惠誉确认广东能源的评级为'A';展望稳定

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)

本文章英文原文最初于2021年3月24日发布于：

https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10156405

Fitch Affirms Guangdong Energy at 'A'; Outlook Stable

惠誉评级已确认广东省能源集团有限公司（广东能源）的长期外币发行人违约评级和高级无抵押评级为'A'，展望稳定。

惠誉同时确认广东能源票息率3.0%、2024年到期的5亿美元债券的评级为'A'。该债券由广东能源的全资子公司UHI Capital Ltd.发行，由广东能源提供无条件、不可撤销的担保。

基于惠誉的《政府相关企业评级标准》，广东能源的评级与惠誉对广东省政府信用状况的内部评估结果相关联，但不等同。这是基于，作为广东省政府直接管辖的唯一省级能源平台，广东能源在保障地方能源供给方面发挥着至关重要的作用。

关键评级驱动因素

与广东省政府的关联性强：惠誉评定广东能源的法律地位及政府持股和控制程度为“强”。广东省人民政府国有资产监督管理委员会（广东省国资委）对该公司持股76%并对其战略和运营具有广泛的控制力，该公司的重要管理人员亦由省政府直接任命。惠誉评定广东能源以往获得的政府支持力度为“强” ，体现在来自政府的持续补贴及广东能源强劲的独立信用状况。

违约带来的社会政治影响为“强”：惠誉评定广东能源若违约将带来的社会政治影响为“强”。广东能源是广东省最大的发电企业，其装机容量占省内装机容量的四分之一，且肩负保障地方能源供给的重任。此外，广东能源对广东省政府推进天然气应用、实现气源多元化和改造升级天然气基础设施具有战略重要意义。

广东能源的管理层表示，2020年该公司自主采购天然气占广东省约四分之一的海外天然气（不包含三桶油公司提供的天然气），并正在建设液化天然气基础设施，计划中的四个液化天然气接收站建成后年总接收能力将达到250亿立方米。

违约带来的融资影响为“很强”：广东能源占其名义上的母公司广东恒健投资控股有限公司（恒健，A+/稳定）的资产比例过半数，且恒健的经营利润几乎全部来自广东能源。恒健是广东省国资委下属最大企业（以业务营收衡量）。广东能源和恒健是广东省国有企业中最活跃的债券发行人之一。广东能源若违约将有损恒健的融资渠道，并将严重影响当地其他国有企业的融资渠道。

发电设备利用小时数承压：2020年，鉴于广东当地电力需求增长放缓且可再生能源产量增加，广东能源发电设备利用小时数下降了236小时。 惠誉预计，中期内广东能源的燃煤发电设备利用小时数或将承压。与2019年同期相比，截至2021年前两个月，广东能源的并网发电量增长约25%。但惠誉认为，随着可再生能源在能源结构中的贡献增加，燃煤发电面临的竞争将日益激烈，这或将抵消电力市场需求的复苏。

点火价差收窄：随着市场需求的复苏导致煤价上升，加之电价走低，惠誉预计，2021年广东能源的点火价差（电价与单位燃煤成本之间的价差）或将进一步收窄。广东能源拟将其参与市场化交易的发电量占比从2020年的72%提升至2021年的82%。2021年电价折扣有可能增加，原因是长期合约（约占总交易电量的85%）的折扣设定为人民币53元/兆瓦时，而2020年为人民币47元/兆瓦时。

资本支出走高：2021年广东能源拟将其资本支出增至130亿元人民币，主要因为海上风电项目建设加速，这是为了锁定较高的电价。在天然气发电厂及可再生能源相关投资增加的推动下，2022至2023年间，广东能源的资本支出有望降至每年90亿-100亿元人民币。这将改善其业务状况并使其受到的煤价波动中的风险降低；2020年广东能源的燃煤发电厂发电量占其总发电量的74%。但是，资本支出走高亦将在短期内削弱其信用指标。

投资级别的独立信用状况：考虑到点火价差收窄且资本支出走高，惠誉预计，2021年广东能源的营运现金流（FFO）净杠杆率将逾5倍。但惠誉预计，2022至2023年间该公司的杠杆率将回落至4倍左右，这与其‘bbb’的独立信用状况相符。这是由于EBITDA因煤炭采购成本降低而走高，利润率较高的可再生能源在能源结构中的贡献率提升，以及资本支出的降低。以上因素加之广东能源审慎的投资策略与强劲的融资能力，有助于缓解其由于煤电占比较高而造成的较低的电价及发电量的可预见性。

评级推导摘要

惠誉评定广东能源的法律地位及政府持股和控制程度为“强”，而评定北京能源投资（集团）有限公司（京能，A+/稳定）和浙江省能源集团有限公司（浙能，A/稳定）的该指标为“很强”。这是因为，京能和浙能由各自省级国有资产监督管理委员会（国资委）全资拥有，负责执行战略任务并承担社会公共服务职能，受国资委控制的程度高。相比之下，中国华能集团有限公司（A/稳定）对广东能源持股24%，在部分事务中拥有一票否决权，这削弱了广东省政府对广东能源的控制权。

惠誉评定广东能源的政府以往支持力度为“强”，相比之下，惠誉评定京能的该指标为“很强”，原因是京能获得政府大量财政支持，包括每年注资和补贴50亿-70亿元人民币，而该公司每年EBITDA约为140亿-150亿元人民币。相比之下，政府补贴占广东能源EBITDA的比例仅为个位数。

