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利用市场疲软，发布退市机制加重散户恐慌心理，收集带血的便宜筹码？利用市场疲软，发布退市机制加重散户恐慌心理，收集带血的便宜筹码？ 本人对后期行情转好的大趋势仍不改变（仅供参考） Taking advantage of the weak market, issuing a delisting mechanism to increase retail investors' panic and collect cheap chips with blood on them? I still believe that the general trend of the market turning for the better in the later period will not change (for reference only)
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这波牛市上证指数先看到7800点The Shanghai Composite Index reached 7,800 point根据这波牛市上阵指数先看到7800点 在当前全球经济背景下，中国的宏观经济数据和股市表现成为了投资者关注的焦点。特别是在人民币大幅贬值已在强阻力区岌岌可危和特朗普二次上台（大概率对经济环境进行手术刀式改革）全球经济复苏的双重驱动下，中国股市的牛市特征愈发明显。本文将结合宏观经济和成交量技术面对此进行分析，并预测上证指数有望先达到7800点。 从宏观经济角度看，中国经济的韧性和增长潜力是支撑股市上涨的重要基础。近年来，尽管全球经济面临诸多挑战，但中国成功控制了本土疫情，成为唯一保持经济正增长的主要经济体。这不仅提升了国内外投资者对中国市场的信心，也吸引了大量资金流入。此外，中国外贸的强劲表现也进一步增强了市场对中国经济前景的乐观预期，最重要的一点就是货币量化宽松极可能会大放水（最直接影响股票市场的一环）。 在技术面分析方面，上证指数的走势同样呈现出积极的信号。从季线技术形态来看，当前的股市正在形成一个长达15年的上升三角形整理形态。这一形态的突破将是启动大牛市的明确信号。特别是当股市再次上攻紫色下降趋势线时，有望在3500点附近形成真正的突破。短线来看，虽然3550点附近可能存在一定的震荡，但整体上攻4200点的趋势不变。 进一步推算，基于2005-2007年6124点涨幅空间的对比，本轮牛市也有望实现类似的涨幅。如果按此计算，上证指数的目标点位将达到7815点，这与黄金分割目标点位相吻合。此外，考虑到互联网时代信息传播和交易速度的提升，本轮牛市的时间周期可能会相对缩短，有望在2026年国庆节前达到7800点。 综上所述，只是个人愚见，无论是从宏观经济数据还是从技术面分析来看，中国股市都呈现出强烈的牛市特征。投资者应密切关注市场动态，把握投资机会，但同时也需保持理性，注意风险防控。 According to this bull market, the index will first reach 7,800 points Under the current global economic background, China's macroeconomic data and stock market performance have become the focus of investors. In particular, driven by the dual factors of the sharp depreciation of the RMB, which is already in a strong resistance zone, and the global economic recovery caused by Trump's second term (with a high probability of a surgical reform of the economic environment), the bull market characteristics of the Chinese stock market have become more and more obvious. This article will analyze this in combination with macroeconomic and trading volume technology, and predict that the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to reach 7,800 points first. From a macroeconomic perspective, the resilience and growth potential of the Chinese economy are an important basis for supporting the rise of the stock market. In recent years, despite many challenges facing the global economy, China has successfully controlled the local epidemic and has become the only major economy to maintain positive economic growth. This has not only boosted the confidence of domestic and foreign investors in the Chinese market, but also attracted a large amount of capital inflows. In addition, the strong performance of China's foreign trade has further enhanced the market's optimistic expectations for China's economic prospects. The most important point is that monetary quantitative easing is likely to be released in large quantities (the most direct link affecting the stock market). In terms of technical analysis, the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index also shows positive signals. From the perspective of the quarterly technical pattern, the current stock market is forming a 15-year ascending triangle consolidation pattern. The breakthrough of this pattern will be a clear signal to start a big bull market. In particular, when the stock market attacks the purple downward trend line again, it is expected to form a real breakthrough near 3500 points. In the short term, although there may be some fluctuations near 3550 points, the overall trend of attacking 4200 points remains unchanged. Further calculation, based on the comparison of the 6124-point increase space from 2005 to 2007, this round of bull market is also expected to achieve a similar increase. If calculated in this way, the target point of the Shanghai Composite Index will reach 7815 points, which coincides with the golden section target point. In addition, considering the increase in information dissemination and transaction speed in the Internet era, the time period of this round of bull market may be relatively shortened, and it is expected to reach 7800 points before the National Day in 2026. In summary, it is just my humble opinion. Whether from the perspective of macroeconomic data or technical analysis, the Chinese stock market has shown strong bull market characteristics. Investors should pay close attention to market trends and seize investment opportunities, but at the same time they also need to remain rational and pay attention to risk prevention and control.
