HEADER - This is follow up to previous work.
SUMMARY - This is the route back to 1810, within 36-40 hours or so.
DETAILS - See previous work for details.
SUMMARY - This is the route back to 1810, within 36-40 hours or so.
DETAILS - See previous work for details.
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4:43 PM ET so some raw numbers...
a) bears HAVE TO PROVE IT NOW, they need 1845 by 1 AM ET, to be taken seriously
b) but I also don't have a clear route for bulls either
c) this part is "in theory", but bulls route to 2010 and higher needed a check down YESTERDAY to close the gap
d) so it's starting to look like .... as long as bulls hold 1845 for a few more days....
e) then the "gold bull thesis" remain a live one... for at least 60-75 more days
a) bears HAVE TO PROVE IT NOW, they need 1845 by 1 AM ET, to be taken seriously
b) but I also don't have a clear route for bulls either
c) this part is "in theory", but bulls route to 2010 and higher needed a check down YESTERDAY to close the gap
d) so it's starting to look like .... as long as bulls hold 1845 for a few more days....
e) then the "gold bull thesis" remain a live one... for at least 60-75 more days
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5:11 PM ET here's the last permutation for bears' 1757-1767 10/13 target
a) this one has to hit perfect perfect
b) and you know I hate that bc nothing ever hits perfect perfect
b) and you know I hate that bc nothing ever hits perfect perfect
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c) that's basically saying from 7:30 AM TO 7:30 PM... there's a 70 pt move
d) why does this matter???
bc if you account for regressions for the last 300 trading days, that's what it calls for
d) why does this matter???
bc if you account for regressions for the last 300 trading days, that's what it calls for
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e) if you account for regressions for the last 100 years ALL COMBINED.. THEN YOU SHOULD GET THIS MOVE TO 2010-2050 like this:
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f) you tell me which one is realistic??
g) it's obvious why my bias is the short call, bc I dont' have to do 300 pts in 3 days
h) I WILL SAY THIS THOUGH... a fair assessment of price says we are AHEAD OF WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR THE BULL MOVE
i) we just didn't get the twists that's involved... and that was more complicated by this previous weekend's ISRAEL-HAMAS open gap up... that HAS NOT BEEN FILLED
j) sigh... very very very annoying
k) so what's the strategy... obviously.. if you see 1880 tomorrow, BUY 1890 CALL W/ 1870 PUT...
l) my price mapping says you almost can't lose by Sunday 10/15 open
g) it's obvious why my bias is the short call, bc I dont' have to do 300 pts in 3 days
h) I WILL SAY THIS THOUGH... a fair assessment of price says we are AHEAD OF WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR THE BULL MOVE
i) we just didn't get the twists that's involved... and that was more complicated by this previous weekend's ISRAEL-HAMAS open gap up... that HAS NOT BEEN FILLED
j) sigh... very very very annoying
k) so what's the strategy... obviously.. if you see 1880 tomorrow, BUY 1890 CALL W/ 1870 PUT...
l) my price mapping says you almost can't lose by Sunday 10/15 open
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5:25 PM ET... AND HERE COMES THE INVERSION LOOP:
a) a GIANT CLUE WHICH WAY this settles is the inversion of the move
b) so it would look like this on 4-min bars:
a) a GIANT CLUE WHICH WAY this settles is the inversion of the move
b) so it would look like this on 4-min bars:
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c) for chart above:
d) that's the one I will continuously re post from NOW TO THROUGH ALL OF WED
e) if it means bear, it should do orange loops
f) conversely if it wants 2k++ then it should do blue loops
d) that's the one I will continuously re post from NOW TO THROUGH ALL OF WED
e) if it means bear, it should do orange loops
f) conversely if it wants 2k++ then it should do blue loops
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7:46 PM ET... NOTHING YET, CLEANED UP THE HILIGHTS A BIT
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a) in "anything is possible theory" it can also do pretend to do one path...
b) and sometime WED AM do the opposite
c) but experience says it leans the opposite direction first
d) I am just saying don't be surprised if its orange path to PPI release then just goes way up...
e) if you believe nature is perfect, then...
