XAUUSD update for Week 49 2023

2023年12月2日

Here is my analysis on the XAUUSD:xcme gold futures contract for the upcoming week:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/I4rbAGvP/

Technical Analysis:

Price closed the week at $2071 after bouncing from the support zone around $2040
The futures contract is testing resistance at $2080, with upside barriers also at $2100 and $2130 if cleared
Strong support sits at $2050 and $2025, with the 100-day SMA support lying around $2010 currently
RSI and Stoch RSI near 60 shows room for further momentum upside

Market Drivers:

Rising geopolitical uncertainty lifting traditional safe havens like gold
However, concerns over slower growth may hamper inflation-hedge appeal
Surging dollar strength also capping the upside as inverse relation holds
Market participants balancing growth vs inflation outlook over Fed policy path

COT Positions:

Recent closure of net-short positions suggests futures market leaning bullish
Hedge funds have closed out nearly 30% of shorts over last month
But asset managers increased shorts, capping exuberance around longs

Prognosis:

Fundamentally foggy path with inverted recession signals confusing things
Technically & structurally, the chart suggests break above $2080-2100 feasible
But failure to push momentum higher could mean revisiting $2025 support
Risks to monitor include dollar strength, yields direction & Fed policy guidance
In summary, gold futures have a bullish setup for next week but also lingering risks of sentiment stalling. The $2080-$2100 zone is pivotal to determine if this breakout attempt has real legs or another headfake.