GOLD ANALYSIS 20/02/2023
My latest research on gold indicates that the first target of $1,827.80 has already been met, and with the hourly 4 chart showing an extension of $1,800.80 ahead, gold is currently trading within its anticipated higher lows lower zone decimal. While the hourly 4 chart has rejected the price-action, any marginal break of the $1,827.80 support has been followed by a $55 point further decline since November 24th, leading to a $1,778.80 lower low sequence before rebounding. I am satisfied with my current results and will not rush into my next move. However, if there is no additional intra-day buying pressure ahead of the US session opening bell, I will engage in new selling orders with $1,800.80 as my handpicked target, without waiting for confirmation of another $1,827.80 support break, which is the only line of defense for buyers. On the other hand, if $1,827.80 holds throughout today's session and the market closes above it, expect a bounce back to the $1,842.80 - $1,852.80 resistance zone.
In terms of fundamental analysis, the anticipated US data could have a positive impact on bond yields and a negative impact on gold. However, this will not be the case if the DX starts losing again, as gold is more positively correlated with the DX and partly with bond yields, only on four out of 21 sessions. It is crucial to understand that with the risks involved on a weekly scale, medium-term sellers will only have a comfortable entry if the February 23rd former high of $1,817.80 is crossed. Regardless, gold will test the psychological benchmark of $1,800.80. The daily chart demonstrates that this is a profit-taking favored zone since March 2014, as bearish momentum is expected to be utilized to its maximum. I can note with certainty that medium-term bearish trend, multi-month selling cycle, is on its own start.
In terms of technical analysis, the hourly 4 chart should turn into a descending channel and progressively test lower low's upper zone levels, as the current session has a 90.17% chance of being a trendsetter with a major move on the aftermath. With the DX on a parabolic uptrend and bond yields on a short-term spiral downtrend sequence, the mix is adding intra-day volatility to gold. According to the cycle, the last time gold formed a wide death cross (April 22nd fractal), the price-action was under total selling domination and engaged in almost a 270-point slide, erasing all three-month consecutive gains on gold. Since gold was instantly rejected within the $1,817.80 - $1,827.80 support zone on the hourly 4 chart, I will treat the mentioned zone as a bottom, with the next technical stop on the $1,792.80 - $1,800.80 zone. On the monthly scale, it is important to note that gold has not yet harmonized with the DX. Bullish reversal is only sustainable if $1,852.80 - $1,862.80 is invalidated with a full candle closing. However, by my calculations, chances are slim regarding that configuration to develop as I am not interested in further buying. Current selling developments confirm technical bearish gradient towards $1,800.80 motion, with the price-action isolated within a descending channel on the daily chart. However, the session's range was $1,818.80 - $1,842.80, which is still within the estimated neutral/bearish daily chart's range of the previous sessions. Healthy bearish technicals are an indication that price-action will approach the $1,800
At this time, I am observing the gold market and expecting the value to fall below the benchmark of #1.800.80. However, it is still too early for me to place a selling order. I will continue to monitor the price action from the sidelines and use the #1,842.80 - #1,852.80 range as my area to re-sell. I anticipate that any attempt at recovery will be strongly limited.
In terms of fundamental analysis, the anticipated US data could have a positive impact on bond yields and a negative impact on gold. However, this will not be the case if the DX starts losing again, as gold is more positively correlated with the DX and partly with bond yields, only on four out of 21 sessions. It is crucial to understand that with the risks involved on a weekly scale, medium-term sellers will only have a comfortable entry if the February 23rd former high of $1,817.80 is crossed. Regardless, gold will test the psychological benchmark of $1,800.80. The daily chart demonstrates that this is a profit-taking favored zone since March 2014, as bearish momentum is expected to be utilized to its maximum. I can note with certainty that medium-term bearish trend, multi-month selling cycle, is on its own start.
In terms of technical analysis, the hourly 4 chart should turn into a descending channel and progressively test lower low's upper zone levels, as the current session has a 90.17% chance of being a trendsetter with a major move on the aftermath. With the DX on a parabolic uptrend and bond yields on a short-term spiral downtrend sequence, the mix is adding intra-day volatility to gold. According to the cycle, the last time gold formed a wide death cross (April 22nd fractal), the price-action was under total selling domination and engaged in almost a 270-point slide, erasing all three-month consecutive gains on gold. Since gold was instantly rejected within the $1,817.80 - $1,827.80 support zone on the hourly 4 chart, I will treat the mentioned zone as a bottom, with the next technical stop on the $1,792.80 - $1,800.80 zone. On the monthly scale, it is important to note that gold has not yet harmonized with the DX. Bullish reversal is only sustainable if $1,852.80 - $1,862.80 is invalidated with a full candle closing. However, by my calculations, chances are slim regarding that configuration to develop as I am not interested in further buying. Current selling developments confirm technical bearish gradient towards $1,800.80 motion, with the price-action isolated within a descending channel on the daily chart. However, the session's range was $1,818.80 - $1,842.80, which is still within the estimated neutral/bearish daily chart's range of the previous sessions. Healthy bearish technicals are an indication that price-action will approach the $1,800
At this time, I am observing the gold market and expecting the value to fall below the benchmark of #1.800.80. However, it is still too early for me to place a selling order. I will continue to monitor the price action from the sidelines and use the #1,842.80 - #1,852.80 range as my area to re-sell. I anticipate that any attempt at recovery will be strongly limited.
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