f) that would be the scenario here
g) bc on IRL 3/4 ratio, that's the move that's "supposed to happen"
h) that's another way of saying odds of 2010-2050 spike should be at least 20%
b) and sometime WED AM do the opposite
c) but experience says it leans the opposite direction first
d) I am just saying don't be surprised if its orange path to PPI release then just goes way up...
e) if you believe nature is perfect, then...
f) that would be the scenario here
g) bc on IRL 3/4 ratio, that's the move that's "supposed to happen"
h) that's another way of saying odds of 2010-2050 spike should be at least 20%
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i) and remember what happened w/ our 10% gray route last night?
j) even though it didn't complete, it went on long enough to give an impression
j) even though it didn't complete, it went on long enough to give an impression
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a) for chart above:
b) i swear, I'm starting to see the morphing to the bull route
c) so it's not meant to follow hilight dead on, it's just a pattern
d) so what it's saying NOW, is it will do a version of orange path to 3 AM ET
e) and then "cross lower" into blue path and follow blue path ALL THE WAY BACK UP
f) this is "hard af" to forecast right
g) but so we will see
h) remember what I said if you have access to options especially futures options
i) straddle 1880, or 1870, it's going to PAY!!
b) i swear, I'm starting to see the morphing to the bull route
c) so it's not meant to follow hilight dead on, it's just a pattern
d) so what it's saying NOW, is it will do a version of orange path to 3 AM ET
e) and then "cross lower" into blue path and follow blue path ALL THE WAY BACK UP
f) this is "hard af" to forecast right
g) but so we will see
h) remember what I said if you have access to options especially futures options
i) straddle 1880, or 1870, it's going to PAY!!
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j) as of this second in time, there are only to valid routes to finish the week from 1875...
k) either all the way down to 1760 or all the way up to 2010++
l) and I keep saying ++ bc the raw numbers are roughly 30 higher
k) either all the way down to 1760 or all the way up to 2010++
l) and I keep saying ++ bc the raw numbers are roughly 30 higher
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9:06 PM SIGH... ugly ugly ugly ugly looking wave development on 30-sec bars
a) I don't even know what they mean
b) I would just stay out of this one over night bc it' confusing AF right now hour to hour
c) just keep in mind there are 2 routes and I favor the bearish one until I see real evidence otherwise
a) I don't even know what they mean
b) I would just stay out of this one over night bc it' confusing AF right now hour to hour
c) just keep in mind there are 2 routes and I favor the bearish one until I see real evidence otherwise
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9:36 PM ET 1861.XX consider:
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a) so just the facts ok? no opinions...
b) those 2 lines need to taken out if bulls are legit
c) at this time, it just keeps looking weaker and weaker
d) BUT
e) the short to intermediate waves DO NOT LOOK WEAK
f) in fact, I don't know what they mean
g) I do know that do imply a move down
h) so in that sense, I withdraw my position that I expect a bearish result
i) furthermore, I don't have a pattern to go buy at this point bc the waves look so strange
j) so my thoughts are that a route in between those two hilights are going to happen with resulting move in the AM upwards
k) but I don't have any real forecast or recommendation at this point in time
l) I really am completely stumpted
b) those 2 lines need to taken out if bulls are legit
c) at this time, it just keeps looking weaker and weaker
d) BUT
e) the short to intermediate waves DO NOT LOOK WEAK
f) in fact, I don't know what they mean
g) I do know that do imply a move down
h) so in that sense, I withdraw my position that I expect a bearish result
i) furthermore, I don't have a pattern to go buy at this point bc the waves look so strange
j) so my thoughts are that a route in between those two hilights are going to happen with resulting move in the AM upwards
k) but I don't have any real forecast or recommendation at this point in time
l) I really am completely stumpted
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m) for example:
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n) see that way that black wave is moving, kind of horizontally but drifting upwards a bit?
o) I've looked at 5 angles of this... dont know what it means...
p) considering its background
q) but I can say that its not bearish, you would need number under 1850 in hours to change that assessment
o) I've looked at 5 angles of this... dont know what it means...
