智者生存:黄金进入震荡,后市能否冲击2000交易小Tips:多空争夺剧烈的区间,是考验市场的耐心
复盘分析:黄金上探的幅度逐渐变窄,价格没有再继续上行,虽然出现回落,但是没有达到预期的效果,黄金保持高位窄幅震荡
市场分析:就目前走势来看,黄金白银的多空较量焦灼,行情需要消耗掉阻力才能走出趋势
短期倾向震荡为思路,区间(1970、1975--2005、2010)
中期趋势我们会震荡偏多(中继走势),市场的因素影响,漂亮国的经济预期并不乐观
重点还是关注接下来价格短期震荡区间过程中的多空表现,
如果多头一直保持强势,空头消耗殆尽,行情大概率继续上行(中继走势)
如果空头一直保持强势,多头表现疲软,那大概率会反转下行(反转走势)
Goldtrade
智者生存:避险情绪高涨,黄金能否挑战历史交易小Tips:不要只用数据来判断入场,因为数据影响的深度深浅不一,要看价格表现
复盘分析:由于国际局势的影响,黄金从1810一路飙升2000附近,市场多头强势,行情如期出现上涨,表现非常强势
市场分析:市场避险情绪推动了黄金的价格,如果避险情绪消停,黄金大概率会出现回落,关注国际局势变化
黄金行情受阻,不排除周五获利了结的可能性,如果仅仅是周五获利了结导致,后市还会重新站上2000
短期倾向做空回调的思路
中期关注行情表现
如果如期出现回调,则关注回调的力度强度,判断是高位调整,还是要回到避险情绪的起涨点
如果重新站上去,行情大概率高位盘整继续冲高
暂时关注位:1985-1945-1900
市场局势紧张,时刻做好风控,小心单边的突刺
智者生存:市场连续放鹰,美元强势上行交易小Tips:市场消息就像催化剂加快价格的反应,对于大众来说,接收到消息,远远晚于价格的反应
复盘分析:黄金回落后出现小幅上涨,最后受基本面影响延续下行,再次冲击1900区域,不达我们上涨的预期
市场分析:黄金进入震荡末端,我们倾向向上突破的期盼并没有得到行情支持,市场连续的释放鹰:还会倾向加息甚至大幅加息,以及保持长期的高利率。在这态度下,美元得到了大量的支持,一路上行,拿下今年高点,届时黄金也跟随下行,再次抵达1900区域
我们需要关注价格消耗此次鹰派的空间,关注1900、1885这两个位置的多头介入情况
短期来看,操作倾向反弹做空延续,介于高利率的市场背景,做空比较倾向短期,不倾向长期持有
中期则需要关注此次市场消化这个鹰派的表现,因为利率已经达到非常高位置,市场随时都会讨论停止加息,甚至进入降息讨论,鹰鸽态度转换容易引起价格的来回拉扯
如果1900或1885区域多头介入强势,行情则会继续保持区间运行,多空消耗再选择方向
如果多头介入并不强势,则市场会延续此次市场的“鹰派”情绪,继续下行,则我们需要结合具体表现,寻找市场底部
智者生存:黄金多头昙花一现,关注行情延续强度交易小Tips:个体的买卖行为形成市场,个体的行为是无法预测的,但总体的行为倾向却是有迹可循
复盘分析:黄金并没有如倾向那般继续延续空头,短期87布局多单小幅度获利
市场分析:白银多头发力,行情大幅度上涨,跌势得以暂缓,黄金也跟随出现反弹,关注白银此次多头的延续情况,以及力度变化,白银倾向进入震荡调整周期,黄金大概率也无法延续跌势,黄金大概率也进入震荡调整周期,关注黄金的多头的表现力度
短期倾向震荡上行,关注1900的阻力,关注区间1885-1930
中期关注此次调整的强度
如果多头延续力度不强,黄金大概率继续下挫吸收多头
如果多头保持力度,黄金则倾向走入震荡区,关注多空变化,再选择方向
智者生存:黄金多头逐渐增强,后市趋势何如?交易小Tips:市场的趋势不难判断,难点在于何时入场
复盘分析:黄金价格突破1935区域之后,经历过几天小调整,然后再次向上冲击,符合我们中期的预期,但短期并没有能抓住机会布局
市场分析:较目前市场背景,基本面逐渐鸽派,后面还有降息的预期,这无疑是会提振黄金的需求。图标上,黄金冲击1985区域,黄金大概率需要测试阻力的空头强度,关注1985区域的阻力强度,即空头强度,以及此次的多头延续情况
短期倾向高位震荡然后延续多头,1965-1970区域再择机做多,关注1985区域做回调,关注回调力度,(具体看价格表现)
中长期依然倾向震荡上涨的思路
关注1985区域的多空表现
多头充足、空头不足,行情大概率上破1985继续上涨
多头充足、空头充足,行情大概率高位震荡
多头不足,行情大概率会先回落,关注回落的空头跟随情况,空头的强弱延续影响后市市场的倾向
Gold sold in 1933-1938
The market continued to be in a unilateral decline mode this week. Today gold once again came to the 1928 first-line position. I personally think that the initial jobless claims data later will be even more bearish. So today is the best time to sell gold.
