MQP PRESENTS - MY AMERICAN DREAM 3.8 SIX TO SEVEN DAYS AT MOST
已更新
HEADER - This is an improved version of 3.7.
SUMMARY - Regressions show that bottom should Wed 12/28 or Thu 12/29.
DETAILS - I was talking to some people that work on timing cycles. We all agree it's going down. They gave me anywhere from 3-8 weeks. My regression work say 6 days. I am saying 7 days to be safe. See previous work for back ground
NOTES 1 - This particular setup has specific run like this.
1. The numbers are just steps, this is not EW count or anything like that.
2. We are at 0.
3. The first step is zig and zag, quite a bit to 1.
4. Then hard drop to 1680-1700, at 2.
5. Then bounce to 3, drop hard to 4, and finish at 5 next Friday 12/30.
6. HOWEVER, THESE BOXES ARE NOT MEANT TO HIT DEAD ON LIKE MAP IN 3.5.
7. That is because I have a hard time with the holiday in between.
8. I can't get more accurate than this before the weekend.
9. I should have an improved draft available before markets opens sometime Monday.
SUMMARY - Regressions show that bottom should Wed 12/28 or Thu 12/29.
DETAILS - I was talking to some people that work on timing cycles. We all agree it's going down. They gave me anywhere from 3-8 weeks. My regression work say 6 days. I am saying 7 days to be safe. See previous work for back ground
NOTES 1 - This particular setup has specific run like this.
1. The numbers are just steps, this is not EW count or anything like that.
2. We are at 0.
3. The first step is zig and zag, quite a bit to 1.
4. Then hard drop to 1680-1700, at 2.
5. Then bounce to 3, drop hard to 4, and finish at 5 next Friday 12/30.
6. HOWEVER, THESE BOXES ARE NOT MEANT TO HIT DEAD ON LIKE MAP IN 3.5.
7. That is because I have a hard time with the holiday in between.
8. I can't get more accurate than this before the weekend.
9. I should have an improved draft available before markets opens sometime Monday.
评论
NOTES 2 - I swear I am being conservative by at least 12 hours.评论
NOTES 3 - The floor should be around 1640, anything under that is a stick-save situation (at the very least for that particular day, so if goes under that, it should close that day, even that week at 1640-1645 at the very worst).评论
NOTES 4 - so it's A BOTTOM not THE BOTTOM.1) as I guessed earlier , all the boxes next week are about 30 pts for SD modeling
2) the implication the 1650 I see next week is not THE BOTTTOM, just an intermediate low
3) so there should 1 more leg up and 1 more down
4) let's worry about that after next WED/THU 1650 target
评论
NOTES 5 - Bulls still keeping things interesting, with that said:1) there are targets for rest of the day at NY open (they probably shifted up a bit)
2) strong odds 1777
3) reasonable 1763
4) in theory 1750
5) tactical theory says must cover if 1750 gets hit
6) we'll see about that
7) I am even more sure that the intermediate bottom circa 1650 is on Wenesday 12/28
8) but I am less sure about the how we get there, there should be some annoying short term 2-way vol
9) have a good weekend
评论
THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS FINAL DRAFT FOR BEAR ROUTE (3.9).
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