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RIGHT NOW #024, IRAN ATTACKS BINARY

8/7, 12:10 AM 2387.74. For the sake of time, let's get this up first.

Keep in mind:
1) the "overall price curve" to 11/04/24 is pretty much set
2) what is not set is price action from here to a few days before Jackson Hole
3) I'll go over this after we deal with incoming price action first

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12:24 AM, 2392.35, so first replay #023:

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1) I just know the f-ing idiots will show up and run their f-ing mouth
2) so in post above I already warned about this move:

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3) in chart above I posted that 90 minutes ago
4) but I discussed the possibility of this move in context of war premium
5) and not knowing when I Iran will actually move
6) 23 hours ago prior to the move down stating specifically:

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7) as of 12:42 AM ET, AND 2391.XX, it's still borderline AND NOT AT ALL OBVIOUS
8) that yellow route will happen
9) bc we still don't know if Iran will actually move or not
10) news said they would move in 24 hours but have been saying that ..
11) since Sunday
12) and it's already Wednesday here in New York

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TO REVIEW WHERE WE ARE OVERALL AND SPECIFICALLY
1) first, the basis for the next 100 days in gold, silver and crypto is this chart:

100 DAY GENERIC WITH 700 POINTS OF ONE WAY VOL

2) but as I already stated
3) the 100-pt check down which floored at 2364 came late and got ferociously bought
4) so THERE CAN NOT BE ZERO UP SHIFT IN THAT PRICE CURVE
5) meaning the late August high cannot be 2505
6) the window for it to be near 2600 is unlikely to reopen
7) but the window for that it be 2550 HAS NOT CLOSED
8) all this leads to what should be the gold high in November
9) and I very very very much doubt that that high is 2800
10) RIGHT NOW, I have it closer to 2900

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8/7, 1:16 PM, 2395.xx, so the silver 100-day which is:

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1) I added in notes hours ago that it would look more like blue
2) like this:

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3) it's going to be closer to yellow
4) I'll deal with that in the next few days
5) but I have strong conviction if you want to go long silver (11 months out)
6) you're either AT THE ENTRY RIGHT NOW
7) OR F-ING CLOSE TO IT
8) if that's your thing, just go 1-2-3-4 (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%)
9) or 1-2-2-5, that works too
10) one entry a week or week and half

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11) so the silver trade, is go in now and hold for about 10-11 months
12) if you want to go all the way throuh
13) if you don't pick target and take money off the table

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14) we'll come back to to this later
15) but the first evidence is that silver has to out perform from here to end of Friday
16) so, gold's low hours go was 2379-ish, and I have gold at 2510 before end of Friday
17) that means 5.47%
18) for silver it was:

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19) 26.76, and I have it at 29.50, so 10.24%
20) so we'll review this end of Friday as the EARLY SIGNAL FOR SILVER

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21) and while I am at it
22) let's put in the call for silver's August high vs gold's August high
23) I actually don't know what gold's high will be
24) but my averages place it at 2540, so 6.73% vs 2379
25) I have silver AT LEAST 31.15, so 16.40% VS 26.76

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2:22 AM, 2392.04, so let's start at #008

1) so replay #008, by now we know the the assassinations prevented
2) the early move for 2303, and pushed the 2446 to 2477

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3) in that draft I introduced the "giant V"

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4) this was the basis in which we spent Thurs/Fri searching for the top
5) to find 100 point drop in 24 hours, here's #018 and #020

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6) #023 was previous post and this one you are reading is #024
7) I was going to bed earlier but stayed up to write all of this out
8) bc I thought it was important to explain the whole 100-day gold/silver/crypto situation
9) plus there's a decent chance that Iran goes today
10) at least trend engine is 55/45 while I am typing for a hard spike up

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3:23 AM, chart above I noted earlier.
1) in my personal view
2) the trade is THE LATE AUGUST SHORT
3) which is 200 pt drop one way
4) and the October long 475 pt rally one way
5) THESE 2 MOVES DO NOT CHANGE
6) no matter which binary happens
7) however, it is my strong conviction that
8) the decision of which binary
9) GETS DECIDED TODAY

