FX_IDC:XAUUSD的3000 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 2由Binary_Forecasting_Service提供

3000 BY HALLOWEEN DRAFT 2

Either you kill gold bull market today, or everything on list above is going to happen.
1) this is not a debate
2) this is just a math problem
3) fundamentally, why would gold bull end?
4) I don't claim to know all the fundamentals
5) but from technical stand point
6) this is dead last route for gold bull market as a whole
7) not just "a rally on the way"
8) bears have 6 hours before the kill the gold bull market
9) so obviously I choose 3000 by Halloween

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6:44 AM ET, I only realized that today.
1) the last option to be on time for a rally to 2720 to 8/2
2) it has to be higher to compensate for being late
3) AND IT ALSO HAS TO MAKE 1 MEASURED MOVE HIGHER IN 3 MONTHS
4) so that's how you get 3000 on Halloween

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1:09 PM ET 2301.XX
1) if you play chart at top, price did take the first rout
2) 2300 check
3) 2295 check
4) I have channel top line
5) so new schedule is:
a) 7/5, 2400
b) 7/12, 2500
c) 8 7/26, 2600
d) 8/2, 2720

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6) so we are missing one move we have to wait for
7) that move gives us the bottom half of the channel
8) and tells us what 2-way vol should look like for the run to 2720 on 8/2
9) and technically, the other choice is bull market is dead
10) that has to be proven too one way or the other
11) and here's how we go about this:

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12) obviously if price takes route in chart above, that would work
13) but that's not "the absolute dead last choice
14) it seems like price wants to be on the verge of elimination of the bull market
15) as a whole, and we aren't quite there yet
16) how do we know?
17) for the size of this rally channel should be 120-pts ish
18) that's the average for 2-way vol
19 so given that:

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12) continuing in chart above, it's 2301.xx and we have 420 pts under 37 days
13) ahead of us
14) if bulls give us the signal
15) what is surprising about this whole thing is
16) we are approaching bull market elimination
17) you can prove this by layering trends from the top down
18) from Sunday 6/10, I have hunted this move on the basis that we have a bull market
19) that basis is now 51/49 and approaching 50/50 today

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3:53 PM ET: BULL MARKET FACING ELIMINATION:

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1) in chart above there are 3 routes
2) blue route is from chart at top
3) it's dead now
4) so one of two things happen here
5) if price swing down hard like gray
6) breaking 2286 for 24 hours kills the bull market
7) in theory, as long as price remains in that channel up to 7/3
8) there's still a chance of a comeback
9) liket this:

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10) black example in chart above is theretically possible
11) but odds are really low of pulling through
12) let's call this THE 2265-2700 ROUTE
13) at last is yellow route:

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