GOLD fell last week, the market will pay attention to PCE

Although central bank buying and strong Asian demand have created a long-term fundamental bullish trend for gold, XAUUSD , but uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continues to create large short-term fluctuations, mainly with mixed pressure to strengthen the US Dollar's position.

Gold prices rose to a record high above $2,450 an ounce earlier this week as the market began to consolidate expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year. However, the breakout to create a new all-time high was short-lived as gold prices fell more than $100 this week.

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed hawkish sentiment, with the central bank reluctant to cut interest rates as inflationary pressures remain high.
The meeting minutes stated: "Participants noted that first-quarter inflation data were disappointing and that various indicators pointed to strong economic growth. They estimated that it would take a long time." than previously expected to get inflation closer to 2%.”

The minutes also noted that some committee members were willing to raise interest rates if inflation continued to escalate.

This news has delayed interest rate cut expectations and November could replace September as the date for the first rate cut. This change has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher and the U.S. dollar stronger, thereby hitting non-yielding precious metal prices.

Gold market XAUUSD will be very sensitive to inflation data next week
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, will be released next Friday.
Signs of easing price pressures could revive hopes of a Fed rate cut, pushing gold prices higher. If the PCE report is higher than market expectations, it will continue to provide another source of "energy" that has a negative impact on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, causing gold prices to fall even more.
While Friday's inflation data will be the main focus in the economic week ahead, broader financial markets will also be closely watching the latest US GDP and consumer confidence data.

Notable economic data and events next week
Tuesday: Conference Board consumer confidence index
Thursday: Preliminary US Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, pending home sales
Friday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and US Personal Income and Expenditures

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Although the gold price has recovered from the technical level of 2,324 USD noted by readers in the last issue, the recovery momentum was soon defeated by the horizontal resistance level of 2,345 USD, the price point marked with moderate attention. horizontal resistance and also the price point of EMA21.

As long as it cannot break and move above EMA21, it is still not technically eligible to increase in price. For gold price to be eligible to increase in price, it at least needs to operate above EMA21 and return. above the trend line again, this is also considered resistance, creating technical pressure on gold prices at the present time.

In case the aforementioned resistance confluence area is broken above, gold has the opportunity to rally further and head towards the 0.236% Fibonacci levels and the $2,400 level in the short term.
On the other hand, if the $2,324 horizontal support level is broken below gold could continue to decline more to the 2,304 level and more to the $2,300 raw price level in the short term.

Technically, the gold price is in more favorable conditions for the possibility of a price decrease, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing down without reaching the oversold level, this shows that gold still has room to fall.

Notable prices will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,324 – 2,304 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,345USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2371 - 2369

⚰️SL: 2375

⬆️TP1: 2364
⬆️TP2: 2359

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2289 - 2291

⚰️SL: 2285

⬆️TP1: 2296
⬆️TP2: 2301

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Gold prices witnessed a noticeable rise at the beginning of the week’s trading, today, Monday, in an attempt to recover from their lowest level in two weeks, supported by the decline in the US dollar index, in addition to the decline in US bond yields, amid markets’ anticipation of the release of personal consumer spending index data in... The US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation rate is scheduled to be released later this week, which may have a clear impact on the upcoming trading of both the US dollar and gold metal.

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Gold prices rose slightly on Monday (May 27) from a two-week low recorded in the previous session, as investors assessed fading hopes of a US interest rate cut ahead of the inflation report. Key findings announced this weekend.

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🟢Important statements from the Fed...it takes a lot to take one step

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC on Tuesday that the Fed should wait for more significant progress in inflation before considering cutting interest rates.

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- XAUUSD briefly broke below the recent bottom at $2,332 per troy ounce. The price bounced back and has strengthened since then.
- If XAUUSD fails to close above 2,400 USD per troy ounce, the price could retest the support level of 2,300 USD per troy ounce.
- On the contrary, XAUUSD could repeat its all-time high if the price closes above 2,400 USD per troy ounce and challenges 2,450 USD per troy ounce.

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🟢The US dollar tops the list of the most profitable major currencies

The US dollar recorded a clear rise and was the largest of the major currencies by up to 0.97%, benefiting from the state of optimism regarding the continuation of high US interest rates for a long period, especially after the statements of a member of the US Federal Reserve from Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, during his speech at the Global Monetary Policy Forum in London, statements Additional information regarding the course of monetary policy.

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🔽The dollar suffers its biggest losses in two weeks after a strong blow from US data

The US dollar witnessed a significant decline during trading on Thursday, as the green currency erased almost all of its gains from the previous session and recorded its largest daily losses in two weeks despite the preliminary revised higher-than-expected reading of growth data in the United States, as the dollar suffered from the impact of another set of data. Negativity.

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🟡GOLD STABILIZES TODAY AND IS HEADING TO END THE MAY SESSIONS AT A HISTORIC LEVEL

Gold prices moved in a narrow range during trading on Friday, as the precious metal witnessed many factors that enhanced its stability in trading. However, gold is heading to achieve weekly and monthly profits for the fourth month in a row.

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- DXY has remained in a sideways range of 104.00-105.00 for the past two weeks. The index has not yet shown a potential future direction while still maintaining a sideways momentum.
- If DXY breaks above the 105.00 level, the index could retest the 106.00 resistance level.
- On the contrary, DXY could return to around 104.00, and if broken, could confirm the downtrend.

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- The second estimated US GDP growth rate (Q1) reached 1.3% on a quarterly annualized basis (QoQ), indicating that the economy is still growing, albeit a bit slower.
- Meanwhile, markets will be closely watching tonight's Personal Expenditures Price Index (PCE) figures, which could shape their future expectations of the Fed's policy interest rate.
- However, the Fed still gave mixed signals, with some officials issuing tougher statements (hawkish) and others more dovish (dovish).