It is a long term BTC analysis based on the weekly log chart.
It is observed that BTC moves in cycles followed by abrupt and accelerated movements upwards with a high volatility.
Timeline
Inception (Jan 2009 - July 2010?) -> 1st acceleration (July 2010? - June 2011)> 1st cycle (June 2011 - Jan 2013) -> 2nd acceleration (Jan 2013 - Nov 2013) -> 2nd cycle (Nov 2013 - Jan 2017) -> 3rd acceleration (Jan 2017 - Dec 2017) -> 3rd cycle (Dec 2017 - to date)
There are two repeating distinguishable phases:
1. A parabolic acceleration of the uptrend followed by
2. A cycle consisting of
-1a. moderate price downtrend (-80-90%),
-2a stagnation/accumulation and
-3a moderate price uptrend (return to ATH)
It is noted that these cycles getting longer in time probably due to the liquidity increase and market maturity.
It is also noted that the acceleration phases are fairly constant ~ 300 - 340 days, 42-50 weeks.
The arch drawing tool was used for charting cycles as it appears to follow the both the bottom and top of the candles close.
It is a ”best fit” charting to highlight the simetrical force towards the middle area of the overlapping arches.
There are clear transition points between acceleration and cycle phases which are the ATH after the acceleration phase and the achievement of the same ATH after the successive cycle has finished.
The signals for investment buy are:
1. weak = ’Point of no return’, once the accumulation phase become an uptrend (7, 30, 50 MA w all moving up, on the top of each other) and
2. Strong = previous ATH.
Assumptions -
the length of the cycles (horizontal) follows the Fibonacci rule, increasing
The acceleration phase (vertical) follows the Fibonacci rules, decreasing (very limited historical evidence to show this)
It is observed that BTC moves in cycles followed by abrupt and accelerated movements upwards with a high volatility.
Timeline
Inception (Jan 2009 - July 2010?) -> 1st acceleration (July 2010? - June 2011)> 1st cycle (June 2011 - Jan 2013) -> 2nd acceleration (Jan 2013 - Nov 2013) -> 2nd cycle (Nov 2013 - Jan 2017) -> 3rd acceleration (Jan 2017 - Dec 2017) -> 3rd cycle (Dec 2017 - to date)
There are two repeating distinguishable phases:
1. A parabolic acceleration of the uptrend followed by
2. A cycle consisting of
-1a. moderate price downtrend (-80-90%),
-2a stagnation/accumulation and
-3a moderate price uptrend (return to ATH)
It is noted that these cycles getting longer in time probably due to the liquidity increase and market maturity.
It is also noted that the acceleration phases are fairly constant ~ 300 - 340 days, 42-50 weeks.
The arch drawing tool was used for charting cycles as it appears to follow the both the bottom and top of the candles close.
It is a ”best fit” charting to highlight the simetrical force towards the middle area of the overlapping arches.
There are clear transition points between acceleration and cycle phases which are the ATH after the acceleration phase and the achievement of the same ATH after the successive cycle has finished.
The signals for investment buy are:
1. weak = ’Point of no return’, once the accumulation phase become an uptrend (7, 30, 50 MA w all moving up, on the top of each other) and
2. Strong = previous ATH.
Assumptions -
the length of the cycles (horizontal) follows the Fibonacci rule, increasing
The acceleration phase (vertical) follows the Fibonacci rules, decreasing (very limited historical evidence to show this)
评论:
Please see the weekly chart. This is a day chart submitted by mistake