惠誉评定甘肃省电力投资集团有限责任公司（甘肃电投，BBB-/稳定）的政府以往支持力度为“中等”，原因是甘肃电投获得政府直接支持的连续性不如广东能源，且不足以使其财务状况保持在稳健的水平。

此外，惠誉评定广东能源若违约将带来的社会政治影响为“强”，而评定甘肃电投的该指标为“中等”，原因是，广东能源若违约将有损其采购发电用煤的能力，进而影响全省近四分之一的电力供应。广东能源若违约还会严重影响其在省级天然气管网和液化天然气接收站相关基础设施方面的投资。甘肃电投若违约将带来的影响较小，因为该公司占其省内电力供应的比例仅为11%。

惠誉评定广东能源若违约将带来的融资影响为“很强”，原因是该公司为广东省国资委下属最大国有企业之一，并且是一家活跃的境内债券发行人，其债务成本在当地同业中属较低水平。相比之下，惠誉预计甘肃电投若违约将带来的融资影响为“强”，原因是该公司参与资本市场的程度较低。

惠誉评定广东能源的独立信用状况为'bbb'，比申能（集团）有限公司（申能，A+/稳定）该指标'bbb+'的评估结果低一个子级，原因是申能的业务状况和财务状况较好。申能是上海市居于主导地位的天然气分销商和电力供应商，可通过其自有液化天然气接收站采购进口液化天然气。申能的财务指标亦优于广东能源及部分‘a’评级同业。该公司 ‘bbb+’的独立信用状况评级主要受其对火电业务风险敞口的制约。

关键评级假设

- 2023年电力装机达到43吉瓦（2020年末为37吉瓦）

- 火电厂发电小时数承压，原因是可再生能源在能源结构中的贡献或将抵消持续增长的电力需求

- 2021至2023年间煤炭价格随着惠誉的价格假设变化而变化

- 市场交易电价折扣扩大令2020年燃煤发电的售电电价较2019年小幅下调

- 2020年和2021年每年资本支出约为130亿元人民币，2022至2023年间每年资本支出降至约90亿元人民币

评级敏感性

可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取正面评级行动/上调评级的因素包括：

- 广东省政府向广东能源提供支持的可能性增强

- 广东能源的独立信用状况有所改善，包括有记录证明该公司能够在煤价波动下保持盈利能力并进行去杠杆，体现为FFO净杠杆率持续低于3.5倍

可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取负面评级行动/下调评级的因素包括：

- 惠誉下调对广东省政府信用状况的内部评估结果。

- 广东能源的政府相关企业评分低于32.5分且独立信用状况走弱——若FFO净杠杆率持续高于4.5倍，将可能触发前述情况。

最佳/最差情景评级分析

国际信用评级非金融企业发行人的评级在三年评级周期内最佳情景下的评级上调幅度 (定义为以正向衡量的评级转换的第99个百分位数，) 为三个子级，最差情景下的评级下调幅度 (定义为以负向衡量的评级转换的第99个百分位数，) 为四个子级。各评级类别最佳至最差情景的信用评级范围介于“AAA”到“D”之间。最佳和最差情景信用评级的评定基于历史表现。请访问https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579，了解关于特定行业最佳和最差情景信用评级方法的详细信息。

流动性

流动性稳健：2020年9月末广东能源持有可用现金98亿元人民币，可覆盖其59%的短期债务（包括长期债务和短期融资券的当期部分），这对该公司稳健的流动性提供了支撑。得益于其国有企业地位、在广东省能源市场的领先地位及强劲的财务状况，广东能源与国有银行及政策性银行保持着良好关系。此外，2020年末该公司持有尚未使用的银行授信额度2,710亿元人民币，且境内外债务市场融资渠道畅通——其于2019至2020年间发行了5亿美元票据及110亿元人民币境内债券。

与其他信用评级相关联的公开评级

广东能源的评级与惠誉对广东省政府信用状况的内部评估结果相关联，但不等同。

构成评级驱动因素的关键信息来源

评级分析中使用的主要信息来源在下文列载的《适用标准》中已有披露。

环境、社会与公司治理(ESG)方面的考虑因素

除非本节内容另有披露，ESG信用相关度评分最高为3分，表示ESG问题因其性质或受企业管理的方式而对信用的影响为中性或仅对受评企业的信用状况产生极小影响。如需了解惠誉ESG相关度评分的更多信息，请访问 www.fitchratings.com/esg。

注意：本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问，请以英文版本为准。

Guangdong Energy Group Co., Ltd.; Long Term Issuer Default Rating; Affirmed; A; Rating Outlook Stable

----senior unsecured; Long Term Rating; Affirmed; A

UHI Capital Ltd.

----senior unsecured; Long Term Rating; Affirmed; A

Contacts:

首席分析师

Zhihua Zhang,

Associate Director

+852 2263 9617

Fitch (Hong Kong) Limited

19/F Man Yee Building 60-68 Des Voeux Road Central

Hong Kong

第二分析师

Yiying Ding,

Analyst

+86 21 6898 7986

评级委员会主席

Penny Chen,

Senior Director

+86 21 6898 7996

Media Relations: Alanis Ko, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9953, Email: alanis.ko@thefitchgroup.com

Wai Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@thefitchgroup.com

详情参见www.fitchratings.com

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