Gold, are we hitting the 1900 area in a wave 2?

2023年12月8日

Gold created a new ATH and was faced by a massive sell of during this week. The fundamentals don't support gold anymore, as the war is no longer impacting the price development and the high interest rates are likely to stay for a while. Beside of that, there is a chance that we ended the impulsive rally with the new ATH and a correction wave two could already have started. One thing is really important to mention: The new ATH was created during the market opening without big volume, ending in a huge bullish trap for everyone who was considering the start of a new cycle rally on gold.

From a technical point of view, the resistance area 2050 - 2070 rejected the price on daily close basis and I'm looking for a short entry if the price will come to this area again. Only a sustained break above 2080 can push the price to higher goals (2300+), because there is a lot of fear in the market after the huge sell of from the top.

As you can see the trend was moving in a rising wedge pattern, which was violated by the strong NFP and unemployment data today. Considering this strong move, we have a first sign, that the uptrend is broken. BUT the level of 2000 did hold and most probably we will see a correctional move from here to balance out the strong sell of. There is a lot of hope, that gold will create higher prices after a retest of the strong 2000 area.

Strategy Long
BUY @2000-2005
SL 1995
TP 2050

Strategy Short
SELL @2045-2070
TP 1920
The selling area is big, so I have to work out how to enter and where to set the SL.

I'll update you in the comment section, if you like to follow this idea.
Let's see what the market gives us.

2023年12月8日

交易开始

BUY @2000-2005
SL 1995
TP 2050

This one is already active. There is a chance of a further decline towards 1980 as this level created big bullish moves in the past. But for the moment I focus on the actual level (1995). The price stopped here was able to grow over 2000 again, we have to observe if it can stabilize next week for further growth.

2023年12月10日

注释

This week will be intense!

‼️ Tuesday: CPI
❗️ Wednesday: PPI
‼️ Thursday: FED IR Decision
❕ Friday: Retail Sales

In combination with the new all-time high (ATH), I would expect very strong volatility again.

2023年12月11日

交易开始

Buying again lower @1998, SL 1990

2023年12月11日

注释

Price needs to
1. Break 2008 to confirm elliot wave one starting from 1995 and confirm the double bottom pattern.
2. Close above 2000, better higher today to make the pullback scenario more likely

2023年12月11日

交易结束：到达止损

Today the short trend continued without any pullback. As I mentioned there is a chance for further decline to 1980, which happened today. This is the last area where gold can react to form the pullback wave B I mentioned in the chart. Otherwise the short trend will continue more directly and there will be no possibility to get in a sell position unfortunately.

2023年12月11日

交易开始

Try again to catch wave B from this point. It's still risky, but I'll give it a try.

BUY @1971-1976
SL 1960
TP 2000, 2020, 2040

2023年12月11日

注释

I made a mistake in drawing the red support line, please check my newest post. I remade this idea there with more information about support and resistance zones.

It's called GOLD, will we see a pullback this week?

2023年12月11日

交易结束：到达止损

The buy at 2000 failed, but the SL was tight, so no big deal.

2023年12月12日

交易结束：到达目标

The 1976 Buy brought a nice profit. You can let a position run on break even if you like. There will be CPI data later, so be careful.

The idea is now at break even again.

2023年12月13日

注释

As you may recognized I made a new analysis, with more detailed price action. Please move to the new one, as I won't update this one anymore.

2023年12月29日

注释

Didn't update this for a while as I told you. But I want to mention one thing at this point. The blue wave count came out to be true and reacted close to the drawn resistance zone. We have the first bearish engulfing candle and need a confirmation soon. If this really is the turning point here, we will see a big move back to the 19xx area, so you don't wanna miss this one. But we can't be sure at this point of the price development.

I will soon publish an update of this analysis with more detailed price action and possible short scenarios in wave C, so keep sure to check my TV profile :)

2月17日

注释

The wave structure is building up nicely, but I'm a bit concerned about the timing of wave C meanwhile. I would have expected the whole move down a bit faster. 1920 can still be reached, but we should be extra cautioned now.