ABBV
is a great company. It's part of my long-term portfolio and is one that I've been able to manage well with technical analysis. I am not adding unless I see price fall to 155 or until we get to August/September where it hits its seasonal low. This drawdown has risk of continuation for a number of reasons:
- Momentum was falling as price was rising. Drawdowns after this type of divergence usually have more challenging recoveries.
- The candle body on 4/4 is the spread in price to go against the long term uptrend. These are strong warnings of a reversal.
- It lost the YTD AVWAP and is struggling to hold the VWAP anchored to the November low. If this area fails we'll see investors begin to sell to protect profit.
- There is a large airgap down to 155., which is the lowest that price can fall while remaining in a primary uptrend.
- A fibonacci time zone drawn at momentum crossovers in April 2023 and June 2023 gives a view of an overall price cycle. The next time zone is August 2024, which aligns to a season
