Weekly update on Gold 27.02-03.03
Price almost reach the 1800 area, which is very important area. Price is consolidation around this area for last two years. Thats why I think Gold will react in this area. Also the timing fit for a reaction. It is a new month, so we may see bullish move, forming the wick of next bearish monthly candle.
I have to mention the long-term moving average. MA is important just because show us where is the average of the price. We know that markets are efficient and every time price go far away from the mean it come back and react - consolidation or a bounce.
I marked the two areas, where I think a temporary reversal will happen. As you can see from the charts below in this moment is very early to speak about such bullish move. Price is still very bearish.
Macroeconomics
Every single economic report showed that inflation is going up again. The fear that FED may increase the interest rates more than 25pbs is pushing the yields up and gold down. For now this drive the decline of Gold.
Top Down Analysis
On weekly TM we can see clearly the order block. It also fit with 50% of the wedge consolidation. This level is also supported by monthly pivot points. What concern me is that there is perfect double bottom below the level.
I would like to see how price clear the double bottom liquidity and then I probably I will consider buy setups. Of course if I see manipulation before I will use it to buy.
It is more likely to see 1775 area, because liquidity from double bottom and 1800 level will be cleared. This level also is supported by monthly pivot point, but also from the 4H bearish channel.
Benchmark
For now all metals are going down. In this moment there is no reason to think that something will change. But the price moves very quickly, thats why daily updates are always required.
Yields
Yields are going up. Right now it seems to me that they are at reaction area and may decline for a while, but overall direction is bullish. Considering the current Macroeconomics I see no reason to change the bullish direction, which is bearish for Gold.
XAUUSD vs GDX
GDX is going down, confirming the current direction of XAUUSD.
Gold vs Silver
Textbook price action. Silver reacted of the channel and started to decline. Right now is reaching the 50% of the consolidation, thats why we may see a bullish reaction. Overall I am expecting to see the lower band of the channel.
Elliot Wave
For now the count is right. It suggested that soon we may see small correction and then continuation down.
Volume Spread Analysis
Future market is very good benchmark for xauusd. The volume confirms the bearish move. No reason to think for reversal yet.
Retail Support and Resistance
Price is reaching strong support retail level. Because of the current manipulation I am expecting the SnR traders to be slaughtered. It will be blood bath for these traders, hoping that the area will hold.
Momentum
On 4H, price is moving along with the band, because of that we can not use the band as confirmation that gold will go up.
RSI is bearish and there is more space and power to go down.
I have to mention the long-term moving average. MA is important just because show us where is the average of the price. We know that markets are efficient and every time price go far away from the mean it come back and react - consolidation or a bounce.
I marked the two areas, where I think a temporary reversal will happen. As you can see from the charts below in this moment is very early to speak about such bullish move. Price is still very bearish.
Macroeconomics
Every single economic report showed that inflation is going up again. The fear that FED may increase the interest rates more than 25pbs is pushing the yields up and gold down. For now this drive the decline of Gold.
Top Down Analysis
On weekly TM we can see clearly the order block. It also fit with 50% of the wedge consolidation. This level is also supported by monthly pivot points. What concern me is that there is perfect double bottom below the level.
I would like to see how price clear the double bottom liquidity and then I probably I will consider buy setups. Of course if I see manipulation before I will use it to buy.
It is more likely to see 1775 area, because liquidity from double bottom and 1800 level will be cleared. This level also is supported by monthly pivot point, but also from the 4H bearish channel.
Benchmark
For now all metals are going down. In this moment there is no reason to think that something will change. But the price moves very quickly, thats why daily updates are always required.
Yields
Yields are going up. Right now it seems to me that they are at reaction area and may decline for a while, but overall direction is bullish. Considering the current Macroeconomics I see no reason to change the bullish direction, which is bearish for Gold.
XAUUSD vs GDX
GDX is going down, confirming the current direction of XAUUSD.
Gold vs Silver
Textbook price action. Silver reacted of the channel and started to decline. Right now is reaching the 50% of the consolidation, thats why we may see a bullish reaction. Overall I am expecting to see the lower band of the channel.
Elliot Wave
For now the count is right. It suggested that soon we may see small correction and then continuation down.
Volume Spread Analysis
Future market is very good benchmark for xauusd. The volume confirms the bearish move. No reason to think for reversal yet.
Retail Support and Resistance
Price is reaching strong support retail level. Because of the current manipulation I am expecting the SnR traders to be slaughtered. It will be blood bath for these traders, hoping that the area will hold.
Momentum
On 4H, price is moving along with the band, because of that we can not use the band as confirmation that gold will go up.
RSI is bearish and there is more space and power to go down.
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