3075 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 6G, NEXT UP IS 2515 THIS FRIDAY 7/12
Remember that at 2320s-2330s, I said that your "experts" will STEP OUT AND BOLDLY CALL FOR 2400 ONLY AFTER 2385. I said this again before NFP but moved the marker to 2395. Friday, during the NFP swings, I stated the day's high should be 2392. Sure enough, we tagged 2392.xx and closed 91.xx. And FINALLY, did your experts "confirm" 2400 for you over the weekend? Please don't answer, because this is a rhetorical question for an introduction with some flair. I do not give any f's as to what your expert(s) think but you MAY MISUNDERSTAND WHY THAT IS. For the record, I LOVE HER WORK and respect her a great deal. 3075 by 10/31/24? She is never going to say something like this, BECAUSE SHE IS NOT SUPPOSED TO! And she deserves EVERY OUNCE OF RESPECT FOR STICKING TO HER PROCESS, which with zero doubt, works over the long rung and is great deal of help for the average trader. But you are COMPLETE IDIOT if you think what she does and what I do are the same thing.
When I put out DRAFT 1, which is a move straight to 2500 WITHOUT A CHECK TO 2294, some guy mentioned that he thought it should be 2300 first, and later told me "he told me so". My response was "he was 100% correct but I would show him that I am doing something entirely different. Why? Because calling 2300 FIRST IS EASY because he did not say:
1) what shape
2) EXACTLY WHAT TIME
3) what the response to that should be
4) what the curves should look like on the way up
4) what the effect should be for 2500 rally, 27xx rally, and beyond
5) THAT. IS. WHAT. I. DO. FULL. STOP.
6) evidence?
7) replay drafts 2, 5, and 6B here:
... and here:
... and here:
8) you can go through the entire process and see that:
a) first, EVERY SINGLE ONE of my calls in the continuous updates
b) since BEFORE THE 2293 check down have been true
c) with the caveat that I reserve the right to change route details
d) and since DRAFT1, HAVE ALWAYS stated such changes well ahead of price action
9) the key to my method IS CONTINUOUS UPDATING (if you're a regular, you know this now)
10) the issue is of course, WHY SHOULD I?
For my regular readers, this post is the public re-post of DRAFT 6F. In chart above, nothing has changed except yellow hi-light has been detailed in higher/finer resolution. I am making one final public post because of technical delays on my end in rolling out "WHY SHOULD I?". I have strong conviction that this "delay of a few days" should benefit everyone involved within 40 days of this last post on TradingView before gold's conquest off 2500, 2600, 2750, 3075, and eventually much higher in 2025.
When I put out DRAFT 1, which is a move straight to 2500 WITHOUT A CHECK TO 2294, some guy mentioned that he thought it should be 2300 first, and later told me "he told me so". My response was "he was 100% correct but I would show him that I am doing something entirely different. Why? Because calling 2300 FIRST IS EASY because he did not say:
1) what shape
2) EXACTLY WHAT TIME
3) what the response to that should be
4) what the curves should look like on the way up
4) what the effect should be for 2500 rally, 27xx rally, and beyond
5) THAT. IS. WHAT. I. DO. FULL. STOP.
6) evidence?
7) replay drafts 2, 5, and 6B here:
... and here:
... and here:
8) you can go through the entire process and see that:
a) first, EVERY SINGLE ONE of my calls in the continuous updates
b) since BEFORE THE 2293 check down have been true
c) with the caveat that I reserve the right to change route details
d) and since DRAFT1, HAVE ALWAYS stated such changes well ahead of price action
9) the key to my method IS CONTINUOUS UPDATING (if you're a regular, you know this now)
10) the issue is of course, WHY SHOULD I?
For my regular readers, this post is the public re-post of DRAFT 6F. In chart above, nothing has changed except yellow hi-light has been detailed in higher/finer resolution. I am making one final public post because of technical delays on my end in rolling out "WHY SHOULD I?". I have strong conviction that this "delay of a few days" should benefit everyone involved within 40 days of this last post on TradingView before gold's conquest off 2500, 2600, 2750, 3075, and eventually much higher in 2025.
