$ASML consolidation is almost over! PT > 1100

前天

- Reasons to be bullish on Monopolistic ASML :

- Open AI has decided to manufacture their own chips by partnering with AVGO (bullish) and is bearish for NVDA and AMD
- Writing was in the wall, if there's gold rush, everyone will start sourcing their own equipments to be more efficient than relying on others all the time once scale is reached.

- Nonetheless, instead of running to $NVDIA, even hyperscalers would like to have their variants of the chips so that they can keep the money flow internal whenever possible.

- Who would be the beneficiary for the next race for building custom chips in next 4-5 years? I don't know but I do know that ASML would be in a similar position like NVDA was in 2023-2024 where NVDA basically provided shovels to the goldminers ( companies using chips )

- Now, big companies have ambitions to build chips in house which is bullish for AVGO and primarily ASML

前天

注释

Fundamentals wise price targets:

Year |2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 27.79 | 29.18 | 35.11 | 40.18
EPS% | 39.16% | 4.98% | 20.33% | 14.44%

EPS growth is high double digit except 2026. However, ASML is a monopoly therefore, I don't mind paying forward p/e 30

Fair value:
Year |2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Price | 833 | 875 | 1053 | 1205

前天

注释

- ASML is forming inverse head and shoulders on weekly timeframe.

前天

注释

Price Targets based on fibonacci retracements considering top was $1108 on 11 July 2024 and low was $579 on April 07, 2025 :

PT #1 ( fib 0.236 ) : $704 ✅
PT #2 ( fib 0.382 ) : $782 ✅
PT #3 ( fib 0.5 ) : $844
PT #4 ( fib 0.618 ) : $906
PT #5 ( fib 0.786 ) : $995
PT #6 ( fib 1 ) : $1108
PT #7 ( fib 1.618 ) : $1435