Welcome Back, Stellar! (XLM)
已更新
An oldie but goodie, Stellar continues to chug along in the crypto space. Back in the Spring, I speculated that we could see XLM reach a new ATH before Bitcoin began correcting, but this was unfortunately not the case. I did, however, manage to nail the bottom on this one during the previous bear market. Some of those posts are linked at bottom. Here's the main one: 
I think these next few months will provide the last chance for XLM to make a new all-time high and prove a long term uptrend. If Bitcoin makes a new ATH and XLM still fails to break and hold above $0.80, it can make a full retrace of the entire rally, and end up back in the major support zone, between 2-5 cents. In either case, XLM can decline a little on the XLM/BTC ratio prior to its largest move. As I mentioned recently, Bitcoin dominance may need to continue increasing as Bitcoin takes over the market for a time.
So, it'll soon be make or break time. The uptrend channel support has held quite well, and 20 cents seems to have become strong support. I still think it's possible for XLM to reach $5, and perhaps briefly above. The coin got some good news today, in the form of a Moneygram partnership. As regulators crack down on centralized exchanges, the Stellar DEX remains quite a useful (and virtually feeless) option. There are some interesting assets on the DEX as well, such Smartlands (SLT) and Aquarius (AQUA), which is essentially the Uniswap of the Stellar blockchain. Stellar has more functionality than many like to believe. It's time it proves itself. Still a big fan. Let's see what happens. If XLM pumps quickly to the top of the ascending channel, that would put price right back at $0.80.
Again, on the bearish side, I don't want to see price break below the uptrend channel, and I don't want to see XLM underperform again if Bitcoin makes a new all-time high. XLM can move up quite fast, as we've seen before.
This is not financial advice! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
I think these next few months will provide the last chance for XLM to make a new all-time high and prove a long term uptrend. If Bitcoin makes a new ATH and XLM still fails to break and hold above $0.80, it can make a full retrace of the entire rally, and end up back in the major support zone, between 2-5 cents. In either case, XLM can decline a little on the XLM/BTC ratio prior to its largest move. As I mentioned recently, Bitcoin dominance may need to continue increasing as Bitcoin takes over the market for a time.
So, it'll soon be make or break time. The uptrend channel support has held quite well, and 20 cents seems to have become strong support. I still think it's possible for XLM to reach $5, and perhaps briefly above. The coin got some good news today, in the form of a Moneygram partnership. As regulators crack down on centralized exchanges, the Stellar DEX remains quite a useful (and virtually feeless) option. There are some interesting assets on the DEX as well, such Smartlands (SLT) and Aquarius (AQUA), which is essentially the Uniswap of the Stellar blockchain. Stellar has more functionality than many like to believe. It's time it proves itself. Still a big fan. Let's see what happens. If XLM pumps quickly to the top of the ascending channel, that would put price right back at $0.80.
Again, on the bearish side, I don't want to see price break below the uptrend channel, and I don't want to see XLM underperform again if Bitcoin makes a new all-time high. XLM can move up quite fast, as we've seen before.
This is not financial advice! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
注释
Here is the current structure. The local downtrend (orange) is providing resistance. If XLM can get above, that would be a good sign, particularly if it can break and hold the 200 day MA (teal) as well. Right now, alts are waiting for Bitcoin to finish its move. Some alts may start moving before Bitcoin has topped as well. 注释
The downtrend has been broken. Let's see if it can hold above. 注释
Slow and steady :) 
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