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Follow me, gold will continue to rally.
There are no continuously falling markets. There is no such thing as a consistently rising market. So how to grasp accurate trading signals. Follow me.
At present, gold has come to the 1940 line. The short-term support below is at the 1937 line. Very narrow. So why did it suddenly drop yesterday. It still has a lot to do with the dollar. So how will the market behave when it encounters support. I personally see the rebound trend.
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Gold sells high and buys low
The market is currently struggling with two stocks of news. The long and short sides are in a fierce game. Mainly based on bulls' risk aversion. Bullish on gold. The bears are using the Fed's rate hike as a medium. Bearish on the market. The current price of gold is around 1960. The short-term remained at the 1966-1954 first-line shock. Although there is no big trading opportunity, but when there is a high point or a low point in the band. It is still possible to complete the transaction through accurate trading signals. thus making money.
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NFP报告: 它将如何塑造黄金走势?NFP报告: 它将如何塑造黄金走势?
在交易员对美国联邦储备局再次加息的预期推动下,金价在周二和周四经历了一次上涨(周三横盘整理)。但中期的下跌趋势真的结束了吗?
可以帮助回答这个问题的一个基本指标是本周五(美国时间)将公布的非农就业数据。任何意外的结果都可能导致黄金等利率敏感资产的波动加剧。
市场预测显示,即将公布的5月份非农就业报告将显示经济新增就业岗位放缓,为19万个,而4月份的新增就业岗位为25.3万个。有趣的是,对前一个月的预测也是在19万个工作岗位左右。
非农数据是6月14日公布的通胀数据和美联储同时公布的利率决定之前的最后一个关键指标。
目前市场情绪表明,美联储在即将举行的6月会议期间加息25个基点的可能性为60%,而一周前观察到的可能性为26%。如果实施,这将标志着该央行连续第11次加息。
黄金在1,932美元左右交易,在周二开始倾斜之前达到了3月17日以来的最低水平。虽然周四对该金属来说是积极的一天,但它仍然回撤了当天约一半的涨幅,目前交易价格约为1,960美元。它在1,974美元达到顶峰,这是最直接的阻力位,但没有太多的历史先例。考虑到距离NFP还有两天时间,这个水平可能变得无关紧要。
1,985美元是一个有更多中期先例的水平,但要等到接近数据发布时才能判断这个水平是否需要关注。如果黄金转向下行,可能需要关注1938美元这一支撑位。
2023-6-1 BTC&GOLD:反弹一步到位,临近下行通道上轨,谨慎操作。BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BTC今天下跌的低点打在日线下行通道的中轨,也是之前几次突破失败的下行趋势线,今天回踩测试支撑,但总体走的弱一些,实体部分再次收在上升通道下轨之外,明后两天的收线比较重要。
再看看黄金,大饼这半年多的时间跟黄金的日线走势一致性较高,下面是黄金的日线和4h图:
黄金日线:
黄金4h:
黄金日线在下轨获得支撑,连续一段时间保持在下轨之上,4h今天插了根针收回跌幅,大饼今天下行了一波,不过还没收回跌幅。
基于黄金在上升通道内运行的走势,判断大饼暂时不会走大跌行情,那么可以做的就是震荡或者上涨行情,昨天和今天下行的时候看多较为强势的以太,没有被市场牵着鼻子走,算是逢低做多了,均价在1860附近,目前还没盈利,仍需等待市场走出来。
明后两天的收线如实体部分仍收在通道外,兼之日线临近死叉,则需谨慎操作不看多。
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本文中的信息仅供参考,不构成投资建议。
在任何投资决策中,投资者应该考虑自己的投资目标和风险承受能力,并且在可能的情况下,寻求专业的金融建议,DYOR。
作者不对任何人因依赖本文中的信息而造成的损失负责。
如果美联储暂停加息的黄金目标 如果美联储暂停加息的黄金目标
充分利用美元价格和国债收益率重新走低的机会,黄金成功地飙升至2,020美元/盎司。
美国最近的数据显示,服务业增长放缓,3月份私营企业新增就业人数少于预期,工厂订单连续第二个月下降。这表明,在更高的利率下,经济可能正在降温。因此,市场预计美联储将在下个月保持基金利率稳定,这与澳大利亚储备银行本月决定暂停加息的路径相似。投资者最近将美联储在5月2-3日会议后选择暂停加息的押注提高到约60%,高于前一天的43%左右。
黄金对利率前景特别敏感,因为较低的利率会降低持有无收益黄金的机会成本。
如果美联储确实决定在5月暂停加息,我们可能会预期黄金价格会如何反应? 市场认为美联储暂停加息的可能性约为60%。目标价格可能包括2,027美元、2,032美元、2,036美元和2,040美元,其中前两个是近期的斗争水平。如果我们想回顾一下上一次黄金如此昂贵的时候(2022年3月),我们可能愿意考虑将2,070美元和2,060美元的几个日高点作为更高目标。
美联储的决定还有相当一段时间,所以在此期间,一些下行风险当然仍然存在。
Gold: Latest Trading Strategies
Fundamentals of Gold:
