My first Short-term Target has been reached

2020年3月11日

As expected, Gold is Trading on my predicted values within a Channel Down since the 5th March. This Channel Down has a clear Lower High zone Lower Low zone. This is where a long term trade Sells and Buys respectively (this is an usual sign of indecision). Now, since November 12th the price has put a temporary stop to the downtrend as it hasn't made a new Lower Low. That stop has formed the Daily Support at #1,648.70. This is (if broken) basically the ideal Sell adding zone for the medium term. The lack of a new Lower Low on the Channel Down has made me believe that the time is approaching when the market will put this (Long term) correction behind and call for a steeper fall. But I will need to see the former Lower High to break in order to confirm this Bullish breakout which would restore the Long term Bullish bias (#1,700.80). Today’s outlook had a clear Descending trend (Lower Highs). If during the week Lower High trend-lines break, it will be the first sign that the Long term trend is reversing (higher). The candles may continue under the Lower High zone but if the RSI breaks its line and makes a Higher High then this is known as “Bullish divergence”. Anyway this is an overview of the current situation, but needless to note, I am expecting #1,600.70 test. Deflation on DX will be temporary and would likely produce the kind of fiscal and monetary policies to revive growth. The post-crisis environment might be Gold-friendly, like the recovery from the financial crisis, so I will carefully monitor market in case of Bullish reversal. My Mid week Target been met earlier than I expected as the situation on DX improved, creating very Bearish outlook on Gold especially on Hourly 1 Chart. The Volatility is still high however and Gold may look to set a new Support zone first before hitting #1,600.70. Trade accordingly.