I was able to predict the bottom of Apple accurately (See my related idea below), now lets see if I can predict the top.
Apple is currently right beneath a weekly trendline that has been resistance since 2012. It is also at the 1.618 fib which is a common spot institutions choose to take profit and/or short.
The stoch hasn't crossed over yet, but it is certainly in overbought territory.
This is a great risk reward short, however keep in mind shorting here would be shorting into strength. As in my idea below where I predicted the bottom of Apple, that was buying into weakness. It doesn't always work, but when it does, the reward more than makes up for all the predictions that don't pan out.
Apple is currently right beneath a weekly trendline that has been resistance since 2012. It is also at the 1.618 fib which is a common spot institutions choose to take profit and/or short.
The stoch hasn't crossed over yet, but it is certainly in overbought territory.
This is a great risk reward short, however keep in mind shorting here would be shorting into strength. As in my idea below where I predicted the bottom of Apple, that was buying into weakness. It doesn't always work, but when it does, the reward more than makes up for all the predictions that don't pan out.
交易开始:
As requested in the comments, here are some targets. As you can see, Apple usually bottoms at the .5 fib or .618 fib. Fibs are not magic, they are a grid that banks / institutions use to buy into immense selling pressure to fill their billion dollar orders while retail is panicking. They know other institutions are looking at these levels, which gives them confidence to enter before any reversal confirmation. You can also see the 200 week MA has been amazing support many times in the past which is how I was able to predict the last bottom to the penny.
However today it looks like we broke out slightly above the upper trendline, this may be a fakeout, and for the more conservative trader it may be best to wait until the price closes below this weekly trendline again on the daily chart before entering a short. Also keep in mind that tops usually take much longer to form than bottoms most of the time. Apple usually goes flat for days to weeks and starts curving downward before an impulsive move, so no need to be in a hurry for an entry.
However today it looks like we broke out slightly above the upper trendline, this may be a fakeout, and for the more conservative trader it may be best to wait until the price closes below this weekly trendline again on the daily chart before entering a short. Also keep in mind that tops usually take much longer to form than bottoms most of the time. Apple usually goes flat for days to weeks and starts curving downward before an impulsive move, so no need to be in a hurry for an entry.
交易开始:
Testing the top of the channel as support. I don't expect this to support hold, but I also wouldn't short until we break beneath. The ideal entry would be on the retest of this line as resistance.
评论:
Expect the unexpected I guess, the top of the channel held as support. Still no short entry.
My goal is to find the best risk:reward setups. For instance, if you risk $1,000 at a chance to make $5,000, you can afford to be wrong 4 out of 5 times and still not lose money. I hit my targets over 50% of the time.
