Suggest Patience for Consolidation at 100 Day Moving Average

2021年1月11日

The title is pretty simple. If you plot a 100 Day Moving Average on BTCUSD/ XBTUSD (BitStamp has the longest historical data) you will notice that, when consolidation occurs, it solidifies at the 100 Day moving average. Currently that 100 Day Moving Average is right around $19500 (which happens to be the previous bull cycles ATH). In 2013 this retracement trend resulted in a pullback from 250$ to the 100 day moving average at 50$, a 500% drop. During 2017 the 100 Day MA was support for all major retracements, which were typically around a 40% pullback. The percentage of the pull back is less important than consolidation at this moving average. A bounce before another sell off is very likely and I would caution this is most likely a time to sell long positions rather than start them. There is always the possibility for a historical trend to be broken, but if you are trying to accumulate XBT I would highly suggest to be patient for the 100 Day Moving average to join up with the price. It can be seen on long term candles that the stochastic RSI still has plenty of room to fall before reaching an undersold environment.