Gold on the path to test #1,600.80 once again as expected

2022年10月11日

Gold's general commentary: Gold was in the middle of the #11-Month Neutral zone made by the last consolidation phase (April #15 - June #15) before it made it’s August peak. As discussed before, when Gold Trades within that zone, in most cases according to the cycle, Price-action always delivers Medium-term Selling opportunity on the aftermath. I have mentioned that current relief rally will be short-lived and that Gold will deliver decent Medium-term Selling opportunity towards #1,600.80 psychological mark once again.


Technical analysis: On a Short-term perspective and regarding the Daily chart, there is an interesting development with the RSI indicator on a Bearish Divergence (BD) with the Price-action as it is on Lower High's Upper zone since September #26, while the Price-action is on Higher Low's Upper zone at the moment. Similar sequence has happened both from January #11 - #16 and February #16 - #20. Both led to a #3-session peak above the Hourly 4 chart's Resistance in form of the recovery, then Selling opportunity has been delivered. Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance is currently seen Trading at #1,682.80 on Spot prices. If that’s the case, today’s E.U. session will be followed with thin Volume, and as U.S. session is approaching with more Volatility / consolidation, I can expect Sellers to re-appear and push Gold as Low as they can, following the positive DX sentiment due NFP not missing the estimate.(on main stage tomorrow). I will exercise caution since market structure is tight today and tomorrow, while my Medium-term Selling orders (above #1,700.80) are looking great at this point.


Fundamental analysis: Important Trading Week for Gold ahead as the traditional Volatility is visible on the markets (for more than #14 sessions sharp) as Fed (doing the same manoeuvre continously to postpone, but not to prevent the final crash) is deal with Repurchase agreements scheme and inventing such thing as “Federal Debt ceiling”, as discussed many times is traditional Fed's practise as they are about to pass another huge Bill (which will be released shortly) and their main aim is to remove the public’s attention from huge disastrous Bill they are about to pass, and shift it towards Debt ceiling issue. This is Inflation data and always keep in mind Gold's use as a counter to Inflation, but with current hyperinflation growing on Daily basis, I do not see Gold as sustainable sole asset as hedge against it. From #20 - #30 sessions aspect and point of view, if chart is consulted (observing September #3 High’s and September #30 Low’s similarities from few Years back), it is obvious why the Price-action was caught in middle of multi-Month Neutral Rectangle.


My position: Gold is Trading on my predicted values and currently the path is clear towards #1,600.80 psychological mark. Remember the importance of DX in these sessions as I have been waiting DX to find the Support and start recovering (to start re-Selling Gold on Intra-day basis) as DX determines Gold's Short and Medium-term direction. I have utilized current Selling sequence since #1,720's as I don't have aim to stop. My Medium-term Selling orders are running nicely as I have engaged additional Selling order (#1,670.80 entry point) towards #1,652.80 mark first, then #1,642.80 Support in extension.