GOLD traded slightly down, main technical trend

Entering the first phase of the week, XAUUSD decreased slightly due to high US interest rates making gold less attractive. Gold is on the defensive as US Treasury yields rose after Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish stance. Even so, the US dollar has not received any significant support, and in foreign exchange trading the Dollar is still weaker than other major correlated currencies.

• Fed officials say there will only be one rate cut in 2024, via Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari. Over the weekend, the Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari discussed monetary policy, saying it was "a reasonable forecast that the Fed will ease policy by just 25 basis points (bps) in 2024."
That would send US bond yields higher, making holding gold less attractive while the federal funds rate remains elevated.
• Fed Harker said that based on his current forecasts, he believes a rate cut this year is appropriate, underscoring the signal that interest rates will likely remain high.
“If everything goes as expected, I think a rate cut would be appropriate later this year,” Harker said. The data is fine." So we'll still rely on the data."
• Philadelphia Fed President now predicts economic growth will slow but remain above trend and the unemployment rate will increase modestly. He also believes that returning to the Fed's inflation target will be a "long process."
• China's central bank paused an 18-month gold purchase, which also put pressure on gold prices. China's central bank's gold holdings held steady at 72.8 million ounces in May.

In addition, the market is also paying close attention to upcoming comments from New York Fed President John Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
The US will release retail sales data on Tuesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday and preliminary purchasing managers index (PMI) data on Friday. These data are expected to help investors better understand current consumption levels and economic strength.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is still trading modestly with a resistance confluence area created by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance at $2,345, the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the upper edge. The price channel is the main pressure area.

Meanwhile, the current technical trend of gold price is still leaning heavily towards the possibility of a price decrease with the main trend from the price channel.
In the immediate future, the support levels for gold prices include 2,305 - 2,300 USD. If the original price level of 2,300 USD is broken below, it will open up conditions for a new decline in gold prices with the target at 2,286 USD in the short term. limit and more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level.

As long as gold remains within the channel and below the EMA21, its technical outlook remains bearish with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,324 – 2,340 – 2,345USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349

⚰️SL: 2355

⬆️TP1: 2344
⬆️TP2: 2339

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301

⚰️SL: 2295

⬆️TP1: 2306
⬆️TP2: 2311

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🟢The dollar rises as more signals are awaited about the direction of US interest rates

The dollar rose today, Tuesday, as traders awaited an important report on US retail sales and statements from the US Federal Reserve, searching for clear signals about the timing and pace of reducing interest rates.

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➡️The dollar continues to be under pressure due to negative economic data

At the same time, the dollar was subjected to some pressure due to negative economic data, which raised concerns about the economic conditions within the United States, as the United States Census Bureau on Tuesday issued US retail sales data for the month of May, which was negative and below market expectations.

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🟢It is too early to say whether inflation is falling to 2%.
🟢It is appropriate for the US central bank to remain patient regarding monetary policy decisions.
🟢I have realistic optimism about economics and politics.

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➡️THE PERFORMANCE OF THE US DOLLAR NOW

During global market trading on Wednesday, the US dollar index (which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six other foreign currencies) witnessed a decline of 0.08% and reached the level of 105.165 points, affected by several factors

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World gold prices were little changed last night and this morning (June 20), when the US financial market was closed for a holiday and investors were still "hungry" hoping that the Fed could cut interest rates in September. 9. According to some experts, gold prices are unlikely to increase sharply in the short term, but the factors that support the price of this precious metal in the long term remain unchanged...

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🟢Turkey records its largest monthly budget surplus ever, recording $6.7 billion in May, according to the Ministry of Treasury and Finance.

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World gold prices increased sharply in the trading session on Thursday (June 20), after statistics showing the weakness of the US economy reinforced the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would start interest rate cut in September this year. Some experts say bulls have regained the upper hand in the gold market and are aiming for the next target of prices above 2,400 USD/oz.

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This week, many important US economic reports will be published. In particular, investors' special attention will be paid to the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) report for May, expected to be announced by the US Department of Commerce on Friday. PCE - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - is forecast to continue to show a deceleration in inflation...

评论:

- XAUUSD cannot sustain above 2,350 USD per troy ounce. Prices retraced and began consolidating around $2,300 per troy ounce, just above support.
- If XAUUSD sustains above $2,300 per troy ounce, the price could test $2,350 and the high set on June 7.
- However, if XAUUSD trends below the $2,300 per troy ounce zone, the price could drop to the next psychological support level.

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US officials fear that war could break out between Israel and Hezbollah, between political parties and heavily armed militias in Lebanon backed by Iran. The war in Gaza has stirred long-standing conflicts with Hezbollah and other Iran-backed proxy groups in the Middle East.

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On the international market, today's gold price reached 2,331 USD/ounce, an increase of 12 USD compared to the previous session. World gold prices increased when interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds decreased. This makes gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset, more attractive to other investment channels.

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Gold is turning into a loss today as these risks increase

Gold prices fell on Tuesday morning with the opening of the Asian session after yesterday’s rise, and the price of spot gold contracts fell by 0.4% to $2,325.10 per ounce, while gold futures contracts fell to $2,337, a decrease of 0.31%.

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🟢In the US, investors contending with uncertainty related to inflation, interest rates and geopolitics are already bracing for volatility that could accompany the presidential campaign and November election.

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World gold prices plummeted to their lowest level in 2 weeks, penetrating the important psychological threshold of 2,300 USD/oz, as the USD increased sharply while the market waited for an important US inflation report. Some experts believe that the toughness of US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the rise of the USD will continue to put downward pressure on gold prices in the short term, but the gold price trend may change. should be clearer from Friday.