So I missed the XLM breakout, what now?

2018年9月23日

XLM is looking really interesting - it has broken above a long-term descending trend line with volume. I am hoping for a decent correction now which will give us the opportunity to define the Elliot Wave sequence - giving some more predictability to the move - and let us get in at a reasonable price.

I'd like to see a proper retest of the 9-month descending trend line and find it as support. The prior retest a few hours ago was all part of a single subwave up so I don't consider it particularly meaningful. The retest would be the place to buy in. A reliable timing would be at the confluence of this descending resistance, prior resistance at 0.5 fib from the impulse move so far, EMA 200 rising to meet it and the base of the pitchfork.

2018年9月27日

交易开始

We're right in the buy box. I'm making a small buy now but reserving more for if BTC breaks above the 1H EMA 200 (which it is currently testing). That could trigger the next XLM wave up.

Worth considering that on the other hand we didn't even make the 0.618 retrace and the current formation could be interpreted as a bear pennant, so down is also a possibility. Stop loss tighter than originally shown, just below the EMA 200.

2018年10月2日

注释

I'm still in this position and feeling good about it, we haven't seen a "sell the news" drop around the StellarX launch in the last few days. We've been consolidating nicely and transitioned into an ascending triangle on the USD chart, with great support from the EMA200. I think we can shoot for the median line of the pitchfork on this chart, which coincides with the prior high/resistance at $0.35 for a 40% gain which could be achieved over the next week or so with positive support from BTC. I would consider adding more to my position except for the risk of BTC reaching the 6-month descending resistance line in the next 2 -5 days - the reaction to which I think will make or break all crypto positions on this timeframe.

If you're trading this one now I would enter with a stop-loss 4% below the EMA200 with a modest pot size. Perhaps we're 50:50 on this one with the BTC risk but it's worth taking with a R:R of 10.