XOM : Open long before the Flag breakout !

2016年10月28日

Exxon Mobil, major oil company, has just published its quarterly results. Its profits went down (2.7b$ vs 4.2b$ the previous year). Its cost reduction has not compensated the lower margins due falling oil prices.

Due to this, the stock has opened today with a bearish gap and has drawn a shadow at 85.50$ which is the lower bound of the flag.

Technically, we can now expect the stock to go up for the few next trading sessions because :
- mid term trend is upside, as shown by the ascending trendline support
- the flag is a continuation pattern ; the stock entered it from below, thus it is likely to exit by the top (theorical target indicated on the chart)
- the today's bounce took place at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upside wave (first blue arrow).

Here is the long strategy :
- open long at current price (86.09$ approx)
- stop @ 84.20$ (just below the 62.8% retracement, i.e. the last bottom)
- target @ 88.80$ as a security (expecting the theorical target of the flag to be reached seems to unlikely to happen)

Feel free to leave a comment about this idea !