注释
4:02 PM ET, 118 min from open:1) Sunday night expectations?
2) slow zig zag to 97, brake
3) 2403 brake
4) and 2406-2408 before London
5) check to 2395 before NY
6) spends next 24 hours moving to 2449-2455 around NY OPEN on Tuesday
注释
7) fixed typo already8) then check to 2425-ish before moving to and above 2500 rest of week
注释
6:01 PM ET, OPEN ON OTHER TICKERS HAVE GAPPED DOWN TO 2386.XX 1) but OANDA XAUUSD ticker is NOT MOVING
2) sigh..... this problem again
3) first, this has not change on our forecast yet
4) if you remembered, I previously ALWAYS USED IDC/ICE''s XAUUSD ticker
5) but some time last week it froze for 160 minutes
6) so I had port everything to OANDA's XAUUSD ticker
7) bc (in theory) those 160 minutes would matter for forecasts up to 2750
8) bc it would happen by 8/7 to 8/16
9) but I had come to realize that OANDA's ticker FROZE 5 minutes EVERY OPEN
10) so there is a small problem I have to solve soon
注释
6:07 PM ET 2389.xx11) these missing bars only matter when I use bars that are smaller than 4-hour bars
12) which is pretty much ALL OF THE TIME
13) it will effect minor details here and there
14) but I have a plan for that already
15) as of right now, NO CHANGE TO ANYTHING YET
注释
6:12 PM ET, IF YOU ARE A LONG TERM TRADER16) this affects you NONE
17) why?
18) bc from view of bars 3-hours and bigger (even as small as 2-hours)
19) THERE ARE NO MISSSING BARS
20) this is called "bar count regulation"
注释
6:24, this move means sideways before 9 PM 21) as opposed to 2397 before 9PM
22) THIS pushes 2406/07 back a bit as well
23) no other changes
注释
7:17 PM STILL EXPECT 2406-08 5-6 AM 1) so 10-11 hours out
2) but going to sideways zig zag for next 3-4 hiurs
注释
3) excuse typos, in my car from phone注释
9:35 PM ET, SIDEWAYS LIMIT EXPIRATION:1) in the last 2-3 posts
2) I talked about "sideways limit expiration"
3) and for this rally, it's actually "sideways to up" limit expiration
4) this basically the limit break for 2377-2392
5) this limit, which had called for as late as this Wednesday
6) will actually expire END OF NY SESSION ON MONDAY
7) since it is "sideways to up" and not "sideways"
8) the odds obviously favor 2406 from here to NY OPEN
9) but the "sideways trend since open" needs to start moving
10) or?
11) or it's going to be sideways all the way to end of New York right here
12) this is still very unlikely AT THIS SECOND
注释
13) and why would I say that?14) because 'fair value", if I was to call trend straight up (no logical or adjustments otherwise)
15) has this expiration hitting at 9:45 AM ET, or 15 minutes after NY OPEN
16) this is a a real signal of strength
17) so odds has to favor this sideways breaking
18) and a move for 2406-2408 BEFORE THIS EXPIRATION
19) but why BEFORE?
20) bc obviously the check down after 2407-ish now
21) is 2392-ish
22) and should hit rigtht before this "sideways to up" limit expiration
23) BECAUSE AFTER EXPIRATION
24) is the strong move to ceiling PAST ALL TIME HIGH AT 2449
注释
25) and would take about 24 hours26) this is STILL BANKING FOR TUESDAY NY OPEN AT THIS TIME
注释
27) late would be TUESDAY NY CLOSE注释
7/7, 9:52 PM ET, 2386.XX, so I had previously answered the question:1) which matters more, short term trends or long term trends
2) and said "short term trends matter more UNTIL THEY DON'T"
3) well both short term and long term trends are strong now
4) so the question becomes: which matters more, micro trends or short term trends
5) answer is obvious, micro trends matter more, UNTIL THEY DONT
6) so when does the current sideways move limit expire in our situation right now?
