Aptos Market Profile with $100 target

2023年4月28日

Aptos is a very interesting development in the crypto space right now - interoperability between chains is a very important and difficult problem to solve, possibly the largest issue crypto faces right now due to so many different assets. What's interesting about Aptos is what they call 'homogeneous state sharding', in essence, they shard their entire chain and optimize it for different systems and applications whilst maintaining interoperability within their own chains utilizing a 'homogeneous bridge' whilst operating high throughput (150,000 transaction/second) and low latency transactions.
This bridge also bridges between different cryptocurrency chains and stablecoins - the real value in Aptos comes from their Web3 solutions for a wide range of applications from video games built on the platform to enabling businesses the ability to run their entire admin and systems management.

This is the fundamental aspect, I don't want to provide too much information as this is an early project released in October 2022 - a lot of what they can do is speculation at the current moment as they onboard more businesses and individuals onto their Layer1 solution.

I have copied the current information about Aptos from CoinMarketCap and posted it below should anyone wish to know what Aptos is and why any of this matters.


My technical view is in the above idea - I have created a market profile to provide a roadmap to identify risk asymmetry in the market, marking the lowest risk areas with a green box (also red arrows) as these are gaps due to impulse movement creating inefficiencies. Additionally, Support & Resistance is marked by red horizontal lines based on the High, Low, Close, and Open values of Weekly candles.
Blue boxes show Bullish order blocks, alternatively, orange boxes show Bearish order blocks.
Highs and lows of price structure are marked with price tags to visibly show the price value whilst providing a visual high/low structure.
Lastly, I use the Fibonacci tool with binary numbers (powers of 2) on a logarithmic chart to create equidistant levels, these are growth levels - the easiest way to think about this one is how cells divide and multiply which is the growth factor. Another way to see this is realizing that growth is exponential, and the natural logarithm ln(x) is the inverse of exponentiation, as nature grows at an exponential rate, so do the systems we create as we are a product of nature.

Now my technical view has been explained so you're able to understand how I create my approach, and you'll understand how I get to the two targets of $35.35, $69.69 & $135.95. They seem meme-worthy and made up (philosophically they are) however, they're the prices at each growth level. Each level is double the value from the previous level.

Combining my fundamental understanding, which I haven't wholly shared in this idea, with my technical perspective, in the instance, Aptos actually manages to pull off what they plan to pull off and the project doesn't die from one simple mishap, the current price at 2 billion market cap is ~2.5 grow factors away from 20 billion market cap. In theory, this level should be easily achievable should their plan and execution don't trip over the initial hurdle.
In the instance, they do follow through and execute their business plan in the way their whitepaper envisions, a market cap valuation of 200 billion would put that at roughly ~11000 per coin based on their current supply levels, another 10-fold growth. Surprisingly, also exactly on the 2048 growth level.

This is a high-risk play looking to pinpoint the lowest-risk positioning with the largest return based on my understanding of markets, price structure, and behavior. My personal plan is to attribute no more than 2-3% capital to this idea based on the fundamental aspects alone, aiming to buy what I believe are the levels where the bottom in the market will land.
Personal buy targets, whether achieved through panicked market conditions or declining market prices, based on my technical analysis, show a potential bottom at the following price levels:

• 8
• $5.50
  
• 4

Due to the insane risk asymmetry within the market, returns between 2,300% to 24,000%, depending upon the success of Aptos and achieving their goals, as well as how deep the market goes if conditions for the entire cryptocurrency space go negative, are considered.

Let's see what Capitulation & Liquidation brings, should it arrive before the entire cryptocurrency bull market arrives - BTC is 365 days from the halving event after all. Anything is on the table and dips are coming.


Lastly, I don't think I need to say it but I will anyway:

This is not investment or trading advice.

The opinions, methods, and conclusions reached are by myself, for me, shared publicly for purposes of education and ego-stroking in the event the price goes up - or public humiliation if the project fails.




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What Is Aptos?

• *Aptos is a Layer 1 Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchain that employs a novel smart contract programming language called Move, a Rust-based programming language that was independently developed by Meta (formerly Facebook)’s Diem blockchain engineers.
  *Aptos’s vision is a blockchain that brings mainstream adoption to web3 and empowers an ecosystem of DApps to solve real-world user problems.
  *The PoS blockchain can achieve a theoretical transaction throughput of over 150,000 transactions per second (tps) through parallel execution.
  *In March 2022, Aptos raised 200 million in a seed round led by the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z). Other crypto heavyweights like Tiger Global and Multicoin Capital took part in the funding round. Fast forward to July, the startup raised another 1150 million in a Series A round led by Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX Ventures and Jump Crypto.
  *Two months later, Binance Labs made a strategic investment of an undisclosed amount in Aptos, bringing its valuation to 4 billion in September.
  *On Oct. 18, 2022, Aptos announced the mainnet launch, while the Aptos genesis occurred on Oct. 12, 2022.

