YFI's Grand up-trend to continue? or are bubbles popping?

由cryptosince1963提供

已更新

YFI, Yearn Finance's governance token, saw a meteoric rise to 40k+ in August. This unheard of rise left many people scratching their heads in disbelief (and no doubt deeply regretting not picking up the token for $3-4k when it was fresh off the presses).

I'm sure most of us expected a massive drop or an exit scam, but here we sit, weeks later; and YFIUSDT is still almost three times the price of BTCUSDT.

So what does the future hold for YFI?
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At the moment on the 4H charts it's trading in a downward triangle. This pattern can go either way, as we've seen in the past with YFI the previous breakout followed a downward channel. It's good to buy the breakout in situations like this.

If we pull out a little further, we can see what seems to be an upward channel that stretches back to the intial listing of YFIUSDT on Binance until the present time.Now would seem to be the very bottom of the overall trend channel.

Interesting to note, the previous breakout happened immediately following YFI dropping below it's MA 100 and recovering, showing this may be a strong trend line.

At the moment, YFI is trading below it's MA 100 by a significant margin for the first time ever really. Historically, we would normally take this as a strong sign a reversal is imminent. But we don't have much history to really pull from here so I'm going to need good confirmation of a breakout. Plus the market is looking like a dogs breakfast right now across the board.

BUYING IN?
I feel like I wanted to find a reason not to buy in to YFI, and while the RSI and MACD are by no means promising, they weren't really on the last reversal either. Meanwhile, the clear historical upward channel, and the first major drop below MA 100, leads me to be skeptical of my skepticism.

I'd wait to see a reversal out of the downward triangle, back towards MA 100 level around 30k to make a definitive move.

Potential upwards from MA 100 to previous ATH is 40%. If the historical upwards channel continues it could be closer to 50% gains.

Potential to break down 30% from where it's at to previous resistance. Even more if the DeFi bubble decides to burst, putting a decided end to the upwards channel.

WAIT FOR THE BREAK!!

I'm a simple guy that you don't know posting his ideas on the internet for the sake of improving as a human being. If you take this as financial advice, that's on you.

Feedback, criticism and crude humor are welcome :)

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We got us a downward break from the triangle. Keep an eye around 21k-19k for support, otherwise the ship may be a sinkin.

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Downward break moved into slight uptick. Higher low of channel or momentary retracement?

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Looks to be a decent rebound for YFI, implying a short term downward channel similar to the previous perhaps.

We're moving towards the high point of the channel. If it breaks through, we could see continued growth up to a higher high, as a lower low of the upward channel would be confirmed.

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Very strong move up so far today. Looking to confirm higher low in upward channel.

Realize I misspoke and called it a lower low last night. Whiskey can be a bugger sometimes.