Apple and the Parabolic rally, part 4

2020年2月25日

Lets update this one since markets are in panic. Seems Mr Trump can't even hold this. Was surprised to see how US indices were holding their ground past weeks, even though there were sounds that the economical consequences were much more serious than some people tell us. Even a few friends who work at companies (multinationals, smaller businesses, telling me it's a real shit show in China now, just no supplies and things getting out of hand). But Trump simply can't afford to let the markets drop, because otherwise his reelection is not guaranteed. Now with Corona being in Europe, the panic is prob just too much even for manipulation.

However, i still think there is a good chance, that as soon as sell volume drops a bit, the support buying will come in again and we will get some kind of V shape up (as we have seen countless times past half year). For now, the lower we go, the uglier it will get. Because even the ones who bought weeks/months ago are starting to get in a loss. So it could snowball if more and more people start to cut their losses or protect the profits they have left.

TA, on the left it looks VERY bad now. This because we made a gap below 310, actually still making like an island reversal pattern. This pattern is VERY bearish. When i started my bearish outlook on Apple a while back, in hindsight it was premature, but we can see now that the market never really made a real move since. It has only been topping out since. Even though the market (read nasdaq) kept pumping, Apple under performed. Even though during the blue circle, Apple's earnings were above expectations. That was simply the high of this stock, so many people prob already assumed it would be higher than expected.

For now, there is a simple resistance around yesterday's high around 305/6. This is a must break for the bulls coming week or 2. That will not make it bullish yet, but it will keep the big weight of the bears off of it. We had a bounce from 290ish today and yesterday, so can assume its a support level. Think if that breaks, we could be headed towards the 270/75/.


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Previous analysis:

2020年2月27日

注释

This virus is unfortunately getting out of control it seems, putting a lot of pressure on the market. Now these circumstances are extremely exceptional of course. Don't think anyone knows what the impact could be on the markets. Could the Dow crash to 20K, 15K or 10K or is the low set already?

I do know, target zone of Apple has been clearly reached. So without getting greedy, think closing at least a part is prob a good idea.

It doesn't feel as if bears are really shorting this, but it's mostly just longs selling. So that doesn't give a lot of short squeeze fuel for the bulls i think. But it's all guessing, think it's best to just stick to the plan, at least for a part of it.