AAPL Weekly Put Play – High-Probability Reversal Setup

AAPL Weekly Signal | 2025-12-01
Instrument: AAPL
Signal Type: Weekly Swing
Direction: BUY PUTS (SHORT)
Confidence: 58%
Conviction Level: Speculative
Expiry: 2025-12-05 (4 days)
Recommended Strike: $280.00
Entry Price: $1.24 (midpoint)
Profit Target 1: $2.48 (100% gain)
Profit Target 2: $3.72 (200% gain)
Stop Loss: $0.62 (50% loss)
Position Size: 2% of portfolio (speculative due to low conviction)
Weekly Momentum: NEUTRAL (+0.82%)
Options Flow: Bearish (High Put/Call Ratio, 1.78)
Risk Level: HIGH – low confidence, short expiry, high theta decay, overbought RSI

Analysis Summary:

Katy AI Prediction: Downward trend from $281.12 → $278.32 (-1.05%), with 78% of predictions below current price. Average target $277.71 (-1.21%).

Technical: Extremely overbought (RSI 83.8), VWAP support $277.96, near weekly high (96% range).

News/Market Context: Neutral to slightly negative; Silver squeeze and rising yields create pressure.

Options Flow: Institutional puts heavily bought; maximum volume at $228 put.

Key Notes:

Weekly directional guidance suggested BUY CALLS, but Katy AI shows strong bearish trajectory.

Extreme caution due to low AI confidence (50%) and short expiry.

Consider partial profits at Target 1 to mitigate theta decay.

Stop loss at 50% to limit downside.