At some point of our trading, I guess everyone will experience unpredictable price movements. Times, when we really expect the XAUUSD price to go down, but it goes up. Also after great news for the USD, the Gold price spikes to the moon - just like it happened last Friday 4th April after the NFP news.
Some gurus call it manipulation. I would call it a game, where all participants can influence the outcome to some extend. There is no "correct" price.
But: There is a equilibrium price!
You might ask now, "what the heck is the equilibrium price?"
The indicator verifies the price movement via the USD index. If the price jumps too strongly without UDF moving, it is very likely to be a fake pump and it will revert very soon.
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