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12月21日发布下周热点题材量化 Publish next week's hot topics quantitative12月21日量化数据(仅供参考）： 乡村振兴 人工智能 A 节能环保 充电桩 储能 物联网 A 新材料 A 一带一路 A 机器人 A Quantitative data on December 21 (for reference only): Rural revitalization Artificial intelligence A Energy saving and environmental protection Charging piles Energy storage Internet of Things A New materials A One Belt, One Road A Robots A
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本周市场观察与下周展望本周市场大盘微跌，但资金已经重新做了选择，总有标的跑了出来。 本周中国市场轻微波动，整体的调整情况其实是好于预期的，整个市场中，很多个股都调整到了接近支撑的位置，但是大盘依然处于轻微横盘的现象，而并没有在最近的半个月之内跟随多个板块出现回调。 目前的市场是资金轮动占主导，并不是所有股一起涨一起跌，每天都有妖股在飞。 本周对于市场影响最大的事就是美联储降息，本次降息25个基点是预期内的事。不过美联储释放出来明年可能只会降息两次的信号，让市场短期感到恐慌，此前市场预期是认为明年可能会降息四次，所以美国市场在议息会议之后出现了很大的波动。 目前的美国市场处于高估值区间，有一点风吹草动，都会出现较大的波动调整。这一次议息会议带来的美股下跌，就是一个例子。从今往后一个月里，市场已经几乎没有新的消息出现了。中国没有政策，美国没有信息…两边的市场，就全靠资金的博弈来进行推动。 另外值得一提的是，中金公司的同学说商品市场中，农产品可能也快要企稳了… 然后，我们要针对单个市场看一下 1、港A市场 市场在本周是属于既要调整，然后也没跌下去，向上短期又很乏力的状况。大盘缩量调整，是个好的现象。 与此同时，本周市场还有一个板块比较好，通信设备、半导体等。本周市场做了一个选择，伴随着寒武纪的创新高，现在的资金开始往人工智能芯片这个领域去流。 往下周展望，市场还在犹豫的阶段，目前市场仍然在调整期，在横盘调整的这个阶段，资金分化会继续不断转换，这样的行情对于短线选手确实太友好了。对于趋势选手，也要开始找到自己看好的公司，一点一点开始布局了… 在目前的市场行情中，分化只是其一。大盘毕竟影响的还是绝大多数个股，在大盘没有安全起势的时候，绝大多数公司也都很难走出超级的行情。所以在现在的大盘来看，还要再等等，目前大市整体仍然处于调整当中。 2、美国市场 美国市场在议息会议的刺激下出现了一次放量下跌，很多投机资金出现了短期出逃的情况。不过不用过于担心，这个市场从长期来看，行情因为人工智能已经涨起来，估值即便过高，也是出现估值修复式的横盘行情，而很难出现像是2022年时候的超级下跌调整行情。 美国大盘下周先跌后涨最终微涨的概率更大。美股短期的方向没法预判，只能说，稍长期一些的时间里，它不会大跌，如果能伴随一小部分的下跌调整，或许买点机会也会到来。 星球内专属内容： 接下来，是我对下周的行情展望： A/港：我们对下周大盘的判断，认为可能会继续下跌调整。但是在调整过程当中，就需要去看一些强势的个股了（跟人工智能芯片相关的，精华帖中提到过的）。从现在开始，一直到过年，每逢调整，都可以布局，把时间维度稍稍拉长。 美国：下周微涨，不过这点短期变化不重要，大家下周着重我我会发星球里的月度和年度展望，到时候会说的更详细一些。 商品（同学原话）：普遍行情还没到企稳，关注农产品豆粕菜粕这种品种，今后一两周时间里，可能会在众多品种中率先企稳 ——————————————————————————————————— 风险提示：以上仅为个人对于市场的个人观点，不属于任何误导与建议。市场波动无常，超预期的事情时有发生，各位看官理性看待。
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{2024/12/19} 教yi园：上证的调整将会为接下来奔赴4013/4169/4221范围打下坚实基础SSE:000001 大A一直是受到所有人诟病的品种，但多少你要相信资金的敏锐性。 任何的基本面都是滞后于市场的表现，上证后边的走势多少会打破很多人的三观。 人在群体中思维会缺一门，那些你看不到的意外就是接下来市场的表现。 3086/3181/3282范围中是多周期共振的关键支撑范围，任何的调整到位都将会带动上涨的芝麻开花节节高。 还是老惯例，回头再来验证。
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买在哀鸿遍野，卖在人声鼎沸！认知层面的投资第一堂课买在哀鸿遍野，卖在人声鼎沸，炮火中挺进，烟花中撤退，大家恐惧我贪婪，大家贪婪我恐惧。喜绿爱跌、愁红恨涨、追跌杀涨、买阴卖阳，这些都是认知层面的投资第一堂课 上证综合指数（沪指）在不同时间周期下的**供需关系**，结合供需区间和K线走势可以进行分析。以下是详细解读： 1. **供需关系基础理解** - **绿色区域**代表**需求区**（支撑区域）：价格在这些区域附近有较强的买入意愿，通常会反弹。 - **红色区域**代表**供给区**（压力区域）：价格接近这些区域时，会遇到较强的卖出压力，可能回落。 - 通过这些区域可以判断价格反转的潜在区域，并结合K线形态验证供需力量的平衡或失衡。 2. **各周期供需分析** **5分钟图（左上角）** - 价格下跌后反弹，目前接近短期供给区（红色区域）。 - 说明短期卖压较强，如果价格未能突破供给区，则可能回落。 **15分钟图（上中）** - 同样显示一个较强的供给区，价格接近此区域后遇阻下跌。 - 需求区（绿色区域）在更低的位置起到支撑作用。 **1小时图（上右中）** - 价格在供给区附近回落，体现出卖方力量主导。 - 下方需求区有支撑，短期内可能震荡。 **2小时图（右上）** - 价格接近长期供给区后再次回落，显示出更强的卖压。 - 下方需求区分布较大，价格支撑的力度更强。 **4小时图（左下角）** - 价格在供需平衡中波动，短期内需求区提供支撑，反弹动能较弱。 **日线图（中下）** - 日线显示出价格正在触及供需平衡点。 - 如果需求区支撑有效，价格有望在此区域反弹。 **周线图（下右中）** - 价格反弹遇到供给区，显示出较强的卖压。 - 下方需求区支撑仍然有效，长期走势需要关注多空力量平衡。 **月线图（右下角）** - 大级别月线图显示长期供给区压力较大。 - 下方需求区则表现为关键支撑区域，说明中长期需要积累动能突破压力区。 3. **总结与建议** - **短期策略**：价格在5分钟和15分钟图供给区遇阻，短线回调概率较高，需关注需求区的支撑情况。 - **中期策略**：1小时到4小时图供需平衡区显示多空力量相对均衡，可等待突破方向。 - **长期策略**：日线、周线及月线级别显示长期供给区压力较强，投资者需关注需求区的反弹力度以及未来量能配合情况。 Buy in the midst of widespread grief, sell in the midst of a clamor of people, advance in the midst of gunfire, retreat in the midst of fireworks, everyone is afraid but I am greedy, everyone is greedy but I am afraid. I like green and love falling, I hate red and hate rising, I chase falling and kill rising, I buy Yin and sell Yang, these are the first lessons of investment at the cognitive level This technical analysis chart shows the **supply and demand relationship** of the **Shanghai Composite Index** (Shanghai Stock Index) in different time periods, which can be analyzed