p) considering its background
q) but I can say that its not bearish, you would need number under 1850 in hours to change that assessment
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r) so at this point in time before I go to bed
s) my overall expectation is explosive move up, but I don't have enough evidence to say so
t) I also don't have a route of what that should look like
u) I will know more in the morning
s) my overall expectation is explosive move up, but I don't have enough evidence to say so
t) I also don't have a route of what that should look like
u) I will know more in the morning
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11:38 PM ET
a) so to be very clear here...
b) I can't tell which way...
c) I have many reasons to not agree it either way with the most short term trend
d) that means with the most useful stuff I derived forecasts from
e) they are not giving anything useful
f) the 300 day says crash down
g) the 100 year says crash up
h) so until there is more information, I got nothing tonight
a) so to be very clear here...
b) I can't tell which way...
c) I have many reasons to not agree it either way with the most short term trend
d) that means with the most useful stuff I derived forecasts from
e) they are not giving anything useful
f) the 300 day says crash down
g) the 100 year says crash up
h) so until there is more information, I got nothing tonight
评论:
7:07 AM ET, SO FIRST:
评论:
a) it got above both those lines I talked about
b) so first, as long as price is above both those lines and especially the dashed line right above it, that's bullish, and you expect all the way up
b) so first, as long as price is above both those lines and especially the dashed line right above it, that's bullish, and you expect all the way up
评论:
c) but if it gets under both those lines again, that's bearish and all the way down
d) those two lines dictate price action today, no matter how many swings through them we get
e) extrapolations say we can get a couple of zig zags through them both directions, but these are not suggestive of a forecast so I can't map them
f) this morning bulls are winning about 65-35 on short and intermediate trend patterns
g) so it's hard to be bearish here until the short/intermediate trend patterns give us a signal
d) those two lines dictate price action today, no matter how many swings through them we get
e) extrapolations say we can get a couple of zig zags through them both directions, but these are not suggestive of a forecast so I can't map them
f) this morning bulls are winning about 65-35 on short and intermediate trend patterns
g) so it's hard to be bearish here until the short/intermediate trend patterns give us a signal
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7:23 AM ET REPLAY CHART AT TOP...
a) it's too high relative to the first 3 boxes to say that it's bearish right now
b) plus here is price vs last 2 most recent forecasts
a) it's too high relative to the first 3 boxes to say that it's bearish right now
b) plus here is price vs last 2 most recent forecasts
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c) in chart above:
d) I added a third bolded line for you to see what's happening vs the two paths that I mapped last
e) half way up this page I noted after that
>> d) so what it's saying NOW, is it will do a version of orange path to 3 AM ET
>> e) and then "cross lower" into blue path and follow blue path ALL THE WAY BACK UP
f) this is in fact the inverse of that
g) so it did blue path until 3 AM ET and then followed orange path next...
h) but does that mean ALL THE WAY DOWN...?? I don't have evidence yet
d) I added a third bolded line for you to see what's happening vs the two paths that I mapped last
e) half way up this page I noted after that
>> d) so what it's saying NOW, is it will do a version of orange path to 3 AM ET
>> e) and then "cross lower" into blue path and follow blue path ALL THE WAY BACK UP
f) this is in fact the inverse of that
g) so it did blue path until 3 AM ET and then followed orange path next...
h) but does that mean ALL THE WAY DOWN...?? I don't have evidence yet
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7:54 AM ET - SO THIS IS HOW I SEE IT:
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a) I am expecting this to "find a bear route"
b) why?
c) because it fits all price patterns
d) and it's too slow to fit bull pattern
e) with that said, WATCH YOUR BACK
f) all the hourly stuff has not indicate bearishness yet...
b) why?
c) because it fits all price patterns
d) and it's too slow to fit bull pattern
e) with that said, WATCH YOUR BACK
f) all the hourly stuff has not indicate bearishness yet...
