GOLD trend remains positive, data week is light

8月5日

Due to weaker-than-expected US employment data and market expectations of interest rate cuts, XAUUSD increased more than 1% at the beginning of last week's trading session when the market took profit. As tensions in the Middle East lead to increased safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold has become more attractive to investors. It is up 2.35% this week, showing an overall uptrend.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Fed could cut interest rates as early as September if the U.S. economy grows as expected.
Gold is seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, with lower interest rates reducing the opportunity cost of holding the asset and making gold attractive.
The latest US Department of Labor released jobs data and 114,000 new workers were added in July, less than the 175,000 expected. The previous data was revised down from 206,000 to 179,000. The data also showed the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3% and average hourly earnings fell by a tenth from 0.3% to 0.2%.

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets now see a 22% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, up from 12% previously. The market shows that the Fed will cut interest rates by 86 basis points at the remaining 3 meetings this year.

Tensions in the Middle East increased, demand for gold as a safe haven increased, and Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, leading to further escalation of conflict. Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital after attending the inauguration of the new Iranian president, and both Iranian and Hamas officials blamed Israel for the attack.
These developments further support gold prices as investors seek safe haven assets amid uncertainty.
In terms of short-term forecasts, gold is expected to maintain its bullish trend, driven by risk aversion and dovish Federal Reserve policies. Geopolitical tensions and weak US economic data will support gold prices,

Another piece of data to note is U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showing that for the week ending July 30, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts were reduced by 9,535 lots to 188,909 lots; Futures contracts decreased by 9,535 lots to 188,909 lots.

Economic data and events to watch out for next week
Focusing on the market next week, investors will pay attention to the following important events.

Monday: ISM Services PMI: to be released on Monday, will provide the market with more information on the state of the services sector in the US.

Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision: will be announced on Tuesday and investors will closely monitor its impact on the global monetary policy environment.

Wednesday and Thursday: U.S. Bond Auctions: Wednesday and Thursday's 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions will be closely watched, especially after the strong gains of the bond market this week.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Gold corrects after approaching target level at all-time peak. Note to readers in previous publications that the only closest resistance level was found technically.

However, the profit-taking motivation did not cause gold to correct longer, while the support level at the confluence of EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement pushed gold prices to recover above the 0.236% Fibonacci, which should be considered a positive signal for gold prices.
On the daily chart, the near-term target for gold prices will still be highlighted by the all-time high, price point of $2,484.

As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the trend price channel, its technical outlook remains bullish and notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,431 – 2,408USD
Resistance: 2,484 – 2,452USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2461 - 2459

⚰️SL: 2465

⬆️TP1: 2454
⬆️TP2: 2449

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2494 - 2496

⚰️SL: 2490

⬆️TP1: 2401
⬆️TP2: 2406

8月5日

注释

The ISM services PMI index increased 2.6 points to 51.4. This index is slightly higher than economists' forecasts. The gain was driven by a recovery in employment, orders and business activity, which showed much of the economy was growing at a modest pace. Reports last week showed a weakening labor market and a decline in the manufacturing sector, raising fears of a recession and suffering global financial markets.

8月6日

注释

Gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday (August 5), falling into a sell-off in global markets, due to growing concerns about the state of the economy, although analysts said This will be a temporary adjustment to safe haven assets.

8月6日

注释

Gold soared to near a record high on Monday, as a crash in global stock markets sent traders rushing into safe-haven assets such as bullion and the yen. Rising expectations of a recession in the United States and interest rate cuts have boosted gold prices amid a falling dollar.

8月6日

注释

The DXY index is recovering and could open a favorable week for buyers. Many experienced traders took advantage of Monday's decline to take stock and leisurely enjoy the salmon swimming upstream when the US recession clearly wasn't really in the spotlight.

8月7日

注释

At the end of the trading session on August 6, the spot gold contract fell 0.8% to 2,388.34 USD/oz. Gold prices fell 1.5% in the previous session, mainly due to the global sell-off due to fears that the US would fall into a prolonged recession.

8月7日

注释

What should the Fed do? The longer we wait, the greater the severity of the crisis: Monetary policy is tightening and will become tighter as price and wage inflation moderate. It needs to reach neutrality.

FOMC members' estimates of the neutral interest rate range from 2.4% to 3.8%, representing a huge gap with the current Fed interest rate - about 5.3%. And if a recession occurs, the Fed will need to adapt and cut interest rates to 3% or lower.

8月7日

注释

A Fed rate cut in September has been priced in as 100% likely, and the bank's policymakers are trying to calm markets.

Gold price is below 2,400 USD/oz.

8月8日

注释

Central banks have begun easing policy which is still very important, as policy still needs to be quite tight to bring inflation back to target. They are in no rush to enter an easing cycle quickly. For those banks with enough confidence to cut, many criteria were considered, including the dynamics and composition of current inflation, the expected course of future inflation and the effectiveness of policy making in curbing demand.

8月8日

注释

According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims fell by 17,000 to 233,000 in the week ending August 3. This is supported by lower claims in states such as Michigan, Missouri and Texas. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, increased to 1.88 million in the week ended July 27.

8月9日

注释

World gold prices increased sharply in the trading session on Thursday (August 7), despite encountering a series of unfavorable factors. This stability suggests that the recent correction in the precious metals market may have come to an end.

8月11日

注释

Precious metals continue to have a week of intense fluctuations. During the week, there was a time when the gold price plummeted to only 2,381 USD/ounce and then increased sharply again. Closing the week, the world gold price closed at 2,431 USD/ounce but still decreased by more than a dozen USD per ounce compared to the end of last week.