INVITE-ONLY SCRIPT
Probability Of Expiring Cone
已更新
This script attempts to give forecasts over the range of the closed price based on the exponentially weighted volatility.
Overall, with the assumption of normal distribution of log return, which might not always hold true, it calculates the approximate/ estimated probability that the current candles will close within the plotted shape. One, two, and three sigma will give the probability of around 68%, 95% and 99% respectively.
This can be used to give you a better sense of what is likely with the current level of volatility, thus assist in risk management and position sizing.
May you be on the right side of the trade.
Overall, with the assumption of normal distribution of log return, which might not always hold true, it calculates the approximate/ estimated probability that the current candles will close within the plotted shape. One, two, and three sigma will give the probability of around 68%, 95% and 99% respectively.
This can be used to give you a better sense of what is likely with the current level of volatility, thus assist in risk management and position sizing.
May you be on the right side of the trade.
版本注释
Migration to Pine V5版本注释
Important Updates:- Add the option to allow the cone to scale with drifts in returns, making it directionally biased
- Add the option to customize the exact numeric probability value
- Increase from 32 forecast series to 64.
- Replace with EWMA Volatility Model with an approximation of GARCH.
仅限邀请脚本
仅限作者授权的用户访问此脚本，并且通常需要付费。您可以将其添加到收藏中，但是只有在向作者请求并获得许可之后，才能使用它。 请联系henryph24了解更多信息，或按照以下作者的说明操作。
TradingView does not suggest paying for a script and using it unless you 100% trust its author and understand how the script works. In many cases, you can find a good open-source alternative for free in our Community Scripts.
想在图表上使用此脚本？
警告：请在申请访问权限之前阅读。
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并不意味着也不构成TradingView提供或认可的金融、投资、交易或其它类型的建议或背书。请在使用条款阅读更多信息。