The market focuses on GDP, PCE, GOLD recovers around $2,400

7月23日

XAUUSD fell below its original price of $2,400 on Monday (July 22) as the dollar strengthened slightly, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while markets waited for more data US economists and Federal Reserve officials commented this week to clarify the interest rate cut schedule.

According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 97.4% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 5.8%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 91.7% and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 2. 4%. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold, and are an important support for gold prices.

Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he would withdraw from the US presidential race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party candidate in the November election. But it forced a reassessment of risks in the markets. financial markets, affecting gold prices on Monday.
As noted to readers in yesterday's edition, if Trump is re-elected, gold will be under certain pressure in the short term because Trump has a harsh tariff stance. But there will not be fundamental pressure because gold will still be supported by the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) gradual interest rate cuts.

Markets are currently focused on second-quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) data released on Thursday, as well as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data released on Friday.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold fell to levels around the original price point of $2,400, an area that will be noted as a very important support area.
The area around 2,400USD is a very important support area because this is the confluence of many technical indicators from EMA21, the lower edge of the medium-term rising price channel and the 0.236% Fibonacci level.

If gold can recover to maintain price activity above its original price of $2,400, then overall the bullish structure has not been broken and there is still upside potential. The upward momentum will become clearer if gold can bring price activity above 2,430 USD, at which point the target level will be around 2,465 USD in the short term.

As long as gold remains above EMA21 and within the price channel, the medium-term technical outlook remains bullish, which means long protection levels should be placed behind EMA21.

During the day, the prospect of recovery with the main uptrend will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD
Resistance: 2,416 – 2,430USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2434 - 2432

⚰️SL: 2438

⬆️TP1: 2427
⬆️TP2: 2422

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2372 - 2374

⚰️SL: 2368

⬆️TP1: 2379
⬆️TP2: 2384

7月23日

注释

🟡Gold rises as investors await US economic data

Gold prices rose today, Tuesday, as the dollar continues to decline, while investors await US economic data this week that may clarify the US Federal Reserve’s timetable for reducing interest rates.

Gold rose in instant transactions by 0.2%, recording $2,401.22 per ounce. US gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,403.60.

7月23日

注释

Data released Tuesday from the US National Association of Realtors showed the number of home sales contracts fell 5.4% from May to 3.89 million units per year. This is the fourth consecutive decrease of this index. The slowdown comes as home prices hit another record in June, with the median sales price rising 4.1% to $426,900 per unit. Surprisingly, prices are still rising even as supply has poured into the market in recent months, but home inventory remains at historically low levels.

7月24日

注释

World gold prices reversed to increase in the previous session, ending a 4-day losing streak as investors waited for US economic data to be released later this week for more information on the interest rate cut roadmap. interest rate of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

7月24日

注释

7月24日

注释

🔴Gold rises before important data, and breaking this resistance will push it to a new level

Gold prices rose on Wednesday, as investors awaited US economic data that may affect the schedule for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

Investors are anticipating key US data this week, including the second-quarter GDP reading on Thursday and the June Personal Consumption Expenditures price index figure on Friday, to provide further signals on the timeline for interest rate cuts.

7月24日

交易结束：到达目标

Plan SELL Hit Full TP2 + 100pips🤕🤕🤕. Congratulations everyone

7月25日

交易开始

Plan BUY HIT TP1 +85pips. Heading to TP2 😵😵😵

7月27日

注释

Gold prices increased 1% on Friday (July 26), as US Government bond yields fell due to optimism that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates in September, after data showed that inflation in the US increased slightly in June.

7月28日

注释

World gold prices increased sharply in the trading session on Friday (July 26), as the latest inflation report increased expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting interest rates in September, pulled US Treasury bond yields and the USD exchange rate down. Analysts predict a lack of consensus on the outlook for gold prices next week, when the Fed has its regular monetary policy meeting.

7月29日

注释

The issue of USD policy resurfaced after Trump's interview with Bloomberg, as part of his presidential re-election campaign. "We have a currency problem, as you know. It's the currency." he said during a discussion about policy priorities for a second term.