Bear Market Roadmap

2022年1月31日

The bear market has been underway for a while now ever since the top in April 12th 2021 I believe we have been in a bear market and in a distribution phase, even though we did make a higher high later on the year I still have come to the conclusion that we are indeed in a bear market.

The TA i posted a while back “The satoshi Prophecy” while still not technically invailded because in that TA my thesis is that May 2022 is the top for the cycle based on a Fibannaci time sequence of Chain Link, I still think it will eventually it will be invalided coming May 2022 as not the cycle top but as the bottom of the bear market ,you can check that out below.

As soon as we lost the 8/1 Gann on Bitcoin I new things were about to get rocky but I still pushed and thought we were in a bull market because I kept finding things that backed my May 2022 cycle top case for example I posted the blue fibonacci log theory which you can check below .

Weeks later we would break the blue fib log after that there was no case for the bulls anymore , historically breaking the blue fibonacci log confirms a bear market.




In reality breaking the 8/1 Gann and not holding as support should have been the line but I was so focused on the Chain Link Fibonacci count that I did not see things coming, check out below on how we broke support the week of new year.


Normally to trigger a Bull market or continue an uptrend we hold 8/1 as support and break higher like below in 2020.



So what comes next, well looking at the golden multiplier trend lines we can see whenever Bitcoin follows below the last orange line we enter a bear market , right now we have been under it for a while now.



Once below Bitcoin normally bottoms on an average of about 120days and breaks above the orange line in an average of 270 days which would put us in September to break out and amazingly May 2022 for a bottom , amazing that it lines up with May 2022 So what can we expect is a retest of the orange line at one point that ends up in a failed rally happens every time in history in a bear market

2011


2015


2018


Present Day

Showing a possible outcome for this year 2022

So now we come to the most important piece of evidence that we are in a bear market and that would be the June 2018 bear market fractal that has played out 1:1 almost perfectly .

Present Day with June 2018 Fractal


June 2018 pattern


Also cover this in the TA below

It is a mirror pattern , mind blowing stuff and during June 2018 we also had a MACD bearish cross on the monthly which has happened now as well!




So if the June 2018 bear market fractal plays out we retest 33k and create a double bottom sometime in the next 10days maybe and then have a rally to the orange line we talked about before which more or less lines with the 0.618 you can see that in the main chart above . There is this 3/1 Gann which I have been following for a while that Bitcoin can’t seem to break take a look at the TA below .

I believe Bitcoin will most likely fail to break this gann line until we form that double bottom and finally to finish off volume , we had no capitulation volume come in , every time we have a major bottom or top there is a huge spike in volume.


So how I think 2022 plays out

1- Revisit 33k form double bottom
2- Rally to 0.618 or orange line(Golden Multiplier) anywhere from 45k-56k to Mid-late March 2022
3-Get nuked down into May maybe capitulation wick down to 25/27k before closing at 30k
4- Come out of Bear market September 2022
5-Cycle Top June 2023

2022年1月31日

注释

Just wanted to add this chart to show that whenever Bitcoin puts in a macro cycle bottom it normally retests once has every cycle even in 2011 which is the yellow square to small to put two boxes , so if May 2021 was the macro bottom then a retest of at least 30k should happen , at this point it possible that maybe we entering shorter cycles lasting about 400days.

2022年3月1日

注释

double bottom has played out

2022年3月1日

注释

day 151 of bear market fractal , double bottom played out the same .