注释
7) it already expired once, but the rejection at 2391 just now has extended this move to 1:30-2:00 AM8) I am always hesitant about price action at 3 AM ET and have stated this many times
9) so I am trying to figure what happens if we don't move strong for 2406
10) like all the odds say we should be soon
注释
11) and to be clear, I DO NOT HAVE A REASON TO BACK OFF THE 2406 CALL BEFORE NY OPEN12) .... YET!
注释
13) so I am not concerned IF we hit 2450, I am concerned with WHEN DO WE HIT THAT14) meanwhile, if you are in-and-out (and I remind you about my reservations about over-trading a strong rally) ...
15) the obvious marker to watch is reaction to 2384.5
16) I will add more soon
注释
17) 10:16, 2386.5 I don't have any reasons to back off 2406 overnight call18) I say this SEPARATE FROM MY PERSONAL CONVICTION OF MAIN LONG POSITION
19) which I have no intentions of moving off until 2510
20) this is just on analysis right now
21) AT 10:20 PM ET, it still looks like 5:30 AM ET 2406
22) 10:29 PM ET, 2387.XX, I'm sticking with this call, it just needs to get past 91-92,
23) and should move up strong
注释
24) 10:37, 2384.xx, the issue is WHEN25) I think I t should be 5:30 AM
26) but I also see that BEARS CAN DELAY IT TO 8:30 AM
27) but remember, the last time that I said bears can push 2380 INTO NEXT FRIDAY
28) as a last resort
29) well they didn't, and we tagged 92 on Friday
30) same situation here but micro
31) bears can push 2406 5 to almost 9AM ET
注释
10:55, 82.XX AFTER 81.XX, getting a very close to a level worth levering upa) bears overstepping vol limits right now
b) could push further, just watch new trend line
c) once that breaks, it's worth levering up here
注释
注释
11:46, 2382.xx, got to bounce off that red line注释
11:56 PM ET, 2382.XX, WHAT I KNOW NOW1) play chart at top
2) we're not going to be on time for 2406
3) bc 2397 is getting pushed to 5-6 AM
4) this pushes 2406 to NY day session
5) and implies 2406 extends DIRECTLY to 2425
6) so that's what we know now
注释
4:34 AM, 2375 stop alarm...1) I fell asleep, this is my bad
2) I'm up, I'm on it
注释
3) this is where I add puts to hedge4) equivalent of sitting out and watching to get back in
注释
5:10, 2371.xx, released my hedges5) with hedge alarms reset to 2367-64
6) that's the immediate tactics
7) there's problem with this move
8) this is really really oversold if we are going past 2525 this inJuly
注释
9) for those not aware, prior to DRAFT 1 calling for 3000 by HALLOWEEN 10) was one draft that called for TRIPLE TOP at 2500 IN JULY
a) followed by rollover
b) and death of bull market
c) while this is somewhat extreme to talking about right now
d) the 48 hour picture has evolved into a "put up or shut up situation" for bulls
e) I fell asleep thinking no way 2377 gets hit, not to mention or 75 or 71 just now
11) the reason is just question of what should average momentum be for July rally into 2600s (topping in early August at 2750)
注释
5:31 AM ET, 2371.XX and where are: 1) in chart at top there are two boxes
2) one at 2450-ish, and one at 2515-ish
3) these boxes DO NOT HAVE a lot of room to move to the right (delay)
4) AND STILL
注释
5) missing typo, AND STILL MAKE IT HIGHER THE WEEK AFTER6) to sum it up: we are going to 2450-and-2500
7) this I have no doubt about
8) but when this hits... matters a great deal
9) from a technical perspective, must either be FRIDAY 7/12
10) or very soon after that, like Sunday 7/14 or early Monday 7/15
11) as in 1 week from now
12) stretching into Tuesday 7/16 implies an eventual double-top at 2500s