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g) 8:03 AM ET, 27 min to go to PPI release
h) price patterns say bear
i) short to immediate trends are still 2:1 bullish
j) until they say otherwise, I can't be bearish
h) price patterns say bear
i) short to immediate trends are still 2:1 bullish
j) until they say otherwise, I can't be bearish
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8:21 AM ET 9 MIN TO GO PPI RELEASE, THIS IS WHAT I SEE, I AM OUT OF TIME OTHERWISE:
a) for chart above:
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b) one more spike to 1880? possibly...
c) otherwise, THOSE TWO LINES I KEPT TALKING ABOUT DICTATE PRICE ACTION HERE
d) you can always WAIT IT OUT TO SEE IF THEY HOLD EITHER DIRECTION ...
e) conversely...
c) otherwise, THOSE TWO LINES I KEPT TALKING ABOUT DICTATE PRICE ACTION HERE
d) you can always WAIT IT OUT TO SEE IF THEY HOLD EITHER DIRECTION ...
e) conversely...
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f) if price explodes up and get on that third bolded line and passes check down..
g) that's obviously the route up
g) that's obviously the route up
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h) becareful today, you have been warned..;.
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i) and what I think bull route looks like just in case:
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8:30 AM ET FIRST REACTION BEARISH AS EXPECTED:
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a) for chart above:
b) again, becareful, this is by no means over yet....
b) again, becareful, this is by no means over yet....
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c) if we are really going to go down, those zig zags need to happen
d) WHY??
e) bc the lead in to the move was strong BUT GRADUAL, so the bollingers are tight
f) or the standard deviations of price movement are not big
d) WHY??
e) bc the lead in to the move was strong BUT GRADUAL, so the bollingers are tight
f) or the standard deviations of price movement are not big
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8:41 AM 1870.XX STILL BETWEEN TWO LINES
a) upside risk still high
b) it's not over until over, but breaking 1880 upside seems unlikely from this position
c) unless it moves up NOW like NOW
a) upside risk still high
b) it's not over until over, but breaking 1880 upside seems unlikely from this position
c) unless it moves up NOW like NOW
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d) this window is STILL WIDE OPEN:
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e) 8:57 AM ET, that window still open for at least 75-80 min
g) so roughly 10:15 AM ET
h) this is window for it to break 1880 AND THEN HOLD IT
g) so roughly 10:15 AM ET
h) this is window for it to break 1880 AND THEN HOLD IT
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i) new permutation of orange route look like this:
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so then now this:
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9:05 AM ET, bull window now 9:55 AM ET, 50 more min to close.
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9:07 bulls going for it?
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9:08 until it's closed, it's still open
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9:09 AM ET, IF I had a million dollars here..
1) I would take 50,000 and buy 10/20 1875 call
2) another 50,000 and buy 10/20 1875 puts
3) it has to pay before the week is out,
1) I would take 50,000 and buy 10/20 1875 call
2) another 50,000 and buy 10/20 1875 puts
3) it has to pay before the week is out,
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9:15 AM BULLS BOUGHT 10 MORE MIN TO 10:00 AM ET (THIS NUMBER MOVES BOTH WAYS):
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a) for chart above: but they better hold that line at 1872, or they are about to get crushed after NY OPENS here in 14 min as I type
b) regressions say this next 30 min decides not only bulls'last chance for 1880-1885,
c) but the whatever odds of 2024-2025 gold bull market thesis, will get cut 50%-75% on this next 30 minutes ALONE
b) regressions say this next 30 min decides not only bulls'last chance for 1880-1885,
c) but the whatever odds of 2024-2025 gold bull market thesis, will get cut 50%-75% on this next 30 minutes ALONE
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9:24 AM ET BULL WINDOW MOVED DOWN TO 9:45 AM ET
a) roughly 20 minutes
b) strangely, 10, 15, 30-sec bars all favor bulls
c) but the day to day stuff is turning bearish quickly
a) roughly 20 minutes
b) strangely, 10, 15, 30-sec bars all favor bulls
c) but the day to day stuff is turning bearish quickly
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9:37 DAY'S WRAP UP FOR ME:
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a) I'm busy AF today so I can't post much if any notes
b) but the second reaction is bearish and it's 1868.xx as I type
