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AAII Sentiment, 26.10.2016

已更新

Umfrageergebnisse für die abgelaufene Woche auf den 25.10.2017:

39,6% (+ 1,7%) Bullish
27,3% (- 6,8%) Neutral
33.0% (+ 5,1%) Bearish

Aussage:
- Der Anteil der Anleger mit Ausblick "bullish" ist auf 39,6 % gestiegen. Dies ist erst das 7. Mal in 2017, dass der Optimismus unter US Anlegern über dem historischen Durchschnitt liegt.
- Der Anteil der Pessimisten ist am stärksten gestiegen. Der Zuwachs beträgt 5,1% auf 33.0%.
- Der Anteil des neutralen Lagers fällt um 6,8% auf 27,3%

Cls:
1. Der Anteil des neutralen Lagers ist deutlich gefallen. Anleger wollen bis Jahresende Performance erzielen und positionieren sich jetzt mehrheitlich short oder long
2. Die grösste Abweichung von den historischen Durchschnittswerten findet sich bei den "Bären" und nicht bei den "Bullen". Die US Märkte sind aktuell auf ATH Niveau. Um ein Top via Sentiment Indikationen identifizieren zu können, sollte das Lager der "Bullen" auf 50% oder mehr ansteigen.
3. Das optimistische Sentiment wächst weiter. Dies entspricht dieser Trading Idea. Der AAII sollte um den Jahreswechsel "peaken", umd Q1 oder Q2 2018 shorten zu können.

Markterwartung: "Long AAII Inverstor Sentiment". Erwartet wird bis zum Jahreswechel ein Anstieg des Anteils "bullish" auf 50%.

注释

Zitat:

"AAII Sentiment Survey:

Neutral sentiment is at a seven-month low as both optimism and pessimism are above their respective historical averages for the first time since February.

The percentage of individual investors describing their short-term outlook for the stock market as “neutral” is at a seven-month low. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows both optimism and pessimism rising above their respective historical averages.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded by 1.7 percentage points to 39.6%. The historical average is 38.5%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, plunged 6.8 percentage points to 27.3%. Neutral sentiment was last lower on March 8, 2017 (23.5%). The drop ends a 25-week streak of readings above the historical average of 31.0%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 5.1 percentage points to 33.0%. This is a seven-week high. The historical average is 30.5%.

Optimism is at or above its historical average for just the seventh time this year. This is also the first time both bullish and bearish sentiment are above their respective historical averages on the same week since February 22, 2017.

There has been a general improvement in optimism since Labor Day. The average bullish sentiment reading during the eight-week period ended yesterday is 37.1%. Over the previous eight months, optimism averaged 33.0%. The improvement has occurred as the stocks have rebounded off of their August lows.

Political drama in Washington remains at the forefront of many individual investors’ minds. (Many are skeptical about the prospects of tax reform being passed.) Valuations are also playing a role, creating concern among some about stocks being overpriced and potentially leading to a correction. Similarly, there are concerns about the current lack of volatility being followed by a downward price move. Some individual investors, however, are encouraged by the continuing economic and earnings growth as well as the market’s upward momentum.

This week’s special question asked AAII members for their perception of the housing market. Just over half of all respondents (51%) described housing as being overheated, becoming unaffordable or otherwise at risk of a decline. Many respondents pointed toward a lower supply of homes for sale, especially at affordable price levels. Nearly 34% believe the housing market will continue to stay strong, in part due to strong demand. Many of the remaining respondents either viewed housing as being fairly valued or described it as varying by geographic area. Several respondents, across classifications, specifically discussed the market environment in their local area."
Source:aaii.com/p/sentimentsurvey

注释

AAII Investors Sentiment: Wöchentliches update

注释

SENTIMENT VIEW:

