Long Term XRPUSD Elliott Wave: UPDATE!

2019年10月1日

A few months ago, I provided this update:

I won't rehash my macro view, except to say that I am still very bullish on owning the strongest digital assets each sector over the long haul. Having been invested in the crypto space since 2014, I have seen (and experienced) multiple sets of large pumps that in turn retraced near 100% of the pump in real time, with capital invested.

Why does this matter?
1. I am not a "paper trader". Real $ is on the line. If my analysis is proven wrong, I lose money. My motivation is clear. I invest (and trade) where I believe that there is opportunity. In the crypto space, I invest (and trade) the allocation of money which sole purpose is to invest in the most risky assets on the planet.
2. I strive to be as objective as possible. However, I am invested, and so I bring a set of bias' to the table that those who are not invested would not have.

If you decide to trade any market, know that over time, your win/lose rate will probably be less than 50/50... in fact, most pro traders are wrong more than 50% of the time.
Investing and trading are similar in that the goal is to buy low and sell high (or the opposite if you are "short" an asset), however Investing has different (longer) time horizons than trading. If forex trading as example, my average hold time over many thousands of trades is less than a day. In investing, I tend to look for opportunities that may take years to mature.

Okay... enough small talk, on to the current analysis.
Bottom line, my last analysis was proven wrong. The market has shown that the bear (what I am labelling as wave [(2)]) is still with us. The trend channels that I drew were off, which became clear when the market broken down through them.
As I said, as the market price is the ultimate arbiter of truth, it is the trader/investor who must adapt their view to accommodate the new information... or loose money.

So, I have headed back to the charts to pour through XRPUSD, XRPBTC, market cap trends, BTC dominance trends, and adapt. A few changes.
1. For macro analysis, I am now using Polo charts on TV instead of Bitstamp. I prefer Bitstamp to polo on shorter timeframes, but Polo has a longer time horizon of data. It doesn't have the early years prior to mid 2014 of market data though, so I have drawn the rough pattern out to emulate it.
2. I have drawn 2 sets of bullish trend channels: The top channel on the first channel starts with the Dec '14 peak near .03. The top channel on the second channel starts with the '13 peak near .06. The difference is meaningful in that the slope changes, and therefore the parallel lower line changes.

The implications are the we are either at the lower trendline of a multiple year bullish market of which many future generations will refer to... or....
We have more time and or lower prices to go to hit the lower trendline. The market will decide which one is accurate or if something else is happening and I am wrong again.

The market is about possibilities. I am confident in my view, but holding the door open to see a new reality at the same time. Tough to do, but necessary if you are a trader or investor IMHO.

Good luck out there, I believe alts are in a period of basing to get ready for the next run up. Most bulls start on the back of a capitulation selloff in high volume... we certainly have seen that play out over the past 2 weeks, haven't we? The conditions are there for a reversal, but let the market prove it.

Patience, young grasshopper... patience.