AUD/USD awaits fundamentals

FX:AUDUSD   澳元/美元
Following a reversal from the upper boundary of the junior descending channel early on Tuesday, the Aussie was expected to move south towards its lower boundary.

This prediction, however, did not materialise, as the rate eventually managed to breach through this pattern and the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. Thus, it seems that the bearish sentiment that has dominated the market for the last three weeks is allaying.

By and large, the market has been quite calm during this session. This might be explained by the fact that traders are awaiting for fundamentals both from the US and Australia that are likely to disrupt this lack of volatility .

The nearest resistance is the distant weekly and monthly S1 circa 0.7570, while the upside is limited by the weekly and monthly PPs and the 200-hour SMA at 0.7720.

AUD/USD was trading between the weekly and monthly PPs for most of the session on Thursday. This range was breached early on Friday when sluggish Australian retail sales released at 0030GMT weighted heavily on the Antipodean currency even after the immediate reaction had allayed.

As a result, the rate was testing the lower boundary of the junior channel circa 0.7667 by mid-session. Mixed US fundamental data at 1230GMT shot the pair upwards; however, it was halted by an intersection of the 55– and 200-hour SMAs at 0.7692.

This demonstrates the strength of this resistance area, suggesting that this cluster might hold during the remaining hours of this trading week. The rate, however, is expected to re-gain value on Monday.

The Aussie was driven by strong downside risks on Friday that sent AUD/USD for a fall down to 0.7640. It was consequently testing the given level for several hours prior to pushing it back up to 0.7664 by mid-Monday.

As apparent on the chart, the upside momentum has allayed near a significant resistance cluster formed by the 100-, 200– and 55-hour SMAs and the weekly PP at 0.7675. It is expected that this area is not breached until all these lines are located at one point.

Technical indicators also support a possible movement south in the upcoming hours.

The Aussie reversing from the 0.7640 area confirmed the existence of a relatively flat ascending channel. Thus, the base scenario favours the rate remaining between the aforementioned resistance and the bottom channel boundary in the 0.7675/0.7640 area.
评论: After bouncing off a medium term patterns resistance line on early Tuesday morning the Australian Dollar began a decline against the Greenback. By the middle of the day’s trading session the pair was about to reach a lower trend line of the active dominant channel up pattern.

Due to that reason the situation has two possible outcomes, which both could be played out right after seeing the right signals.

The pair could bounce off the support and reach for the resistance of the 55-hour SMA near 0.7670.

Or the support can be broken, in which case a decline as low as 0.7620.

AUD/USD re-confirmed the bottom boundary of a two-week ascending channel on Tuesday. Subsequently, upside risks prevailed and set the pair for a 41-pip appreciation. As a result, the rate was testing the 200– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 0.7675 by mid-today.

Given the uncertainty of the situation, two possible scenarios should be analysed. First, an upside breakout is likely to give additional strength to bulls and thus push the Aussie up the weekly R1 or the monthly PP at 0.7705 and 0.7726, respectively. This situation should occur if this resistance area is breached in the upcoming hours.

Second, technical indicators suggest the rate might actually fail at moving past the 0.7680 mark and push lower once again. Downside target—the 0.7630 mark.

Despite breaching a massive resistance cluster formed by the 200-, 100– and 55-hour SMAs and the weekly PP on Wednesday, AUD/USD failed to accelerate and thus entered a short-term consolidation period. This narrow trading range widened today; however, the Aussie was still unable to gain strength and move past the 0.7690 mark.

Even though technical indicators flash bearish signals, it is expected that the Aussie continues to appreciate against the US Dollar, setting the weekly R1 as a possible target until the end of Thursday.

In case of a strong bullish sentiment, the monthly PP and the upper channel line of the junior channel might likewise be reached.

Meanwhile, it is likely that bears dominate the market during the first half of Friday, thus leaving the rate relatively unchanged, compared to mid-today.

AUD/USD has demonstrated high volatility during the past two sessions. Nevertheless, the pair has failed to leave the 200-, 100– and 55-hour SMAs and the weekly PP.

After pushing through this resistance cluster mid-Thursday, it was expected that the Aussie could finally accelerate towards the upper channel boundaries of both junior and senior channel circa 0.7725.

However, the bullish sentiment lost its strength near 0.77 and thus pushed the rate back below the aforementioned SMAs. It is likely that the Aussie tries to repeat this scenario and pushes for the senior channel during Monday and remains in that region until mid-Monday.

Conversely, a continuous depreciation could guide the pair towards 0.7640. The next support is the distant weekly S1 at 0.7614.

Bears were the dominant force for AUD/USD during Friday, as neither of the three SMAs were able to diminish its intraday losses.

Meanwhile, increased global demand for the US Dollar weighted heavily on the pair during Monday morning, as the Aussie opened below its closure level and has not since managed to edge higher.

As apparent on the chart, the rate was testing the bottom boundary of the junior channel mid-session circa 0.7640. Technical indicators suggest that minor downside risks might dominate the pair for the following hours, but it should eventually recover from its day-and-a-half fall.

The rate is likely to push for the 0.7670 mark where the 100-, 55– and 200-hour SMAs are located. Meanwhile, the Aussie is unlikely to move below the weekly S1 at 0.7622.
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