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8) continuing in chart above
9) so I'm going to bed
10) if this moves to 2355 then obviously no change to 100-day plan as last published
11) and silver 100-day moves closer to blue route
12) but BE AWARE OF SUDDEN REVERSAL UP
13) if that headline hits, it's will reverse HARD UP WITHIN MINUTES
14) so BE AWARE
15) see you in the morning

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10) continuing with chart above
11) so price broke over red line but did not get over "the x"
12) too much hesitation on bulls part
13) and the reason is that because it's Wednesday morning
14) no attack, no war
15) news says US diplomatic pressure and not to mention Russian President Putin
16) pretty much the whole world wants these two guys to back down
17) that doesn't mean that they have succeeded
18) but insofar, it means that the diplomacy through various channels
19) seem to be working
20) so that can't be good for prices here
21) if this continues to be the case this moring
22) I have to believe - despite what trend engine may say - that the result
23) should be a drop to 2355 before a bounce
24) this is not "trend analysis"
25) this is just stating the obvious
26) that every one is expecting heat
27) and there's no heat
28) prices have to cool down further if THERE IS INDEED NO HEAT COMING

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8:18 AM, 2402.98 meanwhile the bounce right now:
a) put a line into this bounce
b) it just hit 2404 as I type AND THAT'S NOT "nothing"
c) but short term momentum can hit 2415 on basis ov breaking the red line alone
d) BUT ANYTHING UNDER 2418 should be viewed with suspicion
e) that it will reverse down
f) bc price is in a position to go vertical and hit 2431 effortlessly
g) and if that setup is not fulfilled
h) this implies hard reversal to 2355

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i) watch blue and red lines for that reversal
j) otherwise I don't have anything to add this morning
k) not even a hi-light route, bc there's no "likely route" int this exact spot
l) price is "waiting on something", and that's my only read of this situation

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8:56 AM, 2405.02...
a) still don't see anything on the news
b) so IF YOU DON'T SEE ANYTHING ON THE NEWS
c) the key level to watch this morning is 2406 (tagged minutes ago)
d) above 2406 means "ABOVE THE X" and move for 2418
e) so the chance of a reversal diminishes above 2406
f) but still exist under 2418
g) why? bc above 2418, price is expected to hit 2432, 2450, and 2468
h) simply by virtue of momentum
i) REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS A WAR HEADLINE
j) bc gold does not rise on war alone
k) once at 2468 the "2505 late August high" is already 2520+
l) how fast you get to 2510 determines if that should be 2540+
m) and right now at 2402.50 and 9:09 AM ET, I am not impressed with the bullish move
n) but I don't have much else to add

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10:04 AM 2400.XX... without a decisive move soon..
a) I would have NO OPINION
b) on a 36 hour basis
c) we move to up to 2500s in late August
d) but what happens in the next 36-hour...
e) isn't clear at all
f) I do know that this is bears' last zone to push for 2350s/lower
g) and the "/lower" part is starting to disappear completely"

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11:07 AM, 2399.82... so the range of outcomes is starting to merge...
a) with 2 differences left
b) what happens next 24 hours
c) which determines
d) will there be a meaningful higher high
e) which would be 2540-ish in case of orange

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10) so continuing in chart above
a) not a lot of value right now
b) with the red scenario the only thing you can hope for
c) but it better move soon
d) or it's gonna be eliminated
11) the other situation is head line comes in
12) and price moves straight up
13) it could happen sure, but at some point, people lose respect for saber rattling

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2:24, chart above is all the extrapolations
1) whether or not there is war
2) price is close to the turn
3) and will take 2 legs to 2500s
4) this part though there's just no telling what which of those it will be
5) things will be all cleared up this Friday
6) I am expecting zero help from Thursday in terms of clarity (unless war news)

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7) 2:33 PM, I still can't eliminate 2355.
8) especially for next 36 hours
9) it's wide open until price makes that turn

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For those not in the group, we've been on #025: