RBA Monetary Policy Meeting. AUDNZD bear domination?!

2020年2月29日

RBA is less likely to provide further support to the Aussie dollar and expect any AUD weakness to be mostly channeled through a lower AUD/NZD, where the monetary policy differential may be more evident (given a neutral RBNZ). Market participants in this cross-currency seem to price in ahead of the meeting where we can see a strong bearish pressure for now in the price action for this cross. We have a key level 1.03753 which acted as support in the past and this level has good weigh as it lines up with weekly pivot point s3 and descending channel lower trendline (acts as supports). Break lower through this key level with good bearish momentum should signal us price can dive more near the major support 1.03131 or even further depending on the outlook reaction after the meeting. If RBA ends up neutral or surprise hike bearish may lose its momentum strength.

2020年3月1日

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2020年3月2日

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Westpac expects an RBNZ 25bp rate cut in March (that was a whole lot twist in the story now). Some data released earlier morning from Australia weren't good, to be honest, but the way how revised data came up was unexpectedly higher than last time actual. Newzeland was doing fine with its morning economic release concern to Term of trades even though after the Westpac announcement and some revised data from Australia driven the whole sentiment crazy at this point! We knew that even if RBA was mean to cut the rate on march and RBNZ had no sign of any further ease this pair was priced in on lower more the half % so far but we expected if the bearish tone could live longer fundamentally and technically it wasn't bad but this surprise turn in-game has lost the charm of bear so far I think the actual report released from RBA tomorrow will be interesting to know.