Selling order activated / #1,700.80 mark test very possible

2022年9月13日

Gold's general commentary: So far Gold has failed at attempt to break and close the session above the #1,731.80 Resistance line (now Triple Top rejection point) on Hourly 4 chart, despite an #5-session consecutive Buying run and Monthly High’s test. Keep in mind that DX found the Support zone and should alter the Selling sequence with a relief rally, and on top of that, Daily chart’s Bearish Gap fill is about to be filled nicely (development which may add heavy Selling pressure on Gold). I see no reason why Gold shouldn’t lose with every Hourly candle towards #1,712.80 first then #1,700.80 psychological mark and fully confirm Bearish underlying Medium-term trend. That would be a very same development on any other occasion, regardless CPI is priced in throughout today’s session which could be positive-wise for DX and Bond Yields on Higher timeframes (expect Volatility ahead Intra-day).


Technical analysis: Interesting fractal on Gold’s Hourly 4 chart where Price-action was Trading above the Upper zone of Bollinger bands, which was instantly rejected as always Price-action tends to Trade within Bollinger Bands since #2017 Year. Historically, last time Gold was rejected above the Bollinger Bands on Daily chart (January #6), Gold extended the Medium-term decline of more than #150 points on the aftermath (currently, Price-action may Target #1,678.80 way below Lower Bollinger band line). Buyers are showing signs of exhaustion however remain isolated within Ascending Channel, on the other side DX is testing its #107.500 (former strong Resistance turned into a Support). I am expecting Gold to successfully break #1,721.80 first Support by today's U.S. session as a series of High impact data are released (Chinese, German, UK and US Manufacturing PMI and most importantly, U.S. CPI). What obstructed Gold from breaking the #1,731.80 Quadruple Top was the positive expectations in fight against the Inflation which is evident on Hourly 1 chart’s Bearish Divergence. I remain Bearish on both Short and Medium-term, using such opportunities to Sell every rise which Gold delivers.


Important note: When you fully confirm the underlying trend on Gold, if it is a Bullish - always Buy the dips and take every chance which represents Long opportunity, if the trend is Bearish, use every opportunity to Sell every local High’s / spike which Gold delivers. Another rejection so far on #1,727.80 - #1,731.80 Resistance cluster, after one of the many failed break attempts since early September. If another attempt fails and CPI delivers greater numbers than the forecast, Gold should pierce #1,700.80 mark extension within #1 session on Hourly 1 chart’s Bearish Divergence. I don’t expect August's Triple Top to break without firm cause.


My position: As I have been announcing that I am successfully implementing Top Selling strategy, yesterday's additional opportunity was fine for me where I engaged Selling order with #1,727.80 as an entry point, Targeting #1,700.80 extension on the CPI aftermath. Support lines to monitor: #1,721.80, #1,712.80 and #1,700.80 mark as an final extension.