Who Are the Founders of Aptos?

• *Aptos is the brainchild of Mo Shaikh and Avery Ching, both former employees of Meta. Mo, who is the current CEO of the company, is a founder with years of multinational financial services and blockchain/crypto experience. According to his LinkedIn profile, he specializes in scaling products and has experience in the private equity and venture capital markets.
  *Ching, on the other hand, is the CTO of Aptos. He is a software engineer and was one of the principal software engineers at Meta.
  *The duo worked together on the Diem blockchain project at Meta. Shaikh and Ching decided to join forces to create Aptos Labs when the Diem project was discontinued in January 2022. It, therefore, comes as no surprise that Aptos employs some of the technicalities of Diem.
  *Other members of the Aptos team include researchers, designers, and engineers from Diem.

What Makes Aptos Unique?

• *For a start, the Aptos team claims that its network can process over 150,000 tps. By comparison, Ethereum’s mainnet tps is around 12 to 15.
  *This high transaction throughput is possible through a parallel execution engine (Block-STM) — a byzantine fault-tolerant (BFT) PoS consensus mechanism. For context, most blockchains execute transactions sequentially, which means that a single failed transaction or high demand on the network could hold up the entire chain.
  *In the case of Aptos, all transactions are processed simultaneously and validated afterward. Failed transactions are either re-executed or aborted, thanks to the blockchain’s software transactional memory libraries, which spot and manage conflicts.
  *Aptos is built using Move, a new smart contract programming language that claims to offer advantages to Solidity, the EVM-based programming language. This includes blockchain commands that can be easily verified, modification of private key and modular design of Aptos.
  *New use cases can be realized through Aptos’ upgradeability and configurability, while horizontal throughput scalability — through the natively-implemented sharding feature — provides a better user experience.

How Much Aptos is in Circulation?

• *APT is the native currency of the Aptos blockchain. It has an initial total supply of 1 billion and at the time of writing, its circulating supply is 130 million APT.
  *The distribution is as follows: Community (51.02%); Core Contributors (19.00%); Foundation (16.50%); Investors (13.48%).
  *Under the Community allocation, around 80% are held by the Aptos Foundation and the remaining by Aptos Labs. This will be used to support community growth and Aptos Foundation initiatives, and the remainder will be unlocked monthly over the next ten years.
  *Investors and core contributors are subjected to a four-year vesting schedule from mainnet launch. The Aptos team announced a token airdrop of 20 million APT tokens to early testnet users on Oct. 19, 2022.

Aptos Mainnet Launch

• *As already mentioned, despite raising millions of dollars from investors, Aptos did not launch its mainnet until October 2022. Prior to the mainnet launch, its testnet campaign called “Aptos Incentivized Testnet (AIT)” was running since May.
  *The testnet was divided into four stages – AIT1, AIT2, AIT3, and AIT4. The aim of the campaign was to invite and incentivize developers, node operators, and auditors to launch applications and stress-test the network, ahead of the mainnet launch.
  *On September 9, 2022, the network completed its AIT3 campaign, paving a way for the final testnet. Through the series of testnets, Aptos onboarded over 100 projects, including Solrise Finance, PayMagic, Pontem Network, and MartianDAO.
  *On Oct. 18, 2022, Aptos went live with its mainnet launch, making it the first blockchain to debut on Move technology. At the time this content was published, the mainnet was using the latest version of AptosBFT (version 4), which leverages a Byzantine Fault Tolerance (BFT) consensus protocol. However, the company is already working on AptosBFT (version 5).

What Is Aptos Bridge?

• *On-chain user application protocol called LayerZero Labs launched the Aptos Bridge on October 19, 2022.
  *The blockchain bridge will allow users to transfer ETH, USDC, and USDT from Ethereum, BNB Chain, Polygon, Avalanche, and Optimism to Aptos.

How Is the Aptos Network Secured?

• Aptos uses two consensus protocols – Proof-of-Stake and AptosBFT.
  *AptosBFT is quite similar to DiemBFT, originally developed for Diem. “BFT '' means ‘Byzantine Fault-Tolerant,’ and a network is said to be Byzantine fault-tolerant if it can continue to operate normally even if some of its members go offline or turn malicious.
  *AptosBFT is a custom-made consensus algorithm based on the HotStuff protocol. While there are a lot of background technicalities around how the protocol secures the network, the algorithm analyzes the on-chain state and automatically updates leader rotations to adjust for non-responsive validators without human intervention.

Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/aptos/

This idea is not sponsored by Aptos or CoinMarketCap, I have no affiliation with either company.

2023年7月8日

注释

See that drop to $5.50? That's the 2nd lower leg target.

The last buy level is $4.

8月31日

注释

$4 buy level hit at the beginning of August 2024.