Looks like a correction almost done. There's also a chance for a truncated fifth or a double bottom here stopping at the VWAP:
It all depends on how btc moves from here.
In case of a new low I'd be looking at the lower 1.3x$ range:
with the possibility of a liquidation event sending us towards the macro POC currently sub 1.20$.
It all depends on how btc moves from here.
In case of a new low I'd be looking at the lower 1.3x$ range:
with the possibility of a liquidation event sending us towards the macro POC currently sub 1.20$.
评论:
Brutal! Got the liquidation event, but it went one level deeper than the Macro POC and hit the Macro VAL around 1.05$ (on binance anyway, depending on the exchange there was even more pain).
There is some nice geometry in arithmetic view, hitting the pitchfork median line and a bigger trendline and bouncing off of it from there:
As for the count... I'll admit that I have difficulty getting a straight forward count here that doesn't have some kind of proportions that aren't ideal, like this:
So either it just isn't very ideal, it isn't done yet or it's not an impulse here. I am mindful of the low being taken out at least one more time, but here's an alternative:
Placing the white wave 5 one pivot earlier, the whole correction could be seen as a sideways combo, starting with a flat and finishing with a zigzag:
There is some nice geometry in arithmetic view, hitting the pitchfork median line and a bigger trendline and bouncing off of it from there:
As for the count... I'll admit that I have difficulty getting a straight forward count here that doesn't have some kind of proportions that aren't ideal, like this:
So either it just isn't very ideal, it isn't done yet or it's not an impulse here. I am mindful of the low being taken out at least one more time, but here's an alternative:
Placing the white wave 5 one pivot earlier, the whole correction could be seen as a sideways combo, starting with a flat and finishing with a zigzag:
评论:
Not really much to add to yesterday's update. I mentioned that I was mindful of the low being taken out again. We did get a noticeable wick down, but are already back up above the macro VAL. That one really needs to hold. Seeing a close below that and below 1$ would not look good.
评论:
Not out of the woods yet. Currently sitting below the Macro POC. Needs to get above and stay there to have more conviction in upside:
Macro VAL has moved lower due to PA at these levels.
Some relevant geometry, needs to get above that too:
More relevant geometry. In arithmetic view these Pitchforks seem to want to hold the PA, with the yellow lines currently as resistance:
Same pitchforks in log view are currently giving resistance lines:
Should we actually get another move downwards, while staying with the bullish count, this would be one way to look at it:
Truncations aren't something to primarily assume, but seeing how deep the yellow 3 wicked in this count, this would certainly be a fitting place to get a truncated 5, meaning that the yellow 5 would not necessarily make a new low.
Macro VAL has moved lower due to PA at these levels.
Some relevant geometry, needs to get above that too:
More relevant geometry. In arithmetic view these Pitchforks seem to want to hold the PA, with the yellow lines currently as resistance:
Same pitchforks in log view are currently giving resistance lines:
Should we actually get another move downwards, while staying with the bullish count, this would be one way to look at it:
Truncations aren't something to primarily assume, but seeing how deep the yellow 3 wicked in this count, this would certainly be a fitting place to get a truncated 5, meaning that the yellow 5 would not necessarily make a new low.
Counting the wave C as a contracting diag though could still deliver the suggested lower targets:
And in case of a diag here, wave 4 might not be done yet, even wave 3 might not be done yet - that's the fun part (not) with diags, they can keep going... either way, zones of interest are unchanged.