The fear and anxiety prevailing in the global community regarding the next stage of tensions between Iran and Israel have led to cautious and conservative performance regarding the yellow metal. Since our last analysis on April 10th, Gold has only managed to touch the first upside target of 2410.73 weakly twice, with the second time being today after reports of an Israeli attack on Isfahan. Given the heavy media coverage following Israel's attack on Iran's embassy in Syria and the demand from global banks to buy gold, Gold has experienced sharp rallies in recent weeks. It remains to be seen if the market can sustain such reactions in the coming days or if it prefers to take a step back to make a more rational decision.
To better understand this scenario, it is sufficient to look at the market's contemplative behavior towards Gold during the time of Russia's attack on Ukraine. This attack occurred on February 24, 2022. As seen in the Gold chart, Gold was on an upward trend for several weeks before Russia's attack on Ukraine, but it took a downward trend until late October after the war began. It is not unlikely that a similar event may occur regarding tensions between Iran and Israel. Therefore, medium-term investors need to consider this point and plan accordingly for such a scenario. Although Gold will have an upward trend in the long term.
In the short term, as long as the risk of tensions spreading to other neighboring regions does not appear to exist outwardly and third countries will not openly get involved, intermittent rallies in Gold are likely. From a technical perspective, if Gold can consolidate above 2410.73, its next targets will currently be 2530.73 and 2646.67. Otherwise, any move above towards 2410.73 will be a temporary selling opportunity towards targets of 2343.14, 2318.45, and with less probability 2299.32.
I have also included my preferred trend in the chart for you!
