Exploring Potential Bitcoin Outcomes

2018年3月6日

Before we look into Bitcoin's potential outcomes it is important we look into the coin's previous price action to help paint a more accurate picture, Bitcoin corrected from a high of almost 20k to a low of 5.7k and then we seen pretty substantial bounce yielding a gain of 100%+ pushing us into the high 11k regions(11.7k). This is significant for two reasons: 1. An increase of over 100% negates the idea of a bull trap, 2. The bounce happened in between the 786 and 618 fib ranges, leading me to believe that that this was the start of an impulse up.

When taking a close look at the structure formed at the bounce we can clearly see a a bull flag forming in the 9.1-11.k area and being succeeded by Sub-Wave 3 also while forming a cup. At the time of writing this it is currently forming the handle of the cup and if it continues to behave like a c&h then we can expect the price to land somewhere in the 13.1k region. Another thing worth mentioning is that we are currently on Wave 5 of the structure and we tend to see most of the bullish momentum on Wave 3, another worrying thing about this Wave 5 is the fact that on Sub-Wave 3 we are seeing the containing waves shrink down in size which is red flag in my eyes, with that said, I wouldn't be too surprised if we fail my projection for the Fifth Wave (11.9-12k) and start the the correction into 8.9-9.2k before seeing the next impulse into the 16-18k area.

In terms of what I see happening right now, I am hoping for a bounce around 10.85k which would mean we have not retraced further than Sub-Wave 1 and Wave 5 is still in action, meaning we might still go to 12k before seeing the correction or even a possible extension of the the 5th wave. The bearish outcome is that we are currently on Leg A of the correction down to the 8.9-9.2k area (black line pointing down = C). In either way the mid - long term outcomes of Bitcoin look solid and I cannot rationally see this dropping sub 7k. Keeping that and the current uncertainty of the market, I think it's wise to wait for confirmation of a trend before proceeding with trading or at the very least setting tight stop losses.