13) AS PART OF A BIGGER TRIPLE TOP (March 2430, May 2450, and July 2500 twice)
14) which would rollover into a crash
注释
5:45 AM 2371.XX, TO NOT HAVE A DOUBLE TOP AT 2500s in JULY1) bulls have to push this up 55 points in about 28 hours or less
2) that means 2425 or higher by NY OPEN Tuesday
3) anything less than this, immediately swing odds from 2750 in early August
4) to 2500s double top in July
5) with the first of 2 double tops coming 7/16 or 7/17 (next Tues of Wednesday)
注释
5:54 AM 2369.XX注释
1) I have ITM CALLS hedged wit ATM PUTS 4:1 2) bulls HAVE TO be at 2430 tomorrow
3) in order to prevent double top at 2525 area
4) and that's my base case here
5) I'm going back to sleep
注释
6) BTW, there's not that many ways to go up 60 in 28-30 hours7) meaning, if bulls are going to do it
8) you would know by NY CLOSE
9) it would be obvious w/ a break of Friday's high
10) anything less than that would STRONGLY IMPLY DOUBLE TOP AT 2525 NEXT WEEK
注释
8:48, AM, DROP ALL PUT HEDGES注释
1) the entire bull market gets proven or dis-proven this week2) bulls HAVE TO HOLD TREND OR FACE ROLL OVER AT 2500S NEXT WEEK
注释
3) this really does come down to fundamentals here4) in this case, trend fundamentals
5) bears have put rollover pattern in play
6) the only way to break it is 2425 this time tomorrow
7) which puts 2450 on Wednesday and 2500s on Friday
8) THERE'S NO OTHER WAY OUT OF THIS
注释
9) CORRECTION, not sure 2525 is enough for this time tomorrow10) without detailing the trend maps, I think it HAS TO BE 2435 or higher
注释
11) CORRECTION AGAIN, I personally think bulls have to deliver 50 points in 16 hours12) that is 2425 by midnight
13) in order to break the roll-over setup
注释
9:12 AM, from the perspective of my trend engine14) it's got to be TODAY because there's 2 things happening
15) the "sideways to up limit expiration hits end of NY session"
16) AT THE TIME THE ROLLOVER PATTERN BEGIN TO SET IN
17) this pattern doesn't stop bulls from getting to 2500s
18) but it WOULD STOP THEM FROM GETTING THERE THIS WEEK
19) and that's really all bears have to setup the 2500s double top the following week
注释
20) and bulls have to break this rollover pattern TODAY 21) not tomorrow, TODAY
注释
22) so from a perspective of TREND BASICS23) it is 9:27 AM ET 2374.XX, we are about to open NY down 17 pts
24) I've stated before that despite all the talk about global gold buying
25) this cycle has been driven primarily by American buyers
26) NY session's demands to hold trend is a tag of 2397-2400
27) and close aftermarket 2393 or higher
注释
28) ANY THING LESS THAN THIS IS A REAL PROBLEM注释
29) the uniqueness of this scenario has my hedging level set at 2371.5注释
30) this also means that if price gets above 2378, YOU HAMMER THE LEVERAGE 31) and wind it down under 76
注释
32) 10:58 AM, 2374.XX, waiting for a reason to hammer the leverage33) I don't have that yet, bc first tag of 78 doesn't count
34) it's the check-down of 78 from above that's the signal
35) in theory it should come soon, but UNTIL WE HAVE, WE DON'T HAVE IT
注释
36) BTW there's no 2 ways about this decision today37) think about it this way, the Friday close at 2391 ALMOST ALWAYS LEAD TO A MOVE HIGHER OVERNIGHT
38) this is almost W/O exception in bullmarkets
39) bears stepped up and are forcing the bulls to prove it in the next 24 to 30, maybe 36 hours
40) the bulls' response must be DECISIVE, OBVIOUS, COMPLETE, AND WO DOUBT
41) that's basically how the trend maps look right now
42) even with sideways to up momentum ...
