Goldtradingstrategy
Gold sells high and buys low
The market is currently struggling with two stocks of news. The long and short sides are in a fierce game. Mainly based on bulls' risk aversion. Bullish on gold. The bears are using the Fed's rate hike as a medium. Bearish on the market. The current price of gold is around 1960. The short-term remained at the 1966-1954 first-line shock. Although there is no big trading opportunity, but when there is a high point or a low point in the band. It is still possible to complete the transaction through accurate trading signals. thus making money.
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如果美联储暂停加息的黄金目标 如果美联储暂停加息的黄金目标
充分利用美元价格和国债收益率重新走低的机会,黄金成功地飙升至2,020美元/盎司。
美国最近的数据显示,服务业增长放缓,3月份私营企业新增就业人数少于预期,工厂订单连续第二个月下降。这表明,在更高的利率下,经济可能正在降温。因此,市场预计美联储将在下个月保持基金利率稳定,这与澳大利亚储备银行本月决定暂停加息的路径相似。投资者最近将美联储在5月2-3日会议后选择暂停加息的押注提高到约60%,高于前一天的43%左右。
黄金对利率前景特别敏感,因为较低的利率会降低持有无收益黄金的机会成本。
如果美联储确实决定在5月暂停加息,我们可能会预期黄金价格会如何反应? 市场认为美联储暂停加息的可能性约为60%。目标价格可能包括2,027美元、2,032美元、2,036美元和2,040美元,其中前两个是近期的斗争水平。如果我们想回顾一下上一次黄金如此昂贵的时候(2022年3月),我们可能愿意考虑将2,070美元和2,060美元的几个日高点作为更高目标。
美联储的决定还有相当一段时间,所以在此期间,一些下行风险当然仍然存在。
黄金还有希望达到2000美元吗?黄金还有希望达到2000美元吗?
黄金价格创下了1971美元/盎司的高点,然后回撤并在1960美元上方找到支撑。涨势喜人的股市和较高的国债收益率使XAU/USD难以继续其近期的涨势。对更广泛的银行业蔓延的担忧也有所减弱,损害了对更安全资产的需求。市场对第一公民银行同意购买破产的硅谷银行的所有存款和贷款感到高兴。美联储负责监管的副主席迈克尔-巴尔(Michael Barr)表示,SVB的麻烦是由于 "糟糕的 "风险管理,这可能是一个孤立的案例。
此外,DXY指数为102.60,上涨了0.20%,为黄金增加了砝码,因为市场仍然预计美联储将在5月份加息25个基点。通货膨胀的可能性大于银行危机进一步蔓延的可能性,导致投资者对5月份加息25个基点的可能性进行了定价,约为39%。
尽管如此,黄金仍将出现8%左右的月度涨幅,月度图表上出现了明显的看涨吞噬形态,这表明短期前景看涨。
投资者还在关注核心个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数,该指数预计将在本周末公布,以获得有关美联储货币紧缩计划的更多线索。如果核心PCE指数低于4.5%,那么美联储将不得不减少加息,这将削弱美元并使黄金上涨。在这种情况下,买家的目标可能是1,900美元。
Gold: Latest Trading Strategies
Fundamentals of Gold:
In early Asian trading on Monday, March 13th, spot gold maintained its strong upward trend, with the price hovering around $1881 per ounce, up nearly $15 on the day. Earlier, the price of gold had risen more than $20, as the Fed's "rescue" action sparked an increase in market risk appetite, which dealt a major blow to the dollar and stimulated a surge in gold prices. After Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy, the Fed announced a new emergency loan program on Sunday to strengthen the banking system's capacity, which will help ensure that banks have the ability to meet the needs of all depositors and prevent other banks from experiencing similar runs.
Currently, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March has plummeted from 75% to less than 10%, and the probability of a 50 basis point hike in May has been wiped out. There are increasing calls in the market for the Fed to consider pausing or even cutting interest rates. The Fed and the U.S. Treasury's emergency measures to support banks have been well-received by the market, improving risk appetite and dealing a blow to the dollar. Market anxiety is also running high ahead of this week's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report, especially after Fed Chairman Powell recently emphasized that the pace of tightening will be based on "overall data".
Technical Analysis of Gold:
After the release of the non-farm payroll report last Friday night, the market's expectations for a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March cooled somewhat, and the U.S. dollar index continued to dive, nearly breaking through the 104 level. Driven by the risk aversion sparked by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the non-farm payroll report, spot gold broke through three key levels of $1850, $1860, and $1870, before giving back some gains to close up 1.97% at $1867.03 per ounce, marking a new closing high since February 10th and achieving two consecutive weeks of gains. The highest point of gold was around 1869, with the closing price settling around 1867 in the following period.
On the 4-hour chart, a bottom-up rebound wave broke through the secondary high of 1858 to form a reversal, while the double bottom rebound of 1805 and 1810 formed a 4-hour double bottom rebound, with the neckline of 1858 forming a breakthrough. The top-bottom reversal this week has changed from resistance to support at 1858, which is the reversal point of the neckline and also the support of the bulls. The 4-hour chart also shows a bottom-up rebound, which is also an upward wave, with a wave of 1810 forming a surge in volume, and after a retracement, it is gathering strength again.
In the beginning of the week, pay attention to the second rebound support point. In the short term, there may be some back and forth, as this is the first upward reversal and the moving average indicator has not yet turned upward, so short-term consolidation is needed. On the 1-hour chart, gold is oscillating upwards based on the middle rail. Last Friday, it broke through 1858 and retraced to 1854 before stabilizing, which is also the strong and weak critical point of this week, and strength will not break below 1854. In the Asian session, there is a gap in prices, so it is not urgent to chase the high, wait for the gap to be filled before participating in a low long position.
Trading Strategy:
Short around $1885, take profit at $1870-1865;
Long around $1865, take profit at $1880-1890
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韭菜平凡之路:残羹剩饭行情,黄金周线目标1780,亚欧盘偏空观望,港股收盘后可进场,美盘低多,短线止盈5美元,止损1.5~3美元周五不会跌破1765,多头值得一博的就是主力资金可能在周五美盘时段把周线收盘做到1780。港股收盘之前避免操作。1780以上不追高。
日内套利策略:
港股收盘后,开始短线低多,
1773以上不追,跌破1770观望
1771博反弹,止盈3~4美元,止损1.5美元
下破1770退守1768低多,1774止盈半仓,
留半仓看看是否拉到1780再平仓过周末。
亚欧盘空头在1775上方持续压制,日内变盘时间点还是在中国股市、港股收盘以后,多空发力,博弈加大。
意外下杀到1764~1760
一定是诱空,坚决做多
止损放宽到4美元
止盈7~10美元
利空消息已经出尽,
黄金周五并没有实质利空
只剩下多空技术博弈
突破阻力,
回踩1776
我认为这个上行通道
有误导性,
也避免追涨,
很容易打损,
利润空间也小
因为港股收盘前只会出现鸡肋行情,过早入场只会来回扫损。欧美股市休假,加上非农等消息面干扰已经过去,市场波动幅度降低,资金博弈意愿弱。周末消息面不确定性到来,加上周末美国各州可能出现新增病例激增,避险情绪升温,周五应该看多黄金。