$260k Bitcoin in 2023

2020年5月23日

Using previous cycle highs and lows we are able to calculate the next cycle top once we are given the low of $3148 in late 2018 on the BLX chart.


CALCULATING PRICE:

In 2012 bitcoin needed to rise 1487.1% from the lows to reach its previous ATH of $31.90. Once breaking ATH, it went on to gain 3590.66%.
This is a ratio of 2.414538363257347

In 2015 bitcoin needed to rise 618.31% from the lows to reach its previous ATH of $1177.19. Once breaking ATH it went on to gain 1492.93%.
This, again, is a ratio of 2.414538363257347

Assuming December 2018 was the cycle low, we can calculate the next major cycle top if the same ratio holds true.
Bitcoin needs to rise 527.78% from the lows to reach its previous ATH of $19764.51
To calculate the top we multiply 527.78 x 2.414538363257347, which gives us a gain of 1274.35% from the December 2018 lows which puts bitcoin at approximately $261,530


CALCULATING TIME:

Calculating time is much more sketchy due to there being no confirmation of a particular ratio (as there is with price), but we can take a guess.


TIME UNTIL REACHING PREVIOUS ATH:

In 2012 bitcoin took 67 weeks to reach its previous ATH.
In 2015 bitcoin took 103 weeks to reach its previous ATH.
This is a ratio of 1.537313432835821

Assuming December 2018 was the cycle low, we can calculate when bitcoin will reach its 2017 high.
1.537313432835821 x 103 = 158 weeks from the December 2018 lows until bitcoin reaches previous ATH (December 2021)


TIME UNTIL TOP AFTER BREAKING PREVIOUS ATH:

In 2013 bitcoin took 39 weeks to top out after breaking its previous ATH.
In 2017 bitcoin took 49 weeks to top out after breaking its previous ATH.
This is a ratio of 1.256410256410256

Assuming the calculation holds true for reaching previous ATH in December 2021, we can guess the date of the major cycle top.
1.256410256410256 x 49 = 62 weeks from December 2021 until bitcoin reaches its next top (February 2023)