43) it's obvious bulls will reach 2450 and 2500 in this week or next
44) that's not the debate
44) the debate is will 2500s be ceiling for the July
45) I discussed this before DRAFT 1 of this series
46) that a "mini double top at 2450-2500" would be AN OVERALL TRIPLE TOP FOR
47) for March, May and July
48) not moving for 2700s by early August is pretty much open-and-shut case rollover
49) for the breakdown of all trend maps one by one
50) that's what we have today
注释
11:33, AM 2366.x, I'm going release hedges and hammer the leverage here.1) with 63.5 stop
2) why?
3) bulls have ZERO OPTIONS LEFT, except to spike up hard to defend their breakout
注释
4) if we have a bull market, we move straight up 30 before 4PM5) that's all that it is
注释
11:45 hedged up after 62, it's 58.xx注释
11:46, released all hedge, at 58.33注释
11:52, holding at 56.5. after 54注释
12:59, max levered with 7/10 2355 calls1) trading a spike to 70 first
2) to recover the hit for the whole drop since 85
注释
12:30, right now, I am max levered with 7/10 calls bc:1) under all circumstances bear/bull market
2) and everything in between, the first move is 2370
3) and happens in 16 hours at the most
4) I am going to deal with this first to recoup the losses since 2385
5) then we will discuss the double-then triple top-rollover situation
6) while its' not 100% final that's the case
7) the writing is on the wall
8) a break of 65 doesn't happen here unless that's where price is going after this
注释
12:51 PM, 58.13 1) strong chance of tagging 68 before the close
2) not quite 70
3) but it will fix a lot
注释
1:11 PM ET, 2359.5 -- LISTEN:1) STAY LONG UNTIL 1 AM ET
2) THAT'S NEXT 12 HOURS
3) IT WON'T FIX ALL OF GOLD'S PROBLEMS
4) BUT IT WILL FIX ALL OF OUR PROBLEMS
5) THIS I PROMISE YOU
注释
6) odds of striking 2388, from a trend breakdown 7) is like 19/20
8) it won't fix the route past 2525
9) but I will fix any losses you incurred today
注释
10) 1:17 PM, we will hit 2370 maybe 2373 by 5 PM aftermarket close11) by 1:00 AM we, will get really close to 2390
12) as of right now, base case is 2450 THIS THURSDAY MORNING 7/10, 2510 NEXT WED
13) and based on what happened today, that should be end of July rally
14) can anything change this?
15) I am not even looking for one because I need some evidence TO EVEN ENTERTAIN IT
16) if price hits 2450 SAME TIME AS YELLOW HI-LIGHT AT TOP...
17) IT STILL DOES NOT WORK, this is the difficult part to reconcile
18) bc of of short term trends out of sync
19) right now it looks like it's going to be 36 hours behind schedule
20) the math just doesn't work right now
注释
21) obviously our whole project is dependent on a continuing gold bull market22) so I will clarify by 1:30 AM where we go from here
23) the base case right now, is I walk you to 2510 and it's over
24) the "sideways to up limit expiration expires in 3 hours
25) this may help the bigger picture
26) but all I see is 2388, any extension would be under 2397
27) and would fit squarely with rolling top thesis
注释
2:58 PM ET - I AM NOT SLEEPING UNTIL I GET YOU TO 2450, BUT BEYOND THAT:注释
1) I'm here, I"m awake, and I'll get you to 24502) it will take 60-70 hours by noon on Thursday at the latest
3) but beyond that, there's not a lot left
4) except a double top around 2510 - 2520
5) I've ran this scenario like 20 time just now and I can't break the rolling over
6) in chart above yellow route is from chart at top
7) blue route is a mix of a number of different extrapolations and scenarios
8) THEY BOTH LEAD TO A DOUBLE TOP AT 2520, BUT ONLY YELLOW ROUTE BREAKS OUT
9) virtually all other scenarios right now roll over next week
10) I am long with with 7/10, 7/12 call 2355 calls
11) exit 2445-2455 Wed night to Thursday morning top
注释
注释
注释
16) in chart above, the internet is forever17) I am still here and in 6 trading days or less
18) I am going to destroy you, and you will not be able to understand why
19) because it's not supposed to be possible, the calls I am going to make
20) I just do not get why this 2520 is coming late...
