Short term Elliott Wave view in AUDUSD is calling the move lower from April 17, 2019 high (0.7206) as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the chart below, we can see rally to 0.7199 ended wave 2 bounce in Minor degree. Wave 3 is in progress and subdivides as an impulse in lesser Minute degree. Down from 0.7199, wave ((i)) ended at 0.7126 and bounce to 0.7139 ended wave ((ii)). Wave ((iii)) ended at 0.699 and while wave ((iv)) bounce fails below 0.714, expect further downside.
Pair is also close to breaking below March 8 low at 0.6999. If pair breaks below the level, it will create a bearish sequence from January 31 high. Wave ((iv)) bounce can potentially reach 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave ((iii)) at 0.703 – 0.7054 before the next leg lower. Ideally, the rally should not go more than 50% retracement of wave ((iii)) at 0.707 or the structure can change again. The alternate view calls the move lower from April 17, 2019 high has ended. This is however seems less likely based on the momentum. We don’t like buying the pair and expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing.
Pair is also close to breaking below March 8 low at 0.6999. If pair breaks below the level, it will create a bearish sequence from January 31 high. Wave ((iv)) bounce can potentially reach 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave ((iii)) at 0.703 – 0.7054 before the next leg lower. Ideally, the rally should not go more than 50% retracement of wave ((iii)) at 0.707 or the structure can change again. The alternate view calls the move lower from April 17, 2019 high has ended. This is however seems less likely based on the momentum. We don’t like buying the pair and expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing.
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