Using FUNDAMENTALS as timing CONFLUENCE (NFP week)

BIG PICTURE UPDATE:

- We are not yet in a recession but most likely are headed towards one some time between Nov 2023 - April 2024.

- Stocks will peak within 1-2 moths of a spike in Jobless Claims

- Yields will continue to rise until something bad happens to the economy and the Fed is forced to do QE

- With yields rising, they will take the Dollar higher with them (which is why I'm expecting XAU to head lower for now)


SCENARIOS:

- SCENARIO #1: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes) causing gold to peak by Wed and begin moving lower [this is the ideal scenario]

- SCENARIO #2: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes), yet gold will stubbornly rally/move sideways; in this case NFP will most likely be the launching point of this move lower

_____________________________

- Scenario#1 is looking more likely at the moment. There are 2 orders I'm interested in placing for this trade (if the 1st fails, 2nd should work)