Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook

2018年11月22日

I just wanted to identify some key 4HR levels to watch over the coming weeks - I noticed that right now Fibonacci is being respected quite well.

If this continues and sentiment doesn't change real soon, then I would not be surprised to see 3k get tagged on the next impulsive trend-continuation leg down. Panic selling is just beginning for a lot of early adopters (guys who bought before 2018).

I would be surprised if Bitcoin can bounce back above 5k and hold there this year. I think we are in for at least another few months of bearish action, especially with the Bakkt postponement.

However I would anticipate strong support at 3k, so even though I am extremely bearish right now, I am super bullish over a 24+ month timeframe and 3k and below is a fantastic place to consider re-accumulating for a long-term hold. The risk-to-reward gets better and better towards 3k for Longs, and worse for shorts.

From my analysis here, I believe there is a 70% chance of a strong bounce in the next 6 months. But as always - wait for price action confirmation before entering any positions. I would like to see more capitulation followed by high-volume buying around previous key levels before I consider going long.

In any case, this could easily get a lot uglier yet. So be careful out there and manage your risk appropriately :)