XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detail

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Gold prices dipped into the $2,500 zone on Friday after the US Department of Commerce revealed that inflation remains subdued. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index held steady at 2.5% year-over-year in July, falling short of market expectations. This aligns with the Fed’s potential move to ease monetary policy in September, though the size of the rate cut remains uncertain.

As we head into a busy week with the release of ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, jobs data, and the Balance of Trade, this video breaks down the potential for both buyers and sellers in the Gold market. Will the $2,500 level hold, or are we in for more volatility? Dive into the analysis to prepare for the week ahead!

XAUUSD Technical Overview:
This week, we're focusing on the $2,500 zone. This could be a make-or-break point. If gold stays above this zone: Bulls might maintain control, potentially pushing prices higher and setting up new highs. If gold drops below the zone, Bears might gain the upper hand in an attempt to retrace into the structure-support line of the ascending channel. Join me as we explore these factors and potential opportunities in the gold market. Like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell for the latest analysis and insights!

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Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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As the week kicks off, the stronger US Dollar, bolstered by July's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, has put additional pressure on Gold, extending its decline during the Asian session. Concerns over China's sluggish economy, a key Gold buyer, are also weighing on the commodity.

However, the anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at this month's meeting could help cushion Gold’s losses.

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the upcoming US macroeconomic data, including Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing PMI, Thursday's Services PMI, and Friday’s crucial employment figures, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings for August. These releases will play a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment.

It's also important to note that with the US market closed today for a public holiday, we might see lower liquidity in the market. Given these developments, we'll be closely watching the new structural detail on the 1H timeframe to guide our trading decisions today.

Good Morning

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Gold found some buying interest during the Asian session, despite the stronger US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields. With Fed Chair Jerome Powell shifting focus from inflation to the labor market, there's a growing expectation that weaker-than-expected labor data could drive the dollar lower and gold higher.

This week, all eyes will be on key US employment data, including the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index, JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, Jobless Claims, and Nonfarm Payrolls. If these numbers show signs of weakness, it could support Powell’s concerns and spark a rally in Gold.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could further boost demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. Technically, I’m maintaining a bullish outlook as the $2,490 support line continues to hold strong. It’s a good time to secure existing buy positions and stay alert for new opportunities in this market.

Good Morning

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The sell position remains active as market sentiment continues to deteriorate following yesterday’s global sell-off, triggered by weak US manufacturing data. Typically, such a significant shift in expectations towards falling interest rates would boost Gold, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the commodity. However, Gold has surprisingly failed to capitalize on this.

Today’s focus shifts to the US JOLTS Job Openings, where a forecasted decline could raise concerns about the job market's health and increase the chances of a more aggressive 0.50% Fed rate cut. This narrative continues with Thursday’s ADP Employment Change and Jobless Claims, leading up to the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. If NFPs underperform, the case for a larger rate cut strengthens further.

Given these developments, it’s wise to secure the current sell position while keeping an eye on how the price reacts to the newly identified temporary demand zone around $2,475 for new trading opportunities.

Good Morning

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As we covered in yesterday’s live session, the temporary demand zone held firm, paving the way for a bullish breakout. The breakout above the descending trendline and the $2,490 level signaled a strong confirmation of this bullish bias.

With at least three buy positions now in profit, it's time to lock in some gains as Gold pushes back above $2,500. The move came after weaker-than-expected US job openings data for July, sparking fresh concerns of a hard landing for the economy. This has driven demand for safe-haven assets like Gold, as the possibility of a quicker-than-expected drop in interest rates in the US becomes more likely.

As we look ahead, today's ADP Employment Change and Jobless Claims reports will set the tone for the market, but all eyes are on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). A softer NFP print could further strengthen the case for a larger rate cut, adding more fuel to Gold’s rally.

For now, it’s a good moment to secure some profit and monitor the price action closely. I’ll be providing further updates as the situation unfolds. Stay tuned.

Good Morning

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STRUCTURAL UPDATE | 15 Min Timeframe

See details on the chart👇🏾

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STRUCTURAL UPDATE | 15 Min Timeframe

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Gold continues to attract buyers in the Asian session, pushing over 100 pips higher since our last update, building on the 600-pip surge from Wednesday's buy position. However, this uptick is showing signs of caution, as many investors seem to be holding back until the release of today’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report before making any new directional moves.

Despite this pause, rising expectations for a larger interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are keeping downward pressure on the US Dollar, which in turn is lending support to gold prices. The US employment data this week suggests the labor market is starting to lose momentum, fueling concerns about the broader economy. Coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, risk appetite remains muted, further boosting safe-haven assets like gold.

However, it’s wise to wait for confirmation with follow-through buying before confidently positioning for a continued uptrend. The ascending trendline remains our key guide for today’s trading decisions, especially as we anticipate the NFP release.

Good Morning