c) the chart right above:
d) that is OUR BASE CASE FOR NEXT 36 HOURS
e) so what bulls have done is push that 1810 target into LATE THURSDAY
f) there's 2 more events in the next 36 hours, so that would make sense
g) at 2PM ET today FED MINUTES, it should not change our picture much
h) why? BECAUSE FED MINUTES ARE ABOUT REVIEW OF PAST INFO, THERE IS NO NEW INFO except how they got to their votes, it's not TREND-BREAKING STUFF
i) at 8:30 AM ET TOMORROW CPI RELEASE
j) that should be nail in the cofffin for bulls
k) so:
b) but the second reaction is bearish and it's 1868.xx as I type
c) the chart right above:
d) that is OUR BASE CASE FOR NEXT 36 HOURS
e) so what bulls have done is push that 1810 target into LATE THURSDAY
f) there's 2 more events in the next 36 hours, so that would make sense
g) at 2PM ET today FED MINUTES, it should not change our picture much
h) why? BECAUSE FED MINUTES ARE ABOUT REVIEW OF PAST INFO, THERE IS NO NEW INFO except how they got to their votes, it's not TREND-BREAKING STUFF
i) at 8:30 AM ET TOMORROW CPI RELEASE
j) that should be nail in the cofffin for bulls
k) so:
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l) see the 2 bolded lines, they are different now bc the situation has changed considerably
m) but those are the lines that dictate price for the incoming 23 hours (bc only 23 hours left to CPI RELEASE)
m) but those are the lines that dictate price for the incoming 23 hours (bc only 23 hours left to CPI RELEASE)
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n) so until then here is the basic pictue on 1-min bars:
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o) so in chart above:
p) there's 2 moves, first to 1858-ish then second to 1870-ish
q) bc I am not going to update until late tonight
r) be aware that it could be this:
p) there's 2 moves, first to 1858-ish then second to 1870-ish
q) bc I am not going to update until late tonight
r) be aware that it could be this:
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s) in chart above, that's to 1844-ish an then 1855-ish
u) regressions say that upside risk is minimal
v) if there is any it would right after 2PM ET so watch for it
w) I leave with 2 reminders
1) if this work helps you trade please please please introduce to other people by word of mouth, this is how you can help me keep going (otherwise, I have no reason to keep doing this unless I can gather a masssive attention to actually make something of it)
2) if I do not update, and price moves notably vs expectations, always assume I was wrong and it needs an update, in that situation trade defensively and trade what you know
u) regressions say that upside risk is minimal
v) if there is any it would right after 2PM ET so watch for it
w) I leave with 2 reminders
1) if this work helps you trade please please please introduce to other people by word of mouth, this is how you can help me keep going (otherwise, I have no reason to keep doing this unless I can gather a masssive attention to actually make something of it)
2) if I do not update, and price moves notably vs expectations, always assume I was wrong and it needs an update, in that situation trade defensively and trade what you know
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... and I know I've said this before, but the more time passes and I don't update the less valid those forecasts are bc the market changes CONTINUOUSLY... so if you are using this to help trade, be aware of that please....
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9:55 AM ET, FROM CPI RELEASE TOMORROW TO FRIDAY CLOSE, WE SHOULD GET 100 MOVE IN THERE SOWEWHERE
a) so its roughly 1867 to 1767
b) that's what the odds say now
c) until they change, that what we can expect
a) so its roughly 1867 to 1767
b) that's what the odds say now
c) until they change, that what we can expect
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10:17 TO COVER ALL BASES:
a) a bull comeback, despite unlikely
b) would look like that starting at 2PM ET
b) would look like that starting at 2PM ET
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10:53 AM ET, 10/11 - THIS POST HAS ENDED: HERE'S NEXT ONE:
a) this is really strange ok... i
b) I still think it finds a way down bc the overall picture says so
c) but the current picture is really BEGINNING to say there's a route all the way up
d) I talked about this in the posts last week... but these things have a very specific look and wave configuration
e) WE STILL DON'T HAVE THAT
f) but WE MAY DEVELOP IT
g) if we don't have it shouldn't bears be favored for 1760???
h) well yeah, but that has a specific boundary for the waves,too
i) and we are BEGINNING to change that boundary
j) while crazy stuff happens all the the time, this boundary has a 250 pt diffference (or more)
k) that's 1760 to 2010++
l) to sum it all up right now, the first box in this posts need to fill out NOW OR SOMETHING'S UP...., or everything's UP UP UP