AVZ potentially sits on the world's largest lithium pegmatite deposit. If successfully funded and executed over the next 3-5 years, could cause a huge shake up in the global lithium market and headache to higher cost lithium projects.
Key risks:
1. Geopolitical risk (Project location: DRC)
2. Vulnerability to Australia trade relations. Cashed up YiBin may want to fund this project, but is subject to strict FIRB approval process. Worsening trade relation between Australia and China potentially to further limit Chinese funding
3. AVZ only to benefit to wide-spread adoption of lithium based batteries by mid 2020s. Existing Incumbent Tier 1& 2 producers are already pursuing aggressive expansion plans backed by institutions.
4. Current Spodumene producers has high CO2 footprint
Catalysts:
1. Final Investment Decision
2. Funding partners
3. Off-take agreements
4. Carbon Footprint Reduction / Offset through renewable energy generation & carbon credit purchases.
Trading plan
AVZ has been trading below $0.1 for more than two years with multiple failed attempts to break above the teens.
Recommendation to buy into strength but not weakness.
Speculative Entry: $0.101
Falling Sell: $0.069
Sources:
1. https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/firb-protection-or-extinction-for-critical-mineral-miners-20200428-p54nyu
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HyfCH5VnI&t=1s
Key risks:
1. Geopolitical risk (Project location: DRC)
2. Vulnerability to Australia trade relations. Cashed up YiBin may want to fund this project, but is subject to strict FIRB approval process. Worsening trade relation between Australia and China potentially to further limit Chinese funding
3. AVZ only to benefit to wide-spread adoption of lithium based batteries by mid 2020s. Existing Incumbent Tier 1& 2 producers are already pursuing aggressive expansion plans backed by institutions.
4. Current Spodumene producers has high CO2 footprint
Catalysts:
1. Final Investment Decision
2. Funding partners
3. Off-take agreements
4. Carbon Footprint Reduction / Offset through renewable energy generation & carbon credit purchases.
Trading plan
AVZ has been trading below $0.1 for more than two years with multiple failed attempts to break above the teens.
Recommendation to buy into strength but not weakness.
Speculative Entry: $0.101
Falling Sell: $0.069
Sources:
1. https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/firb-protection-or-extinction-for-critical-mineral-miners-20200428-p54nyu
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HyfCH5VnI&t=1s
评论:
Considering a recent analysis made by @Wiz_of_Oz, falling sell updated to 0.085