In early Asian trading on Monday, March 13th, spot gold maintained its strong upward trend, with the price hovering around $1881 per ounce, up nearly $15 on the day. Earlier, the price of gold had risen more than $20, as the Fed's "rescue" action sparked an increase in market risk appetite, which dealt a major blow to the dollar and stimulated a surge in gold prices. After Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy, the Fed announced a new emergency loan program on Sunday to strengthen the banking system's capacity, which will help ensure that banks have the ability to meet the needs of all depositors and prevent other banks from experiencing similar runs.
Currently, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March has plummeted from 75% to less than 10%, and the probability of a 50 basis point hike in May has been wiped out. There are increasing calls in the market for the Fed to consider pausing or even cutting interest rates. The Fed and the U.S. Treasury's emergency measures to support banks have been well-received by the market, improving risk appetite and dealing a blow to the dollar. Market anxiety is also running high ahead of this week's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report, especially after Fed Chairman Powell recently emphasized that the pace of tightening will be based on "overall data".
Technical Analysis of Gold:
After the release of the non-farm payroll report last Friday night, the market's expectations for a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March cooled somewhat, and the U.S. dollar index continued to dive, nearly breaking through the 104 level. Driven by the risk aversion sparked by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the non-farm payroll report, spot gold broke through three key levels of $1850, $1860, and $1870, before giving back some gains to close up 1.97% at $1867.03 per ounce, marking a new closing high since February 10th and achieving two consecutive weeks of gains. The highest point of gold was around 1869, with the closing price settling around 1867 in the following period.
On the 4-hour chart, a bottom-up rebound wave broke through the secondary high of 1858 to form a reversal, while the double bottom rebound of 1805 and 1810 formed a 4-hour double bottom rebound, with the neckline of 1858 forming a breakthrough. The top-bottom reversal this week has changed from resistance to support at 1858, which is the reversal point of the neckline and also the support of the bulls. The 4-hour chart also shows a bottom-up rebound, which is also an upward wave, with a wave of 1810 forming a surge in volume, and after a retracement, it is gathering strength again.
In the beginning of the week, pay attention to the second rebound support point. In the short term, there may be some back and forth, as this is the first upward reversal and the moving average indicator has not yet turned upward, so short-term consolidation is needed. On the 1-hour chart, gold is oscillating upwards based on the middle rail. Last Friday, it broke through 1858 and retraced to 1854 before stabilizing, which is also the strong and weak critical point of this week, and strength will not break below 1854. In the Asian session, there is a gap in prices, so it is not urgent to chase the high, wait for the gap to be filled before participating in a low long position.
Trading Strategy:
Short around $1885, take profit at $1870-1865;
Long around $1865, take profit at $1880-1890
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