21) it's simple top curve vs rally wave
22) if it doesn't reach in time, it turns over
23) I've proved this mathematically many times on 1 second bar or 1-day bar it doesn't matter
24) the only way that it would work, is straight channel from 2450 (NO STALLING)
25) meaning once at 2450... blue route merges with yellow route
26) but that move just about never happens bc 2450 is all time high
注释
27) but remember what I said today28) I am going to absolutely crush you SOOO HARD
29) you'll never let yourself forget it
注释
30) for my people, long, ultra long, leverage long31) I won't fall asleep this time
32) if I gotta go straight to Friday afternoon to get to 2520
33) I'm going to do it
34) I just don't think it's Friday, but next Tuesday
注释
注释
1) there is no doubt that we get 2450+ this week2) for new all time high
3) it should also fall very late Wed night
4) or very early Thurs morning
5) followed by retrace to 2425
6) this is trend engine base case and
7) must complete very early morning Thursday
8) obviously this is followed by a move to 2515-2520
9) when this 2515-2520 high hits IS EVERYTHING FOR THE ENTIRE MARKET AS A WHOLE
10) this makes the two important days Tuesday and Thursday
11) will explain when we cross each bridge
注释
注释
注释
注释
注释
1) so if we need 2520, maybe just 2507-2510, that would do fine2) but WE NEED IT FRIDAY
3) why?
4) IT STOPS THE ROLLOVER and allows for a rally to 2750
5) I've done this math like a thousand times
6) so if it is going to do it
7) THE ABSOLUTE LATEST 2450-2455 high can hit... is like 2 AM THURSDAY
8) so the trend maps HAVE TO BE SUPER SPECIFIC in terms of price/time targets
注释
9) odds are so against it bca) it's all time high, which usually stalls a day (so we were in trouble to begin with)
b) it's only happened (nominally pt-wise) once in its history at the peak of early 80s inflation
c) and now a 42 pt check stall that MUST BE UNWINDED
d) IT'S ALREADY OVER
e) I just don't understand why it would be
f) especially after Trump-Biden debates
g) so I am looking for that route, and it has to be "reverse-engineer" BECAUSE IT'S NOT THERE
注释
h) why would it work? i) that's what happened at 2293 remember?
j) there was no way left, and I wrote that draft that said "this is the only possible comeback"
k) we are in such a situation now
l) but NOT BC WE CAN'T MAKE 2450 OR 2500
m) BUT BECAUSE ODDS ARE LIKE 2% WE MAKE IT ON TIME BY FRIDAY
n) I just vehemently disagree that THIS IS HOW IT ENDS
注释
注释
o) in chart above, that needs to change soon注释
注释
4) continuing in chart above THIS IS A BIG DEAL IF IT HOLDS (too early)5) why? bc it posts 2425 BEFORE WED NY CLOSE
6) which means 2450 and correction to 2425 both are done BY WED NIGHT
7)
注释
7... we would have 2 WHOLE DAYS TO GET TO 2520!!!注释
8) that does not make it a "favorite to happen"9) but if we tag 2404 and close NY above 2400 tomorrow
10) a 2510 high for Friday is still live that we know
注释
注释
THIS POST IS DONE, SO WE FINISH 2520 HERE:注释
相关出版物
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并不意味着也不构成TradingView提供或认可的金融、投资、交易或其它类型的建议或背书。请在使用条款阅读更多信息。