Adaptive Elliott Wave Probability with Time Analysis

12月22日

Purpose
The indicator helps traders identify and analyze Elliott Wave Probabiliy, dynamically adjusting its sensitivity based on market conditions. By using time intervals between directional changes and validating wave patterns, it provides insights into market trends and their likelihood of continuation.

Configuration
The script includes configurable inputs for the user to adjust:

The sensitivity of wave detection using a zigzag percentage range.
The length of pivots to define significant price movements.
Incremental adjustments to refine wave detection dynamically.
Core Variables
The script uses various variables to store and analyze market data:

Adaptive zigzag percentages start from a baseline and adjust dynamically to reflect changing market conditions.
Time intervals and bar indices are recorded to calculate the duration between directional changes.
Likelihood values are assigned to uptrends and downtrends, normalized for comparison.
Wave Detection
The script detects directional changes in price by identifying pivot highs and lows:

A pivot high is a local peak in the price chart, while a pivot low is a local trough.
Once a directional change is identified, the time interval since the last change is calculated and stored for further analysis.
Wave Validation
The script validates wave patterns using predefined rules. For example:

A valid wave may require that each subsequent time interval in a sequence is greater than the previous one.
This ensures that detected waves adhere to a logical progression, reflecting realistic market movements.
Adaptive Logic
The zigzag percentage adjusts dynamically based on the time intervals between directional changes. This allows the indicator to adapt to different market conditions, ensuring it remains effective during both high and low volatility periods.

Likelihood Calculation
This is calculated by identifying all of the current valid/verified waves in every every zigzag percentage and express the ratio as a percentage/probability

These likelihoods are normalized to ensure they sum to 100%, allowing for direct comparison.
The values are visually plotted on the indicator panel for clarity.
Visualization
The indicator plots:

Uptrend likelihood as a green line.
Downtrend likelihood as a red line.
These plots provide a visual representation of market trends and their potential continuation, helping traders make informed decisions.

Summary
This Adaptive Elliott Wave Indicator provides a robust tool for analyzing market trends and patterns. By dynamically adjusting its parameters and validating wave patterns, it adapts to changing market conditions and provides actionable insights into the likelihood of future price movements. Its visual outputs make it an accessible and effective tool for traders seeking to incorporate Elliott Wave theory into their strategies