Selling sequence might be ahead / Gold under pressure

2022年3月14日

Gold's general commentary: As discussed, after critical RSI levels (critically Overbought) and Resistance zone rejection, Selling sequence should be ahead on Gold. Thursday’s session much needed correction is priced in today on the absence of macro-economic High impact news which may heavily pressure Gold, as I was ready to Sell Gold on spot but Fundamentals (Lavrov’s speech aftermath) distorted fair Technical trend. Price-action was currently (throughout March) on the strongest Daily candle since Annual start on (Daily % change) and regarding Short-term, #2,003.80 - #2,006.80 formed obvious new Top. That Gold was Overbought and inflated with a reason - shows current aggressive decline throughout Asian's session. This means that Gold was already Trading in High Overbought waters (since late February) and based on my estimations, yet again I see no space for further Buying unless Fundamental shocks arise. Spot how market speculators were preventing Gold’s decline more than #2-Week horizon (with Bond Yields on Annual High’s) and now on Yield’s Annual Low’s, speculators are preventing further uptrend continuation. All I can spot is decline in continuation.


Technical analysis: With All Charts: Hourly (#1,#4,#5,) and Daily chart strongly crossed into Bearish values I maintain my Selling outlook. Remember when unsure of Gold's direction, look always for the underlying correlations with the strongest instruments. With DX convincingly Trading around the Hourly 1 chart’s Support zone, Gold's answer are current losses and basic Rectangle Trading. I assume no more positions until this Daily chart’s Resistance zone is tested again, which could provide me with another Selling opportunity on Gold along with the confirmation on Bond Yields (recovery candles arriving strongly). If #1,962.80 is crossed and market close a candle below it, then Gold will be calling for #1,917.80 Medium-term Support and former Higher High’s peak. Until this happens, the current consolidation will continue to resemble the January - February #2018 pattern, aiming the last Selling sequence of this Short-term Bullish cycle.


My position: I had intention to await Monday's session and Sell Gold on spot, however, Asian printed decent losses on Gold already, making me remain on sidelines, well preserving my entry points. If Gold breaks #1,961.80, Price-action may fill #1,950.80 barrier Intra-day (signal which I will use), on the contrary, #1,982.80 test and break may arise Gold's Buyers which may push the Price-action all the way towards #2,000.80 barrier. It is dangerous for me to Sell at (#1,964.80 - #1,968.80) since my Stop-loss would be far away (#1,982.80) and if Intra-day trend reverses, I would price in losses. #1,970.80 and #1,961.80 are ideal Selling points.