DAX AKTUELL

Bären geraten in Panik
Auch am Tag eins nach der Entscheidung der Europäischen Zentralbank ist der Dax im Rally-Modus. Die Marke von 13.200 Punkten überwindet der deutsche Leitindex am heutigen Handelstag locker.
app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/boerse-maerkte/dax-aktuell-baeren-geraten-in-panik/20511962.html

注释

AAII Sentiment Survey, Folgewoche: Deutlicher Anstieg auf 45

交易结束：到达目标

Target reached: AAII Sentiment Survey: 21.12.2017, Anstieg des Optimismus an den US-Aktienmärkten auf den höchsten Stand seit Januar 2015. Der hohe Optimismus signaliesiert den Begin der Top-Bildung an den US-Aktienmärkten. Diese Phase kann einige Wochen dauern und aufgrund des hohen Momentums an den US-Aktienmärkten in einem blow off enden. Folgen wird ein counter / minor trend down.

交易结束：到达目标

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices is at its highest level in nearly two years, rising to unusually high level.
December 21, 2017

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices is at its highest level in nearly two years, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. At the same time both neutral and bearish sentiment are lower.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 5.5 percentage points to 50.5%. Optimism was last higher on January 1, 2015 (51.7%). This is just the 11th week this year that bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 38.5%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 3.0 percentage points to 23.9%. Neutral sentiment was last lower on March 9, 2017 (23.5%). The historical average is 31.0%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 2.5 percentage points to 25.6%. Pessimism was last lower on November 9, 2017 (23.1%). The historical average is 30.5%.

Since hitting a near-term bottom of 29.3% on November 16, bullish sentiment has risen for five consecutive weeks. The cumulative increase over this five-week period is 21.1 percentage points. At the same time, neutral sentiment has fallen by a cumulative 11.6 percentage points.

At current levels, optimism is unusually high, meaning more than one standard deviation above its historical average. Historically, the S&P 500 has realized below-average and below-median returns over the six- and 12-month periods following unusually high bullish sentiment readings. An updated table with the historical readings can be found in my Investor Update commentary from last week.

The results for this week were tabulated after the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest meeting, but largely before the tax reform bill was passed. (As the results to this week’s special question show, the majority of individual investors agree with the decision to raise rates.) Our previous polling of individual investors showed that most were not currently making investment decisions based on the pending tax legislation. We’re following up to see if opinions have changed with the special question for the survey period starting today and running through next Wednesday.

This year’s record highs for the major U.S. stock indexes have encouraged some individual investors, though others have expressed concerns about the possibility of a pullback or a more severe drop occurring. Also affecting investor sentiment are earnings growth, economic growth, valuations and the lack of volatility. Washington politics remain at the forefront of many individual investors’ minds.
Quelle: google AAII Sentiment Survey

注释

27.10.2017: "Markterwartung: "Long AAII Inverstor Sentiment". Erwartet wird bis zum Jahreswechel ein Anstieg des Anteils "bullish" auf 50%. "

Ergebnis:
Since hitting a near-term bottom of 29.3% on November 16, bullish sentiment has risen for five consecutive weeks. The cumulative increase over this five-week period is 21.1 percentage points. At the same time, neutral sentiment has fallen by a cumulative 11.6 percentage points.

Die US Aktienmärkte sind mit steigendem Optimismus auf neue All Time Highs angestiegen. Der DAX lief unter steigendem Pessimismus von offshore Investoren aus UK und den USA im selben Zeitraum seitwärts.

交易结束：到达目标

Das AAII Investor Sentiment ist auf den höchsten Stand seit 2011 angestiegen. Die Stimmung ist aktuell bullish. Die Stimmung auf Börsensendern wie CNBC oder Bloomberg ist positiv. Die Aktienkurse steigen auf immer neue All Time Highs. Dieser Trend sollte sich noch ein bis zwei Wochen fortsetzen. Die Märkte werden in dieser Zeit mit sehr hohem Momentum in kurz- bis mittelfristige Tops ansteigen. Die peaks lassen sich anschliessend short traden.