by combining the supply and demand range and the K-line trend. The following is a detailed interpretation: 1. **Basic understanding of supply and demand relationship** - **Green areas** represent **demand areas** (support areas): Prices have a strong willingness to buy near these areas and usually rebound. - **Red areas** represent **supply areas** (pressure areas): When prices approach these areas, they will encounter strong selling pressure and may fall back. - Through these areas, the potential areas for price reversal can be judged, and the balance or imbalance of supply and demand forces can be verified by combining the K-line pattern. 2. **Supply and demand analysis of each cycle** **5-minute chart (upper left corner)** - After the price fell, it rebounded and is currently close to the short-term supply area (red area). - It shows that the short-term selling pressure is strong. If the price fails to break through the supply area, it may fall back. **15-minute chart (upper middle)** - It also shows a strong supply area. The price encounters resistance and falls after approaching this area. - The demand area (green area) plays a supporting role at a lower position. **1-hour chart (upper right middle)** - The price fell back near the supply area, reflecting the dominant force of sellers. - There is support in the demand area below, and it may fluctuate in the short term. **2-hour chart (upper right)** - After the price approaches the long-term supply area, it fell again, showing stronger selling pressure. - The demand area below is larger, and the price support is stronger. **4-hour chart (lower left corner)** - The price fluctuates in the balance of supply and demand. The demand area provides support in the short term, and the rebound momentum is weak. **Daily chart (lower middle)** - The daily chart shows that the price is reaching the balance point of supply and demand. - If the demand zone support is effective, the price is expected to rebound in this area. **Weekly chart (lower right middle)** - The price rebound encounters the supply zone, showing strong selling pressure. - The support of the lower demand zone is still effective, and the long-term trend needs to pay attention to the balance of long and short forces. **Monthly chart (lower right corner)** - The large-scale monthly chart shows that the long-term supply zone has greater pressure. - The lower demand zone is a key support area, indicating that it is necessary to accumulate momentum to break through the pressure zone in the medium and long term. 3. **Summary and suggestions** - **Short-term strategy**: The price encounters resistance in the supply zone of the 5-minute and 15-minute charts, and the probability of short-term correction is high. It is necessary to pay attention to the support of the demand zone. - **Medium-term strategy**: The supply and demand balance zone of the 1-hour to 4-hour chart shows that the long and short forces are relatively balanced, and the breakthrough direction can be waited for. - **Long-term strategy**: Daily, weekly and monthly levels show that the long-term supply zone has strong pressure. Investors need to pay attention to the rebound strength of the demand zone and the future volume coordination. Through the above analysis of **supply and demand relationship**, the potential price trend can be comprehensively judged by combining trading volume, K-line pattern and market momentum. For traders, the supply and demand area is an important support and pressure point, which helps to optimize entry and exit strategies. 通过以上**供需关系**的分析，可以结合成交量、K线形态和市场动能综合判断价格的潜在走势。对于交易者来说，供需区域是重要的支撑和压力点